American is unhedged, so jet fuel is the swing factor: the company guides about $4.70 a gallon for the fourth quarter, nearly double a year ago, and every 10 cents is roughly $113 million a quarter of cost. Unit revenue is up about 15% and has so far covered most of the fuel hit, so the credit over the next year turns on whether fares hold as fuel eases along the government forecast path into 2027 while non-fuel unit costs keep rising about 3% a year. Capacity growth slows in 2027, which helps fares but spreads fixed costs over fewer new seat miles.
Leverage rises from 8.8x to 14.7x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
The company burns $4.25bn of cash over the next year on the starting case, so liquidity has to fund it.
Net debt grows from $28.30bn to $32.54bn.
Liquidity a year out is $91mm, against $4.34bn today.
Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.
Equipment loans and other notes payable, aggregate
5.65%
N/a
4,926.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bearish
Special facility revenue bonds, aggregate
N/a
N/a
694.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bearish
Total Secured Debt
$25,575.0
19.1x
6.4x
4.7x
5.2x
6.9x
8.0x
11.5x
9.5x
Net Secured Debt
$24,347.0
18.2x
6.1x
4.5x
5.0x
6.5x
7.6x
11.0x
9.1x
PSP1 Promissory Note due 2030
SOFR-based rate ...
4/19/2030
1,757.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bearish
PSP2 Promissory Note due 2031
SOFR-based rate ...
1/15/2031
1,030.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bearish
PSP3 Promissory Note due 2031
SOFR-based rate ...
4/23/2031
959.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bearish
Other debt, discounts and issuance costs
N/a
N/a
202.0
Total Debt
$29,523.0
22.0x
7.4x
5.4x
6.0x
7.9x
9.2x
13.3x
11.0x
Net Debt
$28,295.0
21.1x
7.1x
5.2x
5.8x
7.6x
8.8x
14.7x
13.6x
Adj. EBITDA
$1,339
$3,985
$5,436
$4,906
$3,724
$3,200
$2,219
$2,684
Key Financials
2021A
2022A
2023A
2024A
2025A
LTM
3Q27E LTM
3Q28E LTM
Revenue
$29,882
$48,971
$52,788
$54,211
$54,633
$60,981
$66,811
$68,472
Y/Y Growth
63.9%
7.8%
2.7%
0.8%
9.6%
2.5%
Implied Costs
(28,543)
(44,986)
(47,352)
(49,305)
(50,909)
(57,781)
(64,592)
(65,788)
Adj. EBITDA
$1,339
$3,985
$5,436
$4,906
$3,724
$3,200
$2,219
$2,684
Margin
4.5%
8.1%
10.3%
9.0%
6.8%
5.2%
3.3%
3.9%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Cash EBITDA
$1,339
$3,985
$5,436
$4,906
$3,724
$3,200
$2,219
$2,684
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)
(1,632)
(1,852)
(2,180)
(1,933)
(1,696)
(1,594)
(1,689)
(1,689)
(-) Capex
(208)
(2,546)
(2,596)
(2,683)
(3,779)
(4,358)
(4,777)
(4,896)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other
997
40
547
1,010
1,071
2,661
--
--
Memo: FCF
$496
($373)
$1,207
$1,300
($680)
($91)
($4,247)
($3,901)
% of Debt
1.7%
(1.3%)
4.1%
4.4%
(2.3%)
(0.3%)
(14.4%)
(13.2%)
Liquidity
Unrestricted Cash
$1,228.0
Undrawn Revolver
3,110.0
Total Liquidity
$4,338.0
(-) Debt due through 2028
(3,957.0)
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months
(91.0)
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow
$290.0
Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.
The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.
Key Financials
2021A
2022A
2023A
2024A
2025A
LTM
3Q27E LTM
3Q28E LTM
Revenue
$29,882
$48,971
$52,788
$54,211
$54,633
$60,981
$66,811
$68,472
Y/Y Growth
63.9%
7.8%
2.7%
0.8%
9.6%
2.5%
Implied Costs
(28,543)
(44,986)
(47,352)
(49,305)
(50,909)
(57,781)
(64,592)
(65,788)
Adj. EBITDA
$1,339
$3,985
$5,436
$4,906
$3,724
$3,200
$2,219
$2,684
Margin
4.5%
8.1%
10.3%
9.0%
6.8%
5.2%
3.3%
3.9%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Cash EBITDA
$1,339
$3,985
$5,436
$4,906
$3,724
$3,200
$2,219
$2,684
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)
(1,632)
(1,852)
(2,180)
(1,933)
(1,696)
(1,594)
(1,689)
(1,689)
(-) Capex
(208)
(2,546)
(2,596)
(2,683)
(3,779)
(4,358)
(4,777)
(4,896)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other
997
40
547
1,010
1,071
2,661
--
--
Memo: FCF
$496
($373)
$1,207
$1,300
($680)
($91)
($4,247)
($3,901)
% of Debt
1.7%
(1.3%)
4.1%
4.4%
(2.3%)
(0.3%)
(14.4%)
(13.2%)
Key Drivers
Driver
4Q25A
1Q26A
2Q26A
3Q26A
4Q26E
1Q27E
2Q27E
3Q27E
4Q27E
1Q28E
2Q28E
3Q28E
Sensitivity
Next 12m impact ($mm)
Jet fuel price$ per gallon
2.42
2.75
4.05
3.85
4.70
3.91
3.65
3.58
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
$1,125.0mm on cost of revenue
3,116
Capacity (available seat miles)billion ASMs
74.5
72.0
81.8
80.7
78.9
74.2
84.3
83.1
81.3
76.4
86.8
85.6
$202.5mm on revenue
2,328
Total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM)cents
18.80
19.32
20.45
20.25
21.46
21.07
20.33
20.30
20.80
20.96
20.50
20.55
$806.8mm on revenue
3,502
CASM excluding fuel, special items and profit sharingcents
14.51
15.29
13.93
14.34
14.95
15.75
14.35
14.77
15.40
16.22
14.78
15.21
$806.8mm on other operating costs
1,412
Passenger load factorpercent
82.7
81.3
83.2
83.4
82.7
81.3
83.2
83.4
82.7
81.3
83.2
83.4
$178.7mm on revenue
--
American is unhedged, so jet fuel is the swing factor: the company guides about $4.70 a gallon for the fourth quarter, nearly double a year ago, and every 10 cents is roughly $113 million a quarter of cost. Unit revenue is up about 15% and has so far covered most of the fuel hit, so the credit over the next year turns on whether fares hold as fuel eases along the government forecast path into 2027 while non-fuel unit costs keep rising about 3% a year. Capacity growth slows in 2027, which helps fares but spreads fixed costs over fewer new seat miles.
Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case
$ in millions
4Q25A
1Q26A
2Q26A
3Q26A
4Q26E
1Q27E
2Q27E
3Q27E
4Q27E
1Q28E
2Q28E
3Q28E
Revenue
$13,999
$13,912
$16,735
$16,335
$17,042
$15,768
$17,136
$16,865
$16,995
$16,124
$17,779
$17,573
Y/Y Growth
2.5%
10.8%
16.3%
19.3%
21.7%
13.3%
2.4%
3.2%
(0.3%)
2.3%
3.8%
4.2%
Adj. EBITDA
$1,234
$434
$924
$608
$264
$251
$1,031
$672
$757
$266
$1,026
$635
Margin
8.8%
3.1%
5.5%
3.7%
1.6%
1.6%
6.0%
4.0%
4.5%
1.6%
5.8%
3.6%
Free Cash Flow
($1,904)
$3,412
($351)
($1,248)
($1,376)
($1,298)
($616)
($956)
($881)
($1,309)
($667)
($1,044)
Cash, end of period
1,056
1,002
1,146
1,228
(148)
(1,447)
(2,063)
(3,019)
(3,899)
(5,209)
(5,876)
(6,920)
Total Debt, end of period
28,895
27,605
28,812
29,523
29,523
29,523
29,523
29,523
29,523
29,523
29,523
29,523
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA
7.6x
6.8x
8.6x
8.8x
13.3x
15.1x
14.7x
14.7x
12.3x
12.7x
13.0x
13.6x
Revenue is built from one revenue line, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.
Record Q3 revenue of $16.3 billion, up 19.3%, but a $1.9 billion jump in fuel cost pushed American to an adjusted loss and a lower full-year outlook.
Takeaways
Revenue grew 19.3% to $16.3 billion, above the top of guidance. Premium revenue rose 22.9% and managed corporate revenue rose 27.6%.
Margins compressed. Fuel averaged $3.85 per gallon versus $2.37 a year ago, so operating margin fell to 0.8% before special items. Adjusted net loss was $182 million, or ($0.28) per share.
Non-fuel unit cost (CASM-ex) rose only 3.0%, which the company called the best among network carriers. Reengineering should reach nearly $1 billion of annual run-rate savings by year end.
Operating cash flow was $4.5 billion for nine months against $2.7 billion of capex, so the business still funded its investment despite the losses.
Liquidity was $11.8 billion with more than $26 billion of unencumbered assets and first-lien capacity. Net debt, including leases and pension, was $28.1 billion.
Q4 fuel is expected near $4.70 per gallon, nearly double last year, and 2027 capacity growth will slow. A $95 million nonoperating special item included an impairment of the Republic Airways stake.
Debt and capital
Total debt was $36.4 billion at September 30, including $29.6 billion of debt and finance leases and $6.6 billion of operating lease liabilities. Net debt was $28.1 billion.
The company restated its target of 3.0x net debt to EBITDAR, which it ties to BB credit metrics, and its aim to cut debt and interest expense.
In May the 2014 term loans due January 2027 were refinanced with about $1.1 billion of new loans plus $703 million incremental, now due May 2033 at SOFR plus 3.00%.
In March revolvers under the 2013 and 2014 credit facilities were reset and extended to March 2031, about $1.3 billion and $363 million of commitments.
Year to date the company repaid a $629 million term loan due January 2026, prepaid $1.0 billion of 8.50% senior secured notes and prepaid $310 million of EETC equipment notes.
Debt issuance of $5.9 billion and repayments of $5.3 billion over nine months left gross borrowings slightly higher. No buybacks were discussed.
Guidance
Q4 2026: capacity up 5.5% to 6.5%, revenue up 19.5% to 22.5%, CASM-ex up 2.5% to 3.5%, adjusted loss per share of ($1.10) to ($0.50).
Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS cut to a loss of ($1.60) to ($1.00), from ($0.65) to $0.65 given in July. The company cited a fuel headwind of about $7 billion for the year.
Q3 came in ahead of July guidance on revenue (19.3% versus 16% to 19%) and at the low end on CASM-ex (3.0% versus 2.5% to 4.5%).
2027 network growth is expected to slow from 2026 levels because of high fuel prices.
Tone: Upbeat on demand and cost control but clearly defensive on earnings, with fuel overwhelming record revenue.
Summary written with AI from Press release and earnings presentation only (8-K exhibits 99.1 and 99.2), plus the Q3 2026 10-Q. No company-published transcript or prepared remarks were found.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.
Last quarter: Third quarter 2026
Revenue rose 19% to a record $16.3bn, but a $1.9bn jump in fuel cost drove a $269mm net loss.
Results
Total revenue was $16.3bn ($16,335mm), up 19.3% from $13.7bn a year earlier and above the top of the company's own range of 16% to 19% growth.
Operating income was $115mm versus $151mm a year earlier; excluding net special items it was $132mm versus $158mm, a margin of 0.8%.
GAAP net loss was $269mm ($0.41 per share) versus a $114mm loss a year earlier; net loss excluding net special items was $182mm ($0.28 per share).
Fuel expense rose 67.5% to $4.6bn as the average price paid climbed to $3.85 per gallon from $2.37.
Unit cost excluding fuel, special items and profit sharing (CASM-ex) rose 3.0% on capacity growth of 4.2%.
Why
Fares carried the quarter: yield rose 18.3% and total unit revenue rose 14.5%, while load factor fell 2.6 points to 83.4%.
Premium revenue grew 22.9% and managed corporate revenue grew 27.6%; Latin America passenger unit revenue rose 21.1%.
Fuel was the main drag, adding $1.9bn of expense year over year and wiping out most of the revenue gain.
Below the operating line, other nonoperating expense swung to a $101mm cost, which included an impairment of the equity stake in Republic Airways.
Balance sheet and guidance
Total available liquidity was $11.8bn, including $8.3bn of unrestricted cash and short-term investments; the company cites more than $26bn of unencumbered assets and first-lien capacity.
Total debt including leases and pension was $36.4bn and net debt was $28.1bn at September 30; the company targets 3.0x net debt to EBITDAR but did not state the current ratio.
Over nine months, operating cash flow was $4.5bn and capital spending was $2.7bn; the company issued $5.9bn of new debt and repaid $5.3bn.
Full-year 2026 adjusted loss per share is now ($1.60) to ($1.00), cut from ($0.65) to $0.65 in July and $1.70 to $2.70 earnings in January.
Fourth-quarter revenue is expected to grow 19.5% to 22.5% with capacity up 5.5% to 6.5% and CASM-ex up 2.5% to 3.5%.
Fourth-quarter fuel is assumed at about $4.70 per gallon, which would add about $2.8bn of fuel expense versus a year earlier; adjusted loss per share is guided to ($1.10) to ($0.50).
The company expects 2027 capacity growth to slow from 2026 levels.
What to watch
Fuel: the fourth-quarter outlook assumes about $4.70 per gallon and $2.8bn of extra fuel cost, so any further rise hits a quarter already guided to a loss.
Cash generation: nine-month operating cash flow was $4.5bn against $4.7bn through June, so operating cash flow was slightly negative in the third quarter; the January target of more than $2bn of 2026 free cash flow was not repeated.
Debt path: the company still points to 3.0x net debt to EBITDAR, but full-year losses and $5.9bn of new borrowing this year make progress toward that target worth tracking.
From the company's press release filed Oct 22, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.
Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.
Rating actions
Jul 27, 2026S&P: Expected A on 2026-2 EETC Class A and BBB on Class B. New aircraft-backed pass through certificates with roughly 60% and 75% loan to value. · source
Jul 27, 2026Fitch: Expected A- on 2026-2 EETC Class A and BBB- on Class B. New aircraft-backed pass through certificates, rated one notch below S&P on each class. · source
Jun 3, 2026Moody's: American Airlines, Inc. long-term rating lowered to Ba3 from Ba2, outlook stable. Reported by a data aggregator without the rationale; came as jet fuel costs rose sharply in 2026. · source
Apr 27, 2026S&P: Expected A on 2026-1 EETC Class A and BBB on Class B. New aircraft-backed pass through certificates with about 59.5% and 75% loan to value. · source
Apr 27, 2026Fitch: Expected A- on 2026-1 EETC Class A and BBB- on Class B. New aircraft-backed pass through certificates. · source
Feb 4, 2026S&P: Affirmed B+ issuer credit rating, outlook stable; 2014 slots, gates and routes facilities raised to BB from BB-. Credit measures stayed in line with the rating while collateral coverage on the slot-backed loans improved. · source
Dec 17, 2025S&P: Raised four EETC ratings, including 2016-1A and 2016-2A to BBB+ from BBB. Aircraft collateral coverage improved as the certificates paid down. · source
Oct 27, 2025S&P: Rated 2025-1 EETC Class A A+ and Class B BBB. New aircraft-backed pass through certificates with 58% and 72.5% loan to value. · source
Coming up
Feb 17, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
Feb 15, 2028Maturity. 2013 Term Loan Facility: $960mm outstanding comes due.
Feb 15, 2028Maturity. 7.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2028: $750mm outstanding comes due.
Apr 20, 2028Maturity. 2021 AAdvantage Term Loan Facility: $2,247mm outstanding comes due.