Companies / American Airlines

American Airlines AAL

Air Transportation, Scheduled · Balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026 · $ in millions

S&P B+ (stable)Fitch B+ (stable)Moody's B1 (stable)

Next 12 Months: Starting Case
$ in millionsLast 12 MonthsNext Quarter (4Q26E)vs. 4Q25ANext 12 MonthsChange
Revenue$60,981$17,04221.7%$66,8119.6%
Adj. EBITDA$3,200$264(78.6%)$2,219(30.7%)
Free Cash Flow($91)($1,376)27.7%($4,247)(4566.8%)
Net Debt, end of period$28,295$29,671$32,54215.0%
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA8.8x13.3x14.7x+5.9x
Total Liquidity, end of period$4,338$2,962$91(97.9%)
The credit over the next year

American is unhedged, so jet fuel is the swing factor: the company guides about $4.70 a gallon for the fourth quarter, nearly double a year ago, and every 10 cents is roughly $113 million a quarter of cost. Unit revenue is up about 15% and has so far covered most of the fuel hit, so the credit over the next year turns on whether fares hold as fuel eases along the government forecast path into 2027 while non-fuel unit costs keep rising about 3% a year. Capacity growth slows in 2027, which helps fares but spreads fixed costs over fewer new seat miles.

  • Leverage rises from 8.8x to 14.7x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
  • The company burns $4.25bn of cash over the next year on the starting case, so liquidity has to fund it.
  • Net debt grows from $28.30bn to $32.54bn.
  • Liquidity a year out is $91mm, against $4.34bn today.

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure
Cap StructureAmt Out.Mkt PriceYieldLev. ThroughView
Unrestricted Cash$1,228.0
2021 AAdvantage Term Loan Facility2,247.0100.0%N/a0.7xNeutral
2013 Term Loan Facility960.0100.0%N/a1.0xNeutral
7.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2028750.0100.9%*5.31%1.2xBearish
5.75% AAdvantage Senior Secured Notes due 20292,750.099.9%*5.81%2.1xNeutral
2023 Term Loan Facility1,078.0100.0%N/a2.4xNeutral
2025 AAdvantage Term Loan Facility988.0100.0%N/a2.7xNeutral
2014 Term Loan Facility (2026 Term Loans)1,850.0100.0%N/a3.3xBearish
Enhanced equipment trust certificates (EETCs), aggregate9,332.0100.0%N/a6.2xBearish
Equipment loans and other notes payable, aggregate4,926.0100.0%N/a7.8xBearish
Special facility revenue bonds, aggregate694.0100.0%N/a8.0xBearish
PSP1 Promissory Note due 20301,757.0100.0%N/a8.5xBearish
PSP2 Promissory Note due 20311,030.0100.0%N/a8.9xBearish
PSP3 Promissory Note due 2031959.0100.0%N/a9.2xBearish
Total Debt$29,523.09.2x
Net Debt$28,295.08.8x
Last Twelve Months
Revenue$60,981
Implied Costs(57,781)
Adj. EBITDA$3,200
(-) Interest Expense(1,594)
(-) Capex(4,358)
Memo: FCF($91)
Total Liquidity$4,338.0