Companies / Advantage Solutions

Advantage Solutions ADV

Sales and marketing services · Balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026 · $ in millions

S&P Downgraded from B; new level not stated in public sources (creditwatch negative)

Next 12 Months: Starting Case
$ in millionsLast 12 MonthsNext Quarter (4Q26E)vs. 4Q25ANext 12 MonthsChange
Revenue$3,605$929(0.3%)$3,602(0.1%)
Adj. EBITDA$108($70)5.5%$13120.6%
Free Cash Flow$105($109)(260.3%)($24)(123.2%)
Net Debt, end of period$1,405$1,513$1,4291.7%
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA13.0x13.5x10.9x-2.1x
Total Liquidity, end of period$527$418$503(4.6%)
The credit over the next year

Advantage Solutions is a labor-heavy services credit at about 4.6x net leverage, so the next year turns on whether fast growth in in-store sampling events (Experiential, up 14% to 23% a quarter) keeps outrunning a Branded Services book that has shrunk 10% to 20% a quarter on client losses, insourcing and lower pass-through spending. Margin is the second lever: cost of revenues, mostly hourly field wages, has crept up to 86% to 88% of revenue in 2026, and the new restructuring is meant to take out about $25mm a year net. Each point of cost ratio is roughly $9mm of quarterly EBITDA against about $39mm of quarterly cash interest.

  • Leverage falls from 13.0x to 10.9x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
  • The company burns $24mm of cash over the next year on the starting case, so liquidity has to fund it.
  • Net debt is roughly unchanged from $1.40bn to $1.43bn.
  • Liquidity a year out is $503mm, against $527mm today.

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure
Cap StructureAmt Out.Mkt PriceYieldLev. ThroughView
Unrestricted Cash$131.3
2030 Term Loan Facility1,015.2100.0%N/a9.4xNeutral
9.000% Senior Secured Notes due 2030561.4100.0%9.00%14.6xNeutral
6.50% Senior Secured Notes due 2028 (stub left after the March 2026 exchange)2.0100.0%6.50%14.6xBearish
Total Debt$1,535.914.2x
Net Debt$1,404.613.0x
Last Twelve Months
Revenue$3,605
Implied Costs(3,497)
Adj. EBITDA$108
(-) Interest Expense(147)
(-) Capex(9)
Memo: FCF$105
Total Liquidity$527.0