Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) | Credit Investor

Next 12 Months: Starting Case

$ in millions	Last 12 Months	Next Quarter (4Q26E)	vs. 4Q25A	Next 12 Months	Change
Revenue	$20,073	$5,812	34.7%	$24,058	19.9%
Adj. EBITDA	$729	$563	640.9%	$3,699	407.4%
Free Cash Flow	($485)	$242	257.9%	$2,391	593.1%
Net Debt, end of period	$7,568	$7,326		$5,177	(31.6%)
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	10.4x	5.2x		1.4x	-9.0x
Total Liquidity, end of period	$3,246	$3,488		$5,637	73.7%

The credit over the next year

Cleveland-Cliffs is a price-taker on roughly 57% of its 2026 flat-rolled volume (spot, Stelco and index-linked) and locked on the other 43%, so the domestic HRC index, which averaged $1,195 per ton in Q3 2026 against $843 a year earlier, is what turned adjusted EBITDA from $143 million to $612 million in a year. Management guides Q4 2026 to about $715 million and 2027 to more than $4 billion on fixed-price contract resets and the current futures curve, with all free cash flow and about $500 million of asset sale proceeds going to debt so net leverage falls under 2.5x by mid-2027. The credit risk is that HRC rolls back from about $1,260 toward the $851 2025 average while Steelmaking cash cost per ton, up about $65 from a year earlier, stays sticky: each $100 per ton on the index is roughly $237 million of quarterly revenue.

Leverage falls from 10.4x to 1.4x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
Free cash flow of $2.39bn is projected over the next year, with no itemised debt due in that time.
Net debt shrinks from $7.57bn to $5.18bn.
Liquidity a year out is $5.64bn, against $3.25bn today.
Company guidance for fiscal the fourth quarter of 2026 (quarter only): adjusted EBITDA of $715mm on its own definition.

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure

Cap Structure	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	Yield	Lev. Through	View
Unrestricted Cash	$77.0
Asset-Based Revolving Credit Facility (ABL Facility)	834.0	100.0%	N/a	1.1x	Bullish
6.875% Senior Notes due 2029	900.0	101.4%*	6.35%	2.4x	Bullish
4.625% Senior Notes due 2029	368.0	97.0%*	5.94%	2.9x	Bullish
6.750% Senior Notes due 2030	750.0	100.7%*	6.52%	3.9x	Bullish
7.500% Senior Notes due 2031	850.0	102.8%*	6.84%	5.1x	Bullish
4.875% Senior Notes due 2031	325.0	92.2%*	6.92%	5.5x	Bullish
7.000% Senior Notes due 2032	1,425.0	101.1%*	6.77%	7.5x	Neutral
7.375% Senior Notes due 2033	900.0	101.9%*	7.00%	8.7x	Neutral
7.625% Senior Notes due 2034	1,125.0	102.0%*	7.27%	10.3x	Neutral
6.250% Senior Notes due 2040	235.0	100.0%	6.25%	10.6x	Neutral
Total Debt	$7,645.0			10.5x
Net Debt	$7,568.0			10.4x

Last Twelve Months

Revenue	$20,073
Implied Costs	(19,344)
Adj. EBITDA	$729
(-) Interest Expense	(529)
(-) Capex	(601)
Memo: FCF	($485)
Total Liquidity	$3,246.0

Next 12 months, starting case▲ Revenue $20.07bn → $24.06bn▲ Adj. EBITDA $729mm → $3.70bn▲ Free cash flow -$485mm → $2.39bn▼ Net leverage 10.4x → 1.4x▲ Liquidity $3.25bn → $5.64bn

Cleveland-Cliffs

			9/30/26						Face Value / Adj. EBITDA
Cap Structure	Coupon	Maturity	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	YTM	Next Call	Yield to Call	View	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Unrestricted Cash			$77.0
Undrawn Revolver ($4,750mm facility)			3,169.0
Total Liquidity			$3,246.0

Asset-Based Revolving Credit Facility (ABL Facility)	Base rate plus a...	6/9/2028	834.0	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
Total Secured Debt			$834.0						0.2x	0.3x	0.5x	2.3x	NA	1.1x	0.2x	0.2x
Net Secured Debt			$757.0						0.2x	0.3x	0.4x	2.1x	NA	1.0x	0.2x	0.2x

6.875% Senior Notes due 2029	6.875%	11/1/2029	900.0	101.4%*	6.35%	11/1/2026 @ 103.438	10.77%	Bullish
4.625% Senior Notes due 2029	4.625%	3/1/2029	368.0	97.0%*	5.94%	3/1/2026 @ 100	10.97%	Bullish
6.750% Senior Notes due 2030	6.75%	4/15/2030	750.0	100.7%*	6.52%	4/15/2027 @ 101.688	8.66%	Bullish
7.500% Senior Notes due 2031	7.50%	9/15/2031	850.0	102.8%*	6.84%	3/15/2028 @ 103.75	7.92%	Bullish
4.875% Senior Notes due 2031	4.875%	3/1/2031	325.0	92.2%*	6.92%	3/1/2027 @ 101.625	25.72%	Bullish
7.000% Senior Notes due 2032	7.00%	3/15/2032	1,425.0	101.1%*	6.77%	3/15/2027 @ 103.5	11.75%	Neutral
7.375% Senior Notes due 2033	7.375%	5/1/2033	900.0	101.9%*	7.00%	5/1/2028 @ 103.688	8.35%	Neutral
7.625% Senior Notes due 2034	7.625%	1/15/2034	1,125.0	102.0%*	7.27%	1/15/2029 @ 103.813	8.13%	Neutral
6.250% Senior Notes due 2040	6.25%	10/1/2040	235.0	100.0%	6.25%	N/a	N/a	Neutral
Other debt, discounts and issuance costs	N/a	N/a	(67.0)
Total Debt			$7,645.0						1.6x	2.5x	4.3x	20.8x	NA	10.5x	2.1x	1.9x
Net Debt			$7,568.0						1.5x	2.5x	4.2x	20.6x	NA	10.4x	1.4x	0.6x
						Adj. EBITDA			$4,927	$3,001	$1,798	$367	($201)	$729	$3,699	$4,040

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$20,444	$22,989	$21,996	$19,185	$18,610	$20,073	$24,058	$24,427
Y/Y Growth		12.4%	(4.3%)	(12.8%)	(3.0%)		19.9%	1.5%
(-) Cost of Revenue	(15,910)	(20,471)	(20,623)	(19,122)	(19,470)	(19,764)	(20,756)	(20,786)
Gross Profit	$4,534	$2,518	$1,373	$63	($860)	$309	$3,301	$3,641
Gross Margin	22.2%	11.0%	6.2%	0.3%	(4.6%)	1.5%	13.7%	14.9%
(-) SG&A	(422)	(465)	(577)	(486)	(543)	(575)	(593)	(593)
(+/-) Other Operating Costs, net of D&A	797	920	836	611	1,059	1,036	991	991
EBITDA	$4,909	$2,973	$1,632	$188	($344)	$770	$3,699	$4,040
(+) Add-backs: stock comp, restructuring, impairments	18	28	166	179	143	(41)	--	--
Adj. EBITDA	$4,927	$3,001	$1,798	$367	($201)	$729	$3,699	$4,040
Margin	24.1%	13.1%	8.2%	1.9%	(1.1%)	3.6%	15.4%	16.5%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	(129)	(86)	2	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$4,927	$3,001	$1,798	$238	($287)	$731	$3,699	$4,040
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(299)	(249)	(256)	(255)	(459)	(529)	(589)	(589)
(-) Cash Taxes	--	--	111	30	16	261	--	--
(-) Capex	(705)	(943)	(646)	(695)	(561)	(601)	(719)	(730)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	(1,843)	(329)	614	92	268	(347)	--	--
Memo: FCF	$2,080	$1,480	$1,621	($590)	($1,023)	($485)	$2,391	$2,721
% of Debt	27.2%	19.4%	21.2%	(7.7%)	(13.4%)	(6.3%)	31.3%	35.6%

Liquidity

Unrestricted Cash	$77.0
Undrawn Revolver	3,169.0
Total Liquidity	$3,246.0
(-) Debt due through 2028	(834.0)
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months	(485.0)
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow	$1,927.0

Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.

The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$20,444	$22,989	$21,996	$19,185	$18,610	$20,073	$24,058	$24,427
Y/Y Growth		12.4%	(4.3%)	(12.8%)	(3.0%)		19.9%	1.5%
(-) Cost of Revenue	(15,910)	(20,471)	(20,623)	(19,122)	(19,470)	(19,764)	(20,756)	(20,786)
Gross Profit	$4,534	$2,518	$1,373	$63	($860)	$309	$3,301	$3,641
Gross Margin	22.2%	11.0%	6.2%	0.3%	(4.6%)	1.5%	13.7%	14.9%
(-) SG&A	(422)	(465)	(577)	(486)	(543)	(575)	(593)	(593)
(+/-) Other Operating Costs, net of D&A	797	920	836	611	1,059	1,036	991	991
EBITDA	$4,909	$2,973	$1,632	$188	($344)	$770	$3,699	$4,040
(+) Add-backs: stock comp, restructuring, impairments	18	28	166	179	143	(41)	--	--
Adj. EBITDA	$4,927	$3,001	$1,798	$367	($201)	$729	$3,699	$4,040
Margin	24.1%	13.1%	8.2%	1.9%	(1.1%)	3.6%	15.4%	16.5%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	(129)	(86)	2	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$4,927	$3,001	$1,798	$238	($287)	$731	$3,699	$4,040
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(299)	(249)	(256)	(255)	(459)	(529)	(589)	(589)
(-) Cash Taxes	--	--	111	30	16	261	--	--
(-) Capex	(705)	(943)	(646)	(695)	(561)	(601)	(719)	(730)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	(1,843)	(329)	614	92	268	(347)	--	--
Memo: FCF	$2,080	$1,480	$1,621	($590)	($1,023)	($485)	$2,391	$2,721
% of Debt	27.2%	19.4%	21.2%	(7.7%)	(13.4%)	(6.3%)	31.3%	35.6%

Key Drivers

Driver	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E	Sensitivity	Next 12m impact ($mm)
Domestic HRC index price $ per net ton (quarterly average)	859	980	1,079	1,195	859	980	1,079	1,195	859	980	1,079	1,195	$2.4mm on revenue	--
Average net selling price per ton $ per net ton	993	1,048	1,124	1,177	1,227	1,316	1,316	1,316	1,316	1,316	1,316	1,316	$4.2mm on revenue	3,457
Steel shipments thousand net tons	3,770	4,108	4,025	4,150	4,217	4,108	4,025	4,150	4,217	4,108	4,025	4,150	$1.2mm on revenue	528
Steelmaking cash cost per ton $ per net ton	1,095	1,125	1,168	1,147	1,155	1,162	1,162	1,162	1,162	1,162	1,162	1,162	$4.2mm on cost of revenue	440
Henry Hub natural gas price $ per MMBtu (quarterly average spot)	3.75	4.79	2.95	2.87	3.75	4.79	2.95	2.87	3.75	4.79	2.95	2.87	$12.0mm on cost of revenue	--

Cleveland-Cliffs is a price-taker on roughly 57% of its 2026 flat-rolled volume (spot, Stelco and index-linked) and locked on the other 43%, so the domestic HRC index, which averaged $1,195 per ton in Q3 2026 against $843 a year earlier, is what turned adjusted EBITDA from $143 million to $612 million in a year. Management guides Q4 2026 to about $715 million and 2027 to more than $4 billion on fixed-price contract resets and the current futures curve, with all free cash flow and about $500 million of asset sale proceeds going to debt so net leverage falls under 2.5x by mid-2027. The credit risk is that HRC rolls back from about $1,260 toward the $851 2025 average while Steelmaking cash cost per ton, up about $65 from a year earlier, stays sticky: each $100 per ton on the index is roughly $237 million of quarterly revenue.

Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case

$ in millions	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E
Revenue	$4,313	$4,922	$5,226	$5,612	$5,812	$6,034	$6,023	$6,189	$6,181	$6,034	$6,023	$6,189
Y/Y Growth	(0.3%)	6.3%	5.9%	18.5%	34.7%	22.6%	15.2%	10.3%	6.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Adj. EBITDA	($104)	$46	$216	$571	$563	$1,009	$1,039	$1,090	$903	$1,009	$1,039	$1,090
Margin	(2.4%)	0.9%	4.1%	10.2%	9.7%	16.7%	17.2%	17.6%	14.6%	16.7%	17.2%	17.6%
Free Cash Flow	($153)	($477)	$73	$72	$242	$681	$712	$757	$571	$681	$712	$757
Cash, end of period	57	45	70	77	319	1,000	1,711	2,468	3,039	3,720	4,432	5,189
Total Debt, end of period	7,253	7,763	7,703	7,645	7,645	7,645	7,645	7,645	7,645	7,645	7,645	7,645
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	NA	167.8x	31.2x	10.4x	5.2x	2.8x	1.9x	1.4x	1.1x	1.0x	0.8x	0.6x

Revenue is built from Steelmaking, Other Businesses, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.

Earnings call: Q3 2026 · Oct 19, 2026

Slides Webcast and audio replay Transcript Investor relations site

Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $612 million, beating the $575 million guide; Q4 guided to about $715 million and 2027 to more than $4 billion, with Q4 asset sale proceeds earmarked for debt paydown.

Takeaways

Revenue rose to $5.6 billion from $5.2 billion in Q2 and $4.7 billion a year earlier. Shipments grew to 4.2 million tons and average selling price rose $53 to $1,177 per ton.
Unit costs fell $17 per ton, better than the $10 guided, and drove the EBITDA beat. GAAP net income turned positive at $165 million.
Cash generation was modest. Operating cash flow was $224 million against $152 million of capex, after a $160 million working capital build led by inventory and receivables.
Liquidity was $3.2 billion at quarter end. Long-term debt was $7.6 billion, up from $7.3 billion at year end 2025, though the ABL was paid down $61 million in Q3.
Management expects a large debt reduction in Q4 from higher free cash flow and property sales contracted to close in Q4. Some buyers received closing extensions.
Stelco turned EBITDA positive on hot-rolled pricing, but its galvanizing lines in Hamilton were idled indefinitely. USW labor talks in the US have run past the original deadline.

Debt and capital

Debt reduction is the top use of free cash flow, including after the leverage target is met.
Target is net debt to EBITDA below 2.5x by mid-2027; management said it will keep paying down debt past that level.
The ABL facility will be repaid first from operating cash, followed by reducing senior notes.
Management ruled out issuing equity to delever.
Proceeds from property sales, largely contracted to close in Q4 2026, will go to debt reduction.
Middletown Works modernization rescoped to $1 billion, with $500 million of Department of Energy support, completing in Q1 2030.

Guidance

Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA of about $715 million, up roughly $100 million from Q3 despite seasonal outages.
Q4 average selling price expected up about $45 to $55 per ton; unit costs to rise slightly on maintenance, energy, alloys and diesel.
Q4 working capital expected to be roughly neutral.
2027 adjusted EBITDA expected to exceed $4 billion at prevailing prices, an improvement from the outlook on the prior call. Management called this a raise driven by stronger contract renewals.
2026 capex held at about $700 million; 2027 capex expected just over $1 billion.
Burns Harbor C blast furnace reline moved from mid-2027 to April 2028, adding about 500,000 tons of 2027 output. 2027 coal contracts settled at rollover pricing.

What analysts asked

2027 capex level and the size and timing of Q4 asset sale proceeds.
How much of the 2027 contract renewals are signed, and the new take-or-pay minimum volumes.
Q4 cost and price assumptions and the cost inflation in the 2027 EBITDA bridge.
Q4 working capital and whether an equity raise could speed deleveraging.
Conditions needed to restart the idled Dearborn blast furnace.
Why Q3 volume growth fell short of the prior guide, and auto customer scheduling.
Shipment growth versus market growth in 2027, and Canada versus US price spreads.

Tone: Confident and upbeat, with management stressing a strong 2027 contract cycle and a firm commitment to deleveraging.

Q2 2026Slides · Webcast
Q1 2026Slides · Webcast
Q4 2025Slides · Webcast

Summary written with AI from Company-published full call transcript, plus the Q3 2026 earnings release filed as 8-K Exhibit 99.1. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.

Last quarter: Third quarter 2026

Adjusted EBITDA rose to $612mm, above the $575mm guide, and the company expects about $715mm in the fourth quarter.

Results

Revenue was $5.6bn ($5,612mm), up from $4,734mm a year earlier and $5,226mm in the second quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA was $612mm, against $143mm a year earlier and $286mm in the second quarter.
Net income was $165mm, compared with a loss of $234mm a year earlier.
Steel shipments were 4.15mm net tons at an average price of $1,177 per ton, up from $1,032 a year earlier.
Operating cash flow was $224mm and capital spending was $152mm in the quarter.

Why

Average selling price rose $53 per ton from the second quarter, and volumes and unit costs also improved.
Steelmaking cash margin rose to $685mm from $205mm a year earlier, while depreciation fell to $231mm from $261mm.
The company said low import levels and longer lead times are supporting domestic pricing.
Stelco turned positive on EBITDA as Canadian hot-rolled prices improved; the company is idling its Stelco galvanizing lines indefinitely.

Balance sheet and guidance

Long-term debt was $7,645mm at September 30, down from $7,703mm at June 30 but up from $7,253mm at year end 2025.
Total liquidity was $3.2bn and cash was $77mm; the company repaid a net $61mm on its ABL facility in the quarter.
Receivables rose $723mm over nine months, which held year-to-date operating cash flow to $129mm.
Fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of about $715mm, up from $612mm in the third quarter; higher prices offset by seasonality, maintenance outages, input costs and incentive accruals.
The third quarter beat the prior guide of about $575mm given in the second-quarter release.
The company expects 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4bn, based on signed contracts and current index price forecasts.
Management targets net debt to EBITDA below 2.5x by the middle of 2027.

What to watch

Whether the promised large fourth-quarter debt reduction happens, funded by free cash flow and property sale proceeds.
Whether fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA reaches about $715mm despite outages and seasonality, which matters for the 2.5x leverage target.
Working capital: receivables are up $723mm this year and ABL borrowings are up a net $383mm year to date.

From the company's press release filed Oct 19, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.

Filings

Earnings releases 8

Oct 19, 20268-K for Oct 19, 2026: Results · Press release
Jul 23, 20268-K for Jul 23, 2026: Results · Press release
Apr 20, 20268-K for Apr 20, 2026: Results · Press release
Feb 9, 20268-K for Feb 9, 2026: Results · Press release
Oct 20, 20258-K for Oct 20, 2025: Results · Press release
Jul 21, 20258-K for Jul 21, 2025: Results · Press release
May 7, 20258-K for May 7, 2025: Results · Press release
Feb 24, 20258-K for Feb 24, 2025: Results · Press release

Annual reports (10-K) 5

Quarterly reports (10-Q) 12

Current reports (8-K) 20

Jul 24, 20268-K for Jul 21, 2026: Director or officer change
May 20, 20268-K for May 14, 2026: Shareholder vote
Feb 23, 20268-K for Feb 22, 2026: Director or officer change
Nov 12, 20258-K for Nov 11, 2025: Director or officer change
Oct 31, 20258-K for Oct 31, 2025: Other event
Oct 10, 20258-K for Oct 10, 2025: Material agreement; New debt
Oct 7, 20258-K for Oct 7, 2025: Other event
Sep 8, 20258-K for Sep 8, 2025: Material agreement; New debt
Sep 3, 20258-K for Sep 3, 2025: Other event
May 21, 20258-K for May 15, 2025: Shareholder vote
Feb 6, 20258-K for Feb 6, 2025: Material agreement; New debt
Jan 3, 20258-K for Jan 3, 2025: Director or officer change
Nov 1, 20248-K for Nov 1, 2024: Acquisition or disposal completed
Oct 22, 20248-K for Oct 22, 2024: Material agreement; New debt
Oct 8, 20248-K for Oct 8, 2024: Other event
Oct 8, 20248-K for Oct 8, 2024: Regulation FD
Sep 13, 20248-K for Sep 13, 2024: Material agreement; New debt
Aug 16, 20248-K for Aug 16, 2024: Material agreement; New debt
Aug 13, 20248-K for Aug 13, 2024: Other event
Jul 15, 20248-K for Jul 14, 2024: Material agreement; Other event

Proxy statements 3

Other filings 8

Oct 30, 2025424B5
Oct 29, 2025424B5
Mar 25, 2021424B3
Mar 15, 2021S-4
Feb 10, 2021424B7
Feb 9, 2021424B7
Mar 27, 2020424B3
Mar 20, 2020S-4

Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.

Coming up

Feb 8, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
Jun 9, 2028Maturity. Asset-Based Revolving Credit Facility (ABL Facility): $834mm outstanding comes due.

Cleveland-Cliffs CLF