Goodyear's next year turns on whether replacement tire volume stops falling and the Americas plants run fuller: lower production pushed conversion costs up $458mm year over year in the first nine months of 2026 and cut segment operating income to $305mm from $641mm. Raw materials flip from a $150mm nine-month tailwind to a guided $170mm fourth-quarter headwind as oil-linked inputs reprice, so price and mix (revenue per tire up about 3% a year) has to carry margin. The offsets are the last Goodyear Forward savings (about $110mm guided for Q4 2026) and the Fayetteville plant closure ($90mm of Americas profit in 2027 and $270mm a year from 2028), which matter because $700mm of 2027 notes come due against $812mm of cash.
Leverage rises from 5.0x to 6.5x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
The company burns $230mm of cash over the next year on the starting case, on top of $818mm of debt due, so liquidity has to fund it.
Net debt grows from $6.56bn to $6.79bn; maturing debt is assumed refinanced unless changed in the model.
Liquidity a year out is $3.00bn, against $3.23bn today.
Due inside a year: 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027 ($700mm); 7.625% Senior Notes due 2027 (assumed from Cooper Tire) ($118mm).
Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.
Capital Structure
Cap Structure
Amt Out.
Mkt Price
Yield
Lev. Through
View
Unrestricted Cash
$812.0
EUR 800mm European Revolving Credit Facility due 2028
619.0
100.0%
3.93%
0.5x
Neutral
$2.75bn First Lien Revolving Credit Facility due 2030
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow
$1,282.0
Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.
The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.
The governing debt documents are listed and linked below. The review of baskets and loopholes, and the score, have not been run for this company yet.
Scores and summaries are an analyst-style reading of the documents produced with AI and checked against the text. They are not legal advice. Read the document before relying on any point.
Raw material cost change$mm year-over-year change in segment costs (positive = higher)
10
-88
-91
29
170
170
170
70
0
0
0
0
$1.0mm on cost of revenue
580
Conversion cost change (factory absorption and inflation)$mm year-over-year change in segment costs (positive = higher)
187
155
165
138
211
40
40
50
50
50
50
50
$1.0mm on cost of revenue
341
Goodyear Forward and footprint savings$mm benefit to segment operating income versus prior year
192
107
95
90
110
23
23
23
23
45
45
45
$-1.0mm on cost of revenue
(178)
Goodyear's next year turns on whether replacement tire volume stops falling and the Americas plants run fuller: lower production pushed conversion costs up $458mm year over year in the first nine months of 2026 and cut segment operating income to $305mm from $641mm. Raw materials flip from a $150mm nine-month tailwind to a guided $170mm fourth-quarter headwind as oil-linked inputs reprice, so price and mix (revenue per tire up about 3% a year) has to carry margin. The offsets are the last Goodyear Forward savings (about $110mm guided for Q4 2026) and the Fayetteville plant closure ($90mm of Americas profit in 2027 and $270mm a year from 2028), which matter because $700mm of 2027 notes come due against $812mm of cash.
Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case
$ in millions
4Q25A
1Q26A
2Q26A
3Q26A
4Q26E
1Q27E
2Q27E
3Q27E
4Q27E
1Q28E
2Q28E
3Q28E
Revenue
$4,917
$3,881
$4,250
$4,540
$4,908
$4,051
$4,420
$4,610
$5,018
$4,051
$4,420
$4,610
Y/Y Growth
(0.6%)
(8.7%)
(4.8%)
(2.3%)
(0.2%)
4.4%
4.0%
1.5%
2.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Adj. EBITDA
$539
$265
$212
$306
$331
$247
$201
$266
$414
$242
$196
$261
Margin
11.0%
6.8%
5.0%
6.7%
6.7%
6.1%
4.5%
5.8%
8.2%
6.0%
4.4%
5.7%
Free Cash Flow
$1,335
($893)
($69)
($283)
($3)
($55)
($115)
($57)
$75
($60)
($120)
($62)
Cash, end of period
801
723
861
812
809
754
639
582
657
597
477
415
Total Debt, end of period
6,198
6,985
7,190
7,369
7,369
7,369
7,369
7,369
7,369
7,369
7,369
7,369
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA
2.4x
3.3x
4.6x
5.0x
5.9x
6.0x
6.2x
6.5x
6.0x
6.0x
6.2x
6.2x
Revenue is built from Americas, Europe Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.
Segment profit fell to $174 million and free cash flow was negative $283 million; net debt rose to $6.56 billion, and four days after the call the CEO was replaced while a board strategic review continues.
Takeaways
Sales fell 2.3% to $4.54 billion, but rose 1.6% organically after stripping out the sold Chemical business and Dunlop brand. Tire units fell 3.3% on weak replacement demand.
Margins kept shrinking. Segment operating margin was 3.8%, down 2.4 points. Americas margin halved to 3.6% on poor factory utilization, inflation and tariffs. Cost savings of $90 million and price/mix only partly offset this.
Cash burn continued. Operating cash flow was negative $144 million and free cash flow was negative $283 million, $102 million worse than last year. Nine-month free cash flow was negative $1.25 billion.
Debt is rising again. Total debt was $7.37 billion and net debt $6.56 billion at September 30, up from $5.40 billion net at year end, as working capital built and losses continued.
Leadership and strategy are in flux. A new transformation office will study the operating model, footprint and business portfolio, which leaves room for further asset sales. On November 9 a director became interim CEO, the CFO role is also interim, and the company said a board special committee is still assessing options.
More plant closures add charges. Q3 carried $148 million of rationalization charges, and Goodyear is closing two chemical plants in Niagara Falls and Bayport at an expected pre-tax cost of $55 to $75 million.
Debt and capital
Total debt $7.37 billion and cash $812 million at September 30, 2026, giving net debt of $6.56 billion versus $6.33 billion at June 30.
Funded maturities: about $818 million in 2027, $1.22 billion in 2028, $850 million in 2029, $558 million in 2030 and $2.88 billion in 2031 or later.
In June 2026 Goodyear sold $1.05 billion of 8.875% senior notes due 2032, mainly to retire the $700 million 4.875% and $117 million 7.625% notes due March 2027.
Undrawn lines total about $3.1 billion, chiefly the $2.75 billion U.S. revolver, where the borrowing base was $270 million below the stated amount and $57 million was drawn.
The €800 million European revolver had about $619 million drawn, and the €300 million Pan-European securitization had $228 million used.
No buybacks or dividends were discussed. The new transformation work targets more consistent free cash flow.
Guidance
No full-year earnings or cash flow target appears in the slides. The company gave Q4 building blocks instead.
Q4 drivers: global volume down slightly, unabsorbed overhead about $45 million, price/mix about $60 million benefit, raw materials about $170 million headwind, Goodyear Forward about $110 million benefit, inflation and other costs about $110 million.
Q4 also absorbs about $44 million from the Dunlop and Chemical sales and about $56 million from non-recurring 2025 insurance proceeds.
Full-year 2026 assumptions: capex about $675 million, interest expense about $425 million, rationalization payments about $210 million, cash taxes about $175 million, D&A about $915 million, working capital about neutral.
Direction versus prior guidance is not stated in the company's own materials. Press coverage reports a wider full-year cash outflow outlook and a segment profit run well below the prior framework, so the outlook should be read as weaker.
Tone: Sober and defensive, with management calling results below expectations and pointing to a broader transformation that was soon followed by a CEO change.
Summary written with AI from Press release and earnings slides only, plus the company's 8-K filings. Goodyear does not publish a call transcript or prepared remarks on its IR site or with the SEC.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.
Last quarter: Third quarter 2026
Sales fell 2.3% and segment operating income dropped to $174mm from $287mm as Americas factory costs outweighed pricing gains.
Results
Third quarter net sales were $4.54bn, down 2.3% from $4.65bn a year earlier. Excluding the divested Chemical business and Dunlop brand, sales rose 1.6%.
The company does not report adjusted EBITDA. Its preferred measure, segment operating income, was $174mm against $287mm, a margin of 3.8% against 6.2%. Excluding divestitures it fell $57mm.
Net loss was $238mm, or $0.82 per share, including $148mm of rationalization charges. Adjusted net loss was $31mm, or $0.11 per share, against adjusted income of $82mm.
Tire volume was 38.6 million units, down 3.3%.
Quarterly cash flow is not given. Nine-month cash from operations was negative $764mm against negative $716mm, and capital spending was $481mm against $649mm.
Why
Lower volume cost $77mm, inflation $69mm, and tariffs and other costs $48mm. These were partly offset by $90mm of Goodyear Forward savings and $76mm of price and mix gains over raw material costs.
Americas segment operating income fell to $96mm from $206mm on weak factory utilization and inflation. Replacement volume fell 2.2% while original equipment volume rose 8.7%.
EMEA earned $12mm against $30mm, with replacement volume down 11.3%. Excluding the Dunlop sale its income rose $5mm.
Asia Pacific earned $66mm against $51mm, a margin of 12.9%. Tires of 18 inches and above were 44% of volume, up from 39%.
Balance sheet and guidance
Cash was $812mm at September 30, 2026, against $801mm at December 31, 2025. The release does not state liquidity or leverage.
Long-term debt and finance leases were $6.03bn, plus $990mm due within one year and $349mm of notes payable and overdrafts. At year end these were $5.33bn, $364mm and $506mm.
Accounts receivable rose to $3.08bn from $2.34bn and inventories to $3.75bn from $3.57bn since year end.
What to watch
Fourth quarter working capital release. Operating cash flow was negative $764mm through nine months and debt rose since year end, so the seasonal unwind of receivables and inventory matters.
Americas margin, which fell to 3.6% from 7.5% on factory utilization. Replacement volume fell in every region.
The $990mm of long-term debt now due within one year, and what the new transformation office proposes, including the cash cost of further rationalization after $148mm of charges this quarter.
From the company's press release filed Nov 4, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.
Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.
Coming up
Feb 9, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
Mar 15, 2027Maturity. 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027: $700mm outstanding comes due.
Mar 15, 2027Maturity. 7.625% Senior Notes due 2027 (assumed from Cooper Tire): $118mm outstanding comes due.
Jan 14, 2028Maturity. EUR 800mm European Revolving Credit Facility due 2028: $619mm outstanding comes due.
Mar 15, 2028Maturity. 7% Notes due 2028: $150mm outstanding comes due.
Aug 15, 2028Maturity. 2.75% Euro Senior Notes due 2028 (EUR 400mm): $455mm outstanding comes due.
Nov 22, 2028Maturity. Mexican revolving credit facility ($200mm, undrawn): $0mm outstanding comes due.