Gray Media (GTN) | Credit Investor

Next 12 Months: Starting Case

$ in millions	Last 12 Months	Next Quarter (4Q26E)	vs. 4Q25A	Next 12 Months	Change
Revenue	$3,371	$1,125	42.0%	$3,470	2.9%
Adj. EBITDA	$846	$433	141.8%	$867	2.5%
Free Cash Flow	$256	$248	258.7%	$161	(37.2%)
Net Debt, end of period	$5,610	$5,363		$5,449	(2.9%)
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	6.6x	4.9x		6.3x	-0.3x
Total Liquidity, end of period	$899	$1,147		$1,060	17.9%

The credit over the next year

Gray is a local TV broadcaster carrying about $5.8 billion of debt at 5.70x total net leverage, so the next year turns on how fast record 2026 political cash ($630 to $640 million for the year, $319 to $329 million guided for Q4) goes to debt paydown before 2027, an off-year when political falls to about $10 million a quarter. With political gone, the credit rests on core advertising (about $360 million a quarter and soft organically) and retransmission revenue, where rate increases and the 2026 station acquisitions have to outrun cord-cutting subscriber losses while network affiliation fees and station costs keep rising. Every $10 million a quarter swing in any of these lines is about $40 million a year of EBITDA against a covenant leverage denominator of about $1 billion.

Leverage falls from 6.6x to 6.3x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
Free cash flow of $161mm is projected over the next year, with no itemised debt due in that time.
Net debt is roughly unchanged from $5.61bn to $5.45bn.
Liquidity a year out is $1.06bn, against $899mm today.

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure

Cap Structure	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	Yield	Lev. Through	View
Unrestricted Cash	$154.0
Term Loan D due 2028 (2028 1L Term Loan)	739.0	100.0%	N/a	0.9x	Bullish
10.500% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2029	350.0	105.6%*	7.18%	1.3x	Bullish
9.625% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due 2032	1,150.0	102.6%*	9.04%	2.6x	Bullish
7.250% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2033	845.0	100.0%*	7.25%	3.6x	Bullish
7.500% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2034	750.0	99.9%*	7.51%	4.5x	Bullish
4.750% Senior Notes due 2030	790.0	82.2%*	10.29%	5.5x	Bullish
5.375% Senior Notes due 2031	1,198.0	77.9%*	11.29%	6.9x	Neutral
Total Debt	$5,764.0			6.8x
Net Debt	$5,610.0			6.6x

Last Twelve Months

Revenue	$3,371
Implied Costs	(2,525)
Adj. EBITDA	$846
(-) Interest Expense	(451)
(-) Capex	(114)
Memo: FCF	$256
Total Liquidity	$899.0

Next 12 months, starting case▲ Revenue $3.37bn → $3.47bn▲ Adj. EBITDA $846mm → $867mm▼ Free cash flow $256mm → $161mm▼ Net leverage 6.6x → 6.3x▲ Liquidity $899mm → $1.06bn

Gray Media

			9/30/26						Face Value / Adj. EBITDA
Cap Structure	Coupon	Maturity	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	YTM	Next Call	Yield to Call	View	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Unrestricted Cash			$154.0
Undrawn Revolver ($750mm facility)			745.0
Total Liquidity			$899.0

Term Loan D due 2028 (2028 1L Term Loan)	S + 300	12/1/2028	739.0	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
10.500% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2029	10.50%	7/15/2029	350.0	105.6%*	8.35%	7/15/2027 @ 102.625	7.18%	Bullish
9.625% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due 2032	9.625%	7/15/2032	1,150.0	102.6%*	9.04%	7/15/2028 @ 104.813	10.36%	Bullish
7.250% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2033	7.25%	8/15/2033	845.0	100.0%*	7.25%	8/15/2028 @ 103.625	8.93%	Bullish
7.500% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2034	7.50%	9/15/2034	750.0	99.9%*	7.51%	9/15/2029 @ 103.75	8.65%	Bullish
Total Secured Debt			$3,834.0						6.2x	2.8x	5.1x	3.4x	5.9x	4.5x	4.4x	4.8x
Net Secured Debt			$3,680.0						6.0x	2.7x	4.9x	3.2x	5.7x	4.3x	4.2x	4.6x

4.750% Senior Notes due 2030	4.75%	10/15/2030	790.0	82.2%*	10.29%	10/15/2026 @ 101.583	52.90%	Bullish
5.375% Senior Notes due 2031	5.375%	11/15/2031	1,198.0	77.9%*	11.29%	11/15/2026 @ 102.688	70.69%	Neutral
Other debt, discounts and issuance costs	N/a	N/a	(58.0)
Total Debt			$5,764.0						9.4x	4.3x	7.6x	5.0x	8.9x	6.8x	6.6x	7.2x
Net Debt			$5,610.0						9.1x	4.2x	7.4x	4.9x	8.6x	6.6x	6.3x	6.7x
						Adj. EBITDA			$616	$1,348	$758	$1,142	$651	$846	$867	$799

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$2,413	$3,676	$3,281	$3,644	$3,095	$3,371	$3,470	$3,391
Y/Y Growth		52.3%	(10.7%)	11.1%	(15.1%)		2.9%	(2.3%)
Implied Costs	(1,797)	(2,328)	(2,523)	(2,502)	(2,444)	(2,525)	(2,603)	(2,592)
Adj. EBITDA	$616	$1,348	$758	$1,142	$651	$846	$867	$799
Margin	25.5%	36.7%	23.1%	31.3%	21.0%	25.1%	25.0%	23.6%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$616	$1,348	$758	$1,142	$651	$846	$867	$799
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(178)	(339)	(419)	(394)	(393)	(451)	(477)	(477)
(-) Cash Taxes	(149)	(180)	(50)	(135)	(38)	(56)	(112)	(112)
(-) Capex	(207)	(436)	(348)	(143)	(108)	(114)	(117)	(115)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	11	--	359	138	69	31	--	--
Memo: FCF	$93	$393	$300	$608	$181	$256	$161	$96
% of Debt	1.6%	6.8%	5.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.4%	2.8%	1.7%

Liquidity

Unrestricted Cash	$154.0
Undrawn Revolver	745.0
Total Liquidity	$899.0
(-) Debt due through 2028	(739.0)
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months	256.0
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow	$416.0

Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.

The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$2,413	$3,676	$3,281	$3,644	$3,095	$3,371	$3,470	$3,391
Y/Y Growth		52.3%	(10.7%)	11.1%	(15.1%)		2.9%	(2.3%)
Implied Costs	(1,797)	(2,328)	(2,523)	(2,502)	(2,444)	(2,525)	(2,603)	(2,592)
Adj. EBITDA	$616	$1,348	$758	$1,142	$651	$846	$867	$799
Margin	25.5%	36.7%	23.1%	31.3%	21.0%	25.1%	25.0%	23.6%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$616	$1,348	$758	$1,142	$651	$846	$867	$799
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(178)	(339)	(419)	(394)	(393)	(451)	(477)	(477)
(-) Cash Taxes	(149)	(180)	(50)	(135)	(38)	(56)	(112)	(112)
(-) Capex	(207)	(436)	(348)	(143)	(108)	(114)	(117)	(115)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	11	--	359	138	69	31	--	--
Memo: FCF	$93	$393	$300	$608	$181	$256	$161	$96
% of Debt	1.6%	6.8%	5.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.4%	2.8%	1.7%

Key Drivers

Driver	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E	Sensitivity	Next 12m impact ($mm)
Core (non-political) advertising revenue $ millions per quarter	392	352	357	358	378	361	378	372	409	361	370	350	$1.0mm on revenue	30
Political advertising revenue $ millions per quarter	12	30	83	198	324	14	10	9	13	29	50	185	$1.0mm on revenue	34
Retransmission consent revenue $ millions per quarter	335	339	359	366	370	339	359	366	370	339	359	366	$1.0mm on revenue	35
Network affiliation fees $ millions per quarter	201	197	209	216	216	197	209	216	216	197	209	216	$1.0mm on cost of revenue	15
Station expenses (broadcasting expense excluding network fees) $ millions per quarter	356	358	360	380	419	358	360	380	408	358	360	380	$1.0mm on cost of revenue	63

Gray is a local TV broadcaster carrying about $5.8 billion of debt at 5.70x total net leverage, so the next year turns on how fast record 2026 political cash ($630 to $640 million for the year, $319 to $329 million guided for Q4) goes to debt paydown before 2027, an off-year when political falls to about $10 million a quarter. With political gone, the credit rests on core advertising (about $360 million a quarter and soft organically) and retransmission revenue, where rate increases and the 2026 station acquisitions have to outrun cord-cutting subscriber losses while network affiliation fees and station costs keep rising. Every $10 million a quarter swing in any of these lines is about $40 million a year of EBITDA against a covenant leverage denominator of about $1 billion.

Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case

$ in millions	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E
Revenue	$792	$768	$839	$972	$1,125	$761	$787	$797	$845	$776	$819	$951
Y/Y Growth	(24.2%)	(1.8%)	8.7%	29.8%	42.0%	(0.9%)	(6.2%)	(18.0%)	(24.9%)	2.0%	4.1%	19.3%
Adj. EBITDA	$179	$154	$194	$319	$433	$136	$146	$153	$164	$151	$178	$307
Margin	22.6%	20.1%	23.1%	32.8%	38.5%	17.8%	18.5%	19.2%	19.4%	19.4%	21.7%	32.3%
Free Cash Flow	$69	($18)	$106	$99	$248	($37)	($28)	($21)	($12)	($23)	$3	$127
Cash, end of period	368	259	176	154	402	364	336	315	303	280	283	410
Total Debt, end of period	5,744	5,746	5,808	5,764	5,764	5,764	5,764	5,764	5,764	5,764	5,764	5,764
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	7.9x	8.2x	8.2x	6.6x	4.9x	5.0x	5.3x	6.3x	9.1x	8.9x	8.5x	6.7x

Revenue is built from Broadcasting, Production Companies, All Other Segments, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.

Earnings call: Q3 2026 · Nov 6, 2026

Slides Webcast and audio replay Investor relations site

Record election-year political ad sales lifted third-quarter revenue 30% and nearly doubled Adjusted EBITDA, while refinancings pushed out about $2 billion of maturities.

Takeaways

Revenue was $972 million, up 30% and above the top of guidance. Political ads hit $198 million, a third-quarter record for an election year. Core ads rose 1%, helped by acquired stations.
Adjusted EBITDA was $319 million, up 97%. Net retransmission revenue rose 14% to $150 million. Net income swung to $78 million from a loss.
Nine-month operating cash flow was $258 million versus $177 million. Cash fell to $154 million after $302 million of station acquisitions.
Total net leverage was 5.70x under the credit agreement, with first lien net leverage at 2.54x and secured net leverage at 3.70x.
About $2 billion of maturities were extended, including the revolver. The 10.5% 2029 first lien notes were cut by almost $1 billion, saving over $30 million a year in interest.
Management plans to use political cash to cut debt by $175 million to $200 million in the fourth quarter.

Debt and capital

Total debt principal was $5,822 million at September 30: $739 million term loans, $1,945 million first lien notes, $1,150 million second lien notes, $1,988 million unsecured notes.
In August, $750 million of 7.5% first lien notes due 2034 were issued to redeem $675 million of the 10.5% 2029 first lien notes.
In October, a new $675 million Term Loan G due July 2030 refinanced most of Term Loan D and funded a further $150 million 2029 note redemption. $150 million of Term Loan D and $200 million of 2029 notes remain.
The revolver was cut to $680 million and extended to July 2030. It was undrawn at quarter end.
A $25 million Term Loan G prepayment on November 2 covers all amortization before maturity. The receivables facility was extended to November 2029 at a lower margin.
$50 million of Series A perpetual preferred was repurchased this year for $30 million. The $0.08 quarterly common dividend was held.

Guidance

Q4 2026 total revenue guided at $1,115 million to $1,140 million, versus $792 million a year ago.
Q4 political revenue guided at $319 million to $329 million. Core advertising expected down low to mid single digits.
Full-year 2026 political revenue now expected at $630 million to $640 million, with the election complete. Q3 political had already been raised in late September to $188 million to $195 million.
Full-year 2026 total revenue guided at $3,695 million to $3,720 million and net retransmission revenue at $594 million to $597 million.
Full-year interest expense about $450 million, capex $110 million to $120 million, cash taxes $75 million to $85 million, preferred dividends $50 million.

Tone: Confident, stressing a beat on every guided line and steady progress on refinancing and debt reduction.

Q2 2026Slides · Webcast
Q1 2026Slides
Q4 2025Slides

Summary written with AI from press release and slides only; the company does not publish a transcript or prepared remarks on its IR site or with the SEC. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.

Last quarter: Third quarter 2026

Gray Media beat its third quarter guidance on midterm political ad sales, and Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $319mm.

Results

Total revenue was $972mm, up 30% from $749mm a year earlier and above the top of the revised $950mm to $965mm range.
Adjusted EBITDA was $319mm against $162mm in the third quarter of 2025.
Political advertising was $198mm against $8mm a year earlier; core advertising rose 1% to $358mm.
Retransmission consent revenue rose 6% to $366mm, and Net Retransmission Revenue (after network fees) rose 14% to $150mm.
Net income was $78mm against a $10mm loss a year earlier, after a $40mm loss on early debt repayment.

Why

Midterm election spending drove most of the gain; the company now expects full-year 2026 political revenue of $630mm to $640mm.
Stations bought in 2026 added $66mm of advertising revenue, $37mm of retransmission revenue and $52mm of broadcasting expense in the quarter.
Without the acquisitions, core advertising would have fallen, as political ads crowded out regular advertisers.
Broadcasting expense rose 10% to $596mm, and $52mm of the $54mm increase came from the acquired stations.

Balance sheet and guidance

Debt principal was $5,822mm and cash was $154mm at September 30, down from $368mm of cash at year end after $302mm of acquisition spending.
Total net leverage under the credit agreement was 5.70x (5.73x at June 30); first lien net leverage was 2.54x and secured net leverage 3.70x.
In August and October the company issued $750mm of 7.500% first lien notes due 2034 and a $675mm Term Loan G due 2030, cutting its 10.500% 2029 first lien notes to $200mm and its revolver to $680mm.
Fourth quarter 2026 total revenue of $1,115mm to $1,140mm, against $792mm a year earlier, with political revenue of $319mm to $329mm.
Full-year 2026 total revenue of $3,695mm to $3,720mm and Net Retransmission Revenue of $594mm to $597mm.
Full-year capital spending was cut to $110mm to $120mm from $120mm to $130mm in August; interest expense guidance rose to $450mm from $440mm.
Management plans to use fourth quarter political cash to pay down $175mm to $200mm of debt.

What to watch

Whether the planned $175mm to $200mm of fourth quarter debt paydown happens, and what total net leverage looks like once political revenue drops out in 2027.
Core advertising, which the company guides down low to mid single digits in the fourth quarter and depends on acquisitions to show growth.
Use of the accounts receivable facility, whose capacity fell to about $379mm and was fully drawn at September 30, and the remaining $200mm of 2029 first lien notes.

From the company's press release filed Nov 6, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.

Filings

Earnings releases 8

Nov 6, 20268-K for Nov 6, 2026: Results
Sep 28, 20268-K for Sep 28, 2026: Results
Aug 7, 20268-K for Aug 7, 2026: Results · Press release
May 7, 20268-K for May 7, 2026: Results
Feb 26, 20268-K for Feb 26, 2026: Results
Nov 7, 20258-K for Nov 7, 2025: Results
Aug 8, 20258-K for Aug 8, 2025: Results
Jul 8, 20258-K for Jul 8, 2025: Results; Other event

Annual reports (10-K) 5

Quarterly reports (10-Q) 12

Current reports (8-K) 20

Nov 6, 20268-K for Nov 6, 2026: Regulation FD
Nov 6, 20268-K for Nov 6, 2026: Other event
Oct 9, 20268-K for Oct 9, 2026: Material agreement; New debt; Other event
Oct 9, 20268-K for Oct 8, 2026: Material agreement; New debt; Other event
Aug 21, 20268-K for Aug 21, 2026: Material agreement; New debt; Other event
Aug 18, 20268-K for Aug 17, 2026: Other event
Aug 17, 20268-K for Aug 17, 2026: Other event
Aug 7, 20268-K for Aug 7, 2026: Regulation FD
Aug 7, 20268-K for Aug 7, 2026: Other event
Jul 21, 20268-K for Jul 21, 2026: Other event
Jul 1, 20268-K for Jun 29, 2026: Material agreement; New debt; Regulation FD; Other event
May 7, 20268-K for May 1, 2026: Acquisition or disposal completed; Regulation FD
May 7, 20268-K for May 7, 2026: Regulation FD
May 7, 20268-K for May 7, 2026: Other event
May 6, 20268-K for May 6, 2026: Shareholder vote
Apr 1, 20268-K for Mar 31, 2026: Material agreement; New debt
Feb 26, 20268-K for Feb 26, 2026: Regulation FD
Feb 26, 20268-K for Feb 26, 2026: Other event
Dec 18, 20258-K for Dec 18, 2025: Other event
Dec 12, 20258-K for Dec 12, 2025: Material agreement; New debt; Other event

Proxy statements 3

Other filings 8

Mar 22, 2019424B7
Jan 22, 2019424B7
Jan 14, 2019424B7
Dec 1, 2017424B5
Nov 27, 2017424B5
Mar 27, 2015424B5
Mar 23, 2015424B5
Nov 13, 2013424B3

Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.

Coming up

Feb 25, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
Dec 1, 2028Maturity. Term Loan D due 2028 (2028 1L Term Loan): $739mm outstanding comes due.

Recent 8-K filings

Nov 6, 2026Regulation FD disclosure
Nov 6, 2026Other event
Nov 6, 2026Reported results
Oct 9, 2026Entered into a material agreement; Took on new debt or an obligation; Other event
Oct 9, 2026Entered into a material agreement; Took on new debt or an obligation; Other event
Sep 28, 2026Reported results
Aug 21, 2026Entered into a material agreement; Took on new debt or an obligation; Other event
Aug 18, 2026Other event