Hilton Domestic Operating Co (HLT)

Next 12 Months: Starting Case

$ in millions	Last 12 Months	Next Quarter (4Q26E)	vs. 4Q25A	Next 12 Months	Change
Revenue	$12,690	$3,123	1.2%	$12,847	1.2%
Adj. EBITDA	$3,445	$760	11.1%	$3,624	5.2%
Free Cash Flow	$1,931	$323	86.9%	$1,875	(2.9%)
Net Debt, end of period	$12,583	$12,260		$10,708	(14.9%)
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	3.7x	3.5x		3.0x	-0.7x
Total Liquidity, end of period	$2,668	$2,991		$4,543	70.3%

The credit over the next year

Hilton is an asset-light fee business, so the next year turns on two things: comparable RevPAR, which management guides up 3.0% to 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026 after a 5.8% third quarter helped by the World Cup, and net unit growth of 6% to 7% from a 543,100 room pipeline. Fees from the co-branded credit card and timeshare licenses add steady growth that does not depend on hotel demand. The watch items are softer Middle East and Asia Pacific results, which hit incentive fees, and about $13.5 billion of debt, which is serviced comfortably by roughly $4.07 billion of 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance but leaves the $600 million April 2027 notes to refinance.

Leverage falls from 3.7x to 3.0x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
Free cash flow of $1.87bn is projected over the next year, enough to cover the $600mm of debt due in that time.
Net debt shrinks from $12.58bn to $10.71bn; maturing debt is assumed refinanced unless changed in the model.
Liquidity a year out is $4.54bn, against $2.67bn today.
Company guidance for fiscal 2026: adjusted EBITDA of $4.06bn to $4.08bn on its own definition.

Due inside a year: 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027 ($600mm).

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure

Cap Structure	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	Yield	Lev. Through	View
Unrestricted Cash	$774.0
Senior Secured Term Loan B-4 due 2030	3,119.0	100.0%	5.65%	0.9x	Bullish
Finance lease liabilities (including consolidated VIE debt)	334.0	100.0%	N/a	1.0x	Bullish
4.875% Senior Notes due 2027	600.0	99.9%*	5.07%	1.2x	Bullish
3.750% Senior Notes due 2029	800.0	96.2%*	5.39%	1.4x	Bullish
5.875% Senior Notes due 2029	550.0	100.8%*	5.54%	1.6x	Bullish
4.875% Senior Notes due 2030	1,000.0	98.9%*	5.23%	1.9x	Bullish
4.000% Senior Notes due 2031	1,100.0	94.0%*	5.53%	2.2x	Bullish
5.500% Senior Notes due 2031	1,000.0	99.6%*	5.59%	2.5x	Bullish
3.625% Senior Notes due 2032	1,500.0	90.9%*	5.58%	2.9x	Bullish
6.125% Senior Notes due 2032	450.0	101.2%*	5.87%	3.0x	Bullish
5.875% Senior Notes due 2033	1,000.0	100.2%*	5.83%	3.3x	Bullish
5.750% Senior Notes due 2033	1,000.0	99.8%*	5.78%	3.6x	Bullish
5.500% Senior Notes due 2034	1,000.0	98.3%*	5.79%	3.9x	Bullish
Total Debt	$13,357.0			3.9x
Net Debt	$12,583.0			3.7x

Last Twelve Months

Revenue	$12,690
Implied Costs	(9,245)
Adj. EBITDA	$3,445
(-) Interest Expense	(656)
(-) Capex	(83)
Memo: FCF	$1,931
Total Liquidity	$2,668.0

Next 12 months, starting case▶ Revenue $12.69bn → $12.85bn▲ Adj. EBITDA $3.45bn → $3.62bn▼ Free cash flow $1.93bn → $1.87bn▼ Net leverage 3.7x → 3.0x▲ Liquidity $2.67bn → $4.54bn

Hilton Domestic Operating Co

			9/30/26						Face Value / Adj. EBITDA
Cap Structure	Coupon	Maturity	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	YTM	Next Call	Yield to Call	View	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Unrestricted Cash			$774.0
Undrawn Revolver ($2,000mm facility)			1,894.0
Total Liquidity			$2,668.0

Senior Secured Term Loan B-4 due 2030	5.65%	11/8/2030	3,119.0	100.0%	5.65%	N/a	N/a	Bullish
Finance lease liabilities (including consolidated VIE debt)	4.60%	N/a	334.0	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
Total Secured Debt			$3,453.0						2.5x	1.4x	1.3x	1.3x	1.1x	1.0x	1.0x	0.9x
Net Secured Debt			$2,679.0						1.9x	1.1x	1.0x	1.0x	0.9x	0.8x	0.7x	0.7x

4.875% Senior Notes due 2027	4.875%	4/1/2027	600.0	99.9%*	5.07%	4/1/2025 @ 100	5.07%	Bullish
3.750% Senior Notes due 2029	3.75%	5/1/2029	800.0	96.2%*	5.39%	5/1/2026 @ 100	11.75%	Bullish
5.875% Senior Notes due 2029	5.875%	4/1/2029	550.0	100.8%*	5.54%	4/1/2027 @ 101.469	7.22%	Bullish
4.875% Senior Notes due 2030	4.875%	1/15/2030	1,000.0	98.9%*	5.23%	1/15/2027 @ 100.8125	8.85%	Bullish
4.000% Senior Notes due 2031	4.00%	5/1/2031	1,100.0	94.0%*	5.53%	5/1/2027 @ 101.333	19.93%	Bullish
5.500% Senior Notes due 2031	5.50%	9/15/2031	1,000.0	99.6%*	5.59%	5/15/2028 @ 102.75	7.55%	Bullish
3.625% Senior Notes due 2032	3.625%	2/15/2032	1,500.0	90.9%*	5.58%	8/15/2027 @ 101.208	14.95%	Bullish
6.125% Senior Notes due 2032	6.125%	4/1/2032	450.0	101.2%*	5.87%	4/1/2027 @ 103.063	9.80%	Bullish
5.875% Senior Notes due 2033	5.875%	3/15/2033	1,000.0	100.2%*	5.83%	3/15/2028 @ 102.938	7.59%	Bullish
5.750% Senior Notes due 2033	5.75%	9/15/2033	1,000.0	99.8%*	5.78%	7/1/2028 @ 102.875	7.20%	Bullish
5.500% Senior Notes due 2034	5.50%	3/31/2034	1,000.0	98.3%*	5.79%	12/1/2028 @ 102.75	7.75%	Bullish
Other debt, discounts and issuance costs	N/a	N/a	(96.0)
Total Debt			$13,357.0						9.6x	5.5x	5.2x	5.0x	4.4x	3.9x	3.7x	3.6x
Net Debt			$12,583.0						9.0x	5.2x	4.9x	4.7x	4.1x	3.7x	3.0x	2.3x
						Adj. EBITDA			$1,391	$2,418	$2,579	$2,692	$3,040	$3,445	$3,624	$3,756

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$5,788	$8,773	$10,235	$11,174	$12,039	$12,690	$12,847	$13,002
Y/Y Growth		51.6%	16.7%	9.2%	7.7%		1.2%	1.2%
Implied Costs	(4,397)	(6,355)	(7,656)	(8,482)	(8,999)	(9,245)	(9,223)	(9,245)
Adj. EBITDA	$1,391	$2,418	$2,579	$2,692	$3,040	$3,445	$3,624	$3,756
Margin	24.0%	27.6%	25.2%	24.1%	25.3%	27.1%	28.2%	28.9%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$1,391	$2,418	$2,579	$2,692	$3,040	$3,445	$3,624	$3,756
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(359)	(385)	(492)	(562)	(648)	(656)	(741)	(741)
(-) Cash Taxes	(181)	(389)	(478)	(492)	(523)	(924)	(924)	(924)
(-) Capex	(35)	(39)	(151)	(96)	(101)	(83)	(84)	(85)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	(742)	37	337	375	260	149	--	--
Memo: FCF	$74	$1,642	$1,795	$1,917	$2,028	$1,931	$1,875	$2,007
% of Debt	0.6%	12.3%	13.4%	14.4%	15.2%	14.5%	14.0%	15.0%

Liquidity

Unrestricted Cash	$774.0
Undrawn Revolver	1,894.0
Total Liquidity	$2,668.0
(-) Debt due through 2028	(600.0)
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months	1,931.0
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow	$3,999.0

Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.

The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$5,788	$8,773	$10,235	$11,174	$12,039	$12,690	$12,847	$13,002
Y/Y Growth		51.6%	16.7%	9.2%	7.7%		1.2%	1.2%
Implied Costs	(4,397)	(6,355)	(7,656)	(8,482)	(8,999)	(9,245)	(9,223)	(9,245)
Adj. EBITDA	$1,391	$2,418	$2,579	$2,692	$3,040	$3,445	$3,624	$3,756
Margin	24.0%	27.6%	25.2%	24.1%	25.3%	27.1%	28.2%	28.9%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$1,391	$2,418	$2,579	$2,692	$3,040	$3,445	$3,624	$3,756
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(359)	(385)	(492)	(562)	(648)	(656)	(741)	(741)
(-) Cash Taxes	(181)	(389)	(478)	(492)	(523)	(924)	(924)	(924)
(-) Capex	(35)	(39)	(151)	(96)	(101)	(83)	(84)	(85)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	(742)	37	337	375	260	149	--	--
Memo: FCF	$74	$1,642	$1,795	$1,917	$2,028	$1,931	$1,875	$2,007
% of Debt	0.6%	12.3%	13.4%	14.4%	15.2%	14.5%	14.0%	15.0%

Key Drivers

Driver	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E	Sensitivity	Next 12m impact ($mm)
System-wide comparable RevPAR $ per available room night	110.89	105.97	125.02	124.70	114.49	109.68	129.40	129.06	118.50	112.97	133.28	132.93	$5.0mm on revenue	80
Rooms in system (net unit growth) thousand rooms at period end	1,351.4	1,362.3	1,384.8	1,408.4	1,439.2	1,453.6	1,476.9	1,502.0	1,532.0	1,547.3	1,572.1	1,598.8	$0.2mm on revenue	77
Incentive management fees $ millions per quarter	101	76	69	71	101	76	69	71	101	76	69	71	$1.0mm on revenue	--
Ownership segment comparable RevPAR $ per available room night	195.61	138.96	176.94	195.25	195.61	138.96	176.94	195.25	195.61	138.96	176.94	195.25	$1.7mm on revenue	--
General and administrative expense $ millions per quarter	95	103	114	110	73	103	114	110	95	103	114	110	$1.0mm on SG&A	(22)

Hilton is an asset-light fee business, so the next year turns on two things: comparable RevPAR, which management guides up 3.0% to 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026 after a 5.8% third quarter helped by the World Cup, and net unit growth of 6% to 7% from a 543,100 room pipeline. Fees from the co-branded credit card and timeshare licenses add steady growth that does not depend on hotel demand. The watch items are softer Middle East and Asia Pacific results, which hit incentive fees, and about $13.5 billion of debt, which is serviced comfortably by roughly $4.07 billion of 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance but leaves the $600 million April 2027 notes to refinance.

Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case

$ in millions	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E
Revenue	$3,087	$2,937	$3,341	$3,325	$3,123	$2,975	$3,382	$3,367	$3,163	$3,011	$3,422	$3,406
Y/Y Growth	10.9%	9.0%	6.5%	6.6%	1.2%	1.3%	1.2%	1.2%	1.3%	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%
Adj. EBITDA	$684	$773	$968	$1,020	$760	$815	$999	$1,050	$777	$851	$1,038	$1,090
Margin	22.2%	26.3%	29.0%	30.7%	24.3%	27.4%	29.5%	31.2%	24.6%	28.3%	30.3%	32.0%
Free Cash Flow	$173	$609	$460	$689	$323	$379	$560	$612	$341	$415	$600	$651
Cash, end of period	918	564	1,009	774	1,097	1,477	2,037	2,649	2,989	3,405	4,004	4,656
Total Debt, end of period	12,363	12,359	13,343	13,357	13,357	13,357	13,357	13,357	13,357	13,357	13,357	13,357
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	3.8x	3.7x	3.7x	3.7x	3.5x	3.3x	3.1x	3.0x	2.8x	2.7x	2.5x	2.3x

Revenue is built from one revenue line, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.

Earnings call: Q3 2026 · Oct 27, 2026

Slides Webcast and audio replay Transcript Investor relations site

Hilton beat its own Q3 targets on strong U.S. business and group travel, raised full-year RevPAR and earnings guidance, and kept leverage steady at 3.2x while returning about $3.5 billion to shareholders this year.

Takeaways

System-wide RevPAR rose 5.8% in Q3, ahead of plan. U.S. RevPAR was up 7%, helped by the World Cup, business transient and group. Middle East and Africa fell 5.6% and China fell 5.4%.
Adjusted EBITDA was $1,058 million, up 8.4% and above the top of guidance. Management and franchise fees grew 9.5%. Net income rose to $536 million from $421 million.
Drags this year from the Middle East conflict, Mexico, owned hotel renovations and weaker timeshare license fees total about $60 to $70 million. Management called these one-off, not structural.
Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA was 3.2x, flat with Q2. Total debt was about $13.5 billion at a 5.09% average rate, with $830 million of cash and $1,894 million undrawn on the revolver.
Net unit growth was 6.0% with a record 27,000 rooms opened. The pipeline hit about 543,000 rooms, nearly half under construction, supporting 6% to 7% growth for several years.
Q3 capital return was $879 million, mostly $845 million of buybacks. The full-year plan stays at about $3.5 billion, funded from fee-based free cash flow.

Debt and capital

Net debt was $12,623 million at September 30, 2026, or 3.2x trailing Adjusted EBITDA, in line with recent quarters.
No revolver borrowings were outstanding, with $1,894 million available after $106 million of letters of credit.
The next material maturity is $600 million of senior notes due April 2027. Nothing else material comes due until April 2029.
In Q2 the company issued $1.0 billion of 5.500% senior notes due 2031 and used part of the proceeds to repay $450 million of revolver borrowings. No new debt actions were disclosed for Q3.
Buybacks were $845 million in Q3 at about $320 per share. Year-to-date capital return through October was $2,902 million, and the quarterly dividend stays at $0.15 per share.
No ratings actions or new leverage target were discussed on the call. The listing is moving to Nasdaq.

Guidance

Full-year 2026 RevPAR raised to up 4.0% to 4.5%, from up 3.0% to 3.5% after Q2.
Full-year Adjusted EBITDA raised to $4,060 to $4,080 million, from $4,040 to $4,080 million. The beat flowed through only partly because of the Middle East and timeshare fees.
Full-year adjusted diluted EPS raised to $9.07 to $9.13, from $8.89 to $9.01. Guidance excludes future buybacks.
Q4 2026 guided to RevPAR up 3.0% to 3.5% and Adjusted EBITDA of $1,047 to $1,067 million, held back by calendar shifts.
Net unit growth held at 6% to 7%, landing near the midpoint. Contract acquisition costs and capex now $350 to $375 million, up from about $300 million, for renovations, headquarters work and key money.
Early 2027 view: global RevPAR up about 3% to 4% and unit growth of 6% to 7%, with over 80% of next year's openings already identified.

What analysts asked

The 2027 demand outlook by segment, which management framed as RevPAR up 3% to 4%.
Why the Q3 beat only partly flowed into the full-year raise, and the size of one-off drags from the Middle East, Mexico, renovations and timeshare fees.
Development confidence despite higher interest rates, including construction starts, conversions and key money use.
How much of 2027 unit growth is already under construction versus reliant on conversions.
AI booking agents and whether they can shift share away from online travel agencies.
Owner and franchisee relations, fee relief under the RISE program and a second round planned for early 2027.
Luxury and lifestyle growth, U.S. group bookings for 2027, the new technology chief, and owner sentiment in Europe.

Tone: Confident and upbeat, with management stressing a strong U.S. business travel cycle and treating this year's regional and timeshare drags as temporary.

Q2 2026Slides · Webcast
Q1 2026Slides · Webcast
Q4 2025Slides · Webcast

Summary written with AI from Full call transcript posted by Hilton on its IR site, plus the Q3 2026 earnings press release.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.

Last quarter: Third quarter 2026

Hilton grew third quarter Adjusted EBITDA 8% to $1,058mm on 5.8% RevPAR growth and raised full year RevPAR guidance.

Results

Hilton Domestic Operating Co does not file its own earnings release; these figures are from the parent, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., in its 8-K filed October 27, 2026.
Total revenues were $3,325mm, up from $3,120mm a year earlier; excluding cost reimbursement revenues they were $1,358mm versus $1,283mm.
Adjusted EBITDA was $1,058mm versus $976mm, and the Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 77.0% from 75.2%.
Net income was $536mm versus $421mm, and diluted EPS adjusted for special items was $2.45 versus $2.11.
System-wide comparable RevPAR rose 5.8% on a currency neutral basis, and net unit growth was 6.0% from a year earlier.

Why

Management and franchise fee revenues rose 9.5%, led by franchise and licensing fees of $815mm versus $739mm.
U.S. RevPAR rose 7.0% and Europe 6.5%, while Middle East and Africa fell 5.6% and Asia Pacific fell 0.5%.
The company said the quarter benefited from the World Cup and favorable calendar and holiday shifts.
The system added 23,000 net rooms in the quarter, and the pipeline reached 543,100 rooms, up 5% from a year earlier.

Balance sheet and guidance

Debt was $13.5bn at September 30, 2026 at a 5.09% weighted average rate, up from $12.5bn at year end 2025; net debt was $12,623mm.
Reported net debt to Adjusted EBITDA was 3.2x; cash was $830mm including $56mm restricted, and the undrawn revolver had $1,894mm available.
No material debt matures until April 2029 other than $600mm of senior notes due April 2027; the company returned $879mm to shareholders in the quarter.
Full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $4,060mm to $4,080mm, with the low end raised from $4,040mm and the high end held at $4,080mm.
Full year 2026 RevPAR growth of 4.0% to 4.5%, raised from 3.0% to 3.5%; net income of $1,909mm to $1,923mm.
Contract acquisition costs and capital expenditures, net of third party reimbursement, of $350mm to $375mm, up from about $300mm.
Fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $1,047mm to $1,067mm and full year capital return of about $3.5bn.

What to watch

Middle East results and timeshare license fees, which the company cited for lower expectations inside its full year EBITDA range.
Refinancing of the $600mm senior notes due April 2027 and the path of debt, which rose about $1.0bn this year as interest expense climbed to $184mm from $159mm.
Shareholder returns of about $3.5bn for the year against reported net leverage of 3.2x, and higher contract acquisition spending of $78mm in the quarter.

From the company's press release filed Oct 27, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.

Filings

Earnings releases 8

Oct 27, 20268-K for Oct 27, 2026: Results · Press release
Jul 28, 20268-K for Jul 28, 2026: Results · Press release
Apr 28, 20268-K for Apr 28, 2026: Results · Press release
Feb 11, 20268-K for Feb 11, 2026: Results · Press release
Oct 22, 20258-K for Oct 22, 2025: Results · Press release
Jul 23, 20258-K for Jul 23, 2025: Results · Press release
Apr 29, 20258-K for Apr 29, 2025: Results · Press release
Feb 6, 20258-K for Feb 6, 2025: Results · Press release

Annual reports (10-K) 5

Quarterly reports (10-Q) 12

Current reports (8-K) 20

Oct 20, 20268-K for Oct 20, 2026: Listing notice; Regulation FD
May 18, 20268-K for May 14, 2026: Director or officer change; Shareholder vote
May 11, 20268-K for May 7, 2026: Material agreement; New debt; Other event
May 5, 20268-K for May 5, 2026: Director or officer change
Mar 18, 20268-K for Mar 18, 2026: Material agreement
Dec 11, 20258-K for Dec 10, 2025: Material agreement; Agreement terminated; New debt
Dec 2, 20258-K for Dec 1, 2025: Other event
Jul 7, 20258-K for Jul 1, 2025: Material agreement; New debt; Other event
May 16, 20258-K for May 14, 2025: Bylaw change; Shareholder vote
Mar 4, 20258-K for Feb 27, 2025: Director or officer change
Dec 13, 20248-K for Dec 10, 2024: Director or officer change
Sep 9, 20248-K for Sep 5, 2024: Material agreement; New debt; Other event
Jun 14, 20248-K for Jun 14, 2024: Material agreement
May 17, 20248-K for May 15, 2024: Shareholder vote
Mar 27, 20248-K for Mar 26, 2024: Material agreement; New debt
Mar 25, 20248-K for Mar 22, 2024: Other event
Mar 19, 20248-K for Mar 19, 2024: Regulation FD
Dec 5, 20238-K for Nov 30, 2023: Director or officer change
Nov 8, 20238-K for Nov 8, 2023: Material agreement
Sep 18, 20238-K for Sep 15, 2023: Director or officer change

Proxy statements 3

Other filings 8

Nov 4, 202625
Oct 3, 2019424B3
Sep 20, 2019S-4
Apr 19, 2019424B3
Mar 29, 2019S-4
Apr 12, 2018424B7
Apr 9, 2018424B5
Oct 2, 2017424B2

Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.

Coming up

Feb 10, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
Apr 1, 2027Maturity. 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027: $600mm outstanding comes due.

Recent 8-K filings

Oct 27, 2026Reported results
Oct 20, 2026Listing notice; Regulation FD disclosure
Jul 28, 2026Reported results