NCL Corp (NCLCO) | Credit Investor

Next 12 Months: Starting Case

$ in millions	Last 12 Months	Next Quarter (4Q26E)	vs. 4Q25A	Next 12 Months	Change
Revenue	$10,163	$2,194	(2.2%)	$10,350	1.8%
Adj. EBITDA	$2,772	$361	(40.2%)	$2,647	(4.5%)
Free Cash Flow	($561)	($275)	(1348.2%)	($317)	43.5%
Net Debt, end of period	$668	$943		$985	47.4%
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	0.2x	0.4x		0.4x	+0.2x
Total Liquidity, end of period	$1,351	$1,076		$1,034	(23.5%)

The credit over the next year

NCL Corporation is in a pricing reset: Net Yield fell 6.5% in Q3 2026 and is guided down about 6.5% again in Q4, so 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of about $2.55 billion sits on 26.2 million Capacity Days with Net Leverage of 5.5x. The credit over the next year turns on whether the guided 1% to 2% Net Yield recovery in 2027 shows up as Norwegian Aura and Oceania Sonata add capacity, whether unit costs stay flat under the savings program, and how much of a fuel price near $800 to $860 a ton, net of hedges, gets through with only 42% of 2027 hedged. Each 1% of Net Yield is about $76 million of annual Adjusted EBITDA, so yield is the swing factor for deleveraging.

Leverage rises from 0.2x to 0.4x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
The company burns $317mm of cash over the next year on the starting case, so liquidity has to fund it.
Net debt grows from $668mm to $985mm.
Liquidity a year out is $1.03bn, against $1.35bn today.
Company guidance for fiscal 2026: adjusted EBITDA of $2.55bn on its own definition.

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure

Cap Structure	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	Yield	Lev. Through	View
Unrestricted Cash	$250.7
Debt, current portion	918.8	100.0%	N/a	0.3x	Neutral
Debt, long-term	0.0	100.0%	N/a	0.3x	Neutral
Total Debt	$918.8			0.3x
Net Debt	$668.1			0.2x

Last Twelve Months

Revenue	$10,163
Implied Costs	(7,391)
Adj. EBITDA	$2,772
(-) Interest Expense	(942)
(-) Capex	(2,730)
Memo: FCF	($561)
Total Liquidity	$1,350.7

Next 12 months, starting case▶ Revenue $10.16bn → $10.35bn▼ Adj. EBITDA $2.77bn → $2.65bn▲ Free cash flow -$561mm → -$317mm▲ Net leverage 0.2x → 0.4x▼ Liquidity $1.35bn → $1.03bn

NCL Corp

			9/30/26				Face Value / Adj. EBITDA
Cap Structure	Coupon	Maturity	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	YTM	View	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Unrestricted Cash			$250.7
Undrawn Revolver ($2,486mm facility)			1,100.0
Total Liquidity			$1,350.7

Debt, current portion	N/a	N/a	918.8	100.0%	N/a	Neutral
Debt, long-term	N/a	N/a	0.0	100.0%	N/a	Neutral
Total Debt			$918.8				NA	1.2x	0.3x	0.3x	0.3x	0.3x	0.3x	0.3x
Net Debt			$668.1				NA	0.9x	0.2x	0.3x	0.2x	0.2x	0.4x	0.5x
				Adj. EBITDA			($1,581)	$758	$3,333	$2,640	$2,900	$2,772	$2,647	$2,762

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$648	$4,844	$8,550	$9,480	$9,828	$10,163	$10,350	$11,029
Y/Y Growth		647.5%	76.5%	10.9%	3.7%		1.8%	6.6%
(-) Cost of Revenue	(1,608)	(4,267)	(5,469)	(5,689)	(5,639)	(5,956)	(6,205)	(6,590)
Gross Profit	($960)	$577	$3,081	$3,791	$4,188	$4,207	$4,146	$4,439
Gross Margin	(148.1%)	11.9%	36.0%	40.0%	42.6%	41.4%	40.1%	40.3%
(-) SG&A	(890)	(1,378)	(1,341)	(1,434)	(1,548)	(1,626)	(1,662)	(1,765)
(+/-) Other Operating Costs, net of D&A	145	154	183	191	171	79	72	(3)
EBITDA	($1,705)	($647)	$1,924	$2,548	$2,812	$2,660	$2,556	$2,671
(+) Add-backs: stock comp, restructuring, impairments	124	1,404	1,410	92	88	112	91	91
Adj. EBITDA	($1,581)	$758	$3,333	$2,640	$2,900	$2,772	$2,647	$2,762
Margin	(243.9%)	15.6%	39.0%	27.8%	29.5%	27.3%	25.6%	25.0%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	--	(20)	--	--
Cash EBITDA	($1,581)	$758	$3,333	$2,640	$2,900	$2,751	$2,647	$2,762
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(2,100)	(751)	(823)	(773)	(952)	(942)	(184)	(184)
(-) Capex	(753)	(1,784)	(2,750)	(1,211)	(3,260)	(2,730)	(2,780)	(2,962)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	1,216	193	(510)	185	129	360	--	--
Memo: FCF	($3,218)	($1,584)	($749)	$841	($1,182)	($561)	($317)	($384)
% of Debt	(350.2%)	(172.4%)	(81.5%)	91.5%	(128.7%)	(61.0%)	(34.5%)	(41.7%)

Liquidity

Unrestricted Cash	$250.7
Undrawn Revolver	1,100.0
Total Liquidity	$1,350.7
(-) Debt due through 2028	-0.0
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months	(560.7)
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow	$790.0

The latest filing does not itemise tranches in a form that ties to the balance sheet, so debt is shown as reported there.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.

The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$648	$4,844	$8,550	$9,480	$9,828	$10,163	$10,350	$11,029
Y/Y Growth		647.5%	76.5%	10.9%	3.7%		1.8%	6.6%
(-) Cost of Revenue	(1,608)	(4,267)	(5,469)	(5,689)	(5,639)	(5,956)	(6,205)	(6,590)
Gross Profit	($960)	$577	$3,081	$3,791	$4,188	$4,207	$4,146	$4,439
Gross Margin	(148.1%)	11.9%	36.0%	40.0%	42.6%	41.4%	40.1%	40.3%
(-) SG&A	(890)	(1,378)	(1,341)	(1,434)	(1,548)	(1,626)	(1,662)	(1,765)
(+/-) Other Operating Costs, net of D&A	145	154	183	191	171	79	72	(3)
EBITDA	($1,705)	($647)	$1,924	$2,548	$2,812	$2,660	$2,556	$2,671
(+) Add-backs: stock comp, restructuring, impairments	124	1,404	1,410	92	88	112	91	91
Adj. EBITDA	($1,581)	$758	$3,333	$2,640	$2,900	$2,772	$2,647	$2,762
Margin	(243.9%)	15.6%	39.0%	27.8%	29.5%	27.3%	25.6%	25.0%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	--	(20)	--	--
Cash EBITDA	($1,581)	$758	$3,333	$2,640	$2,900	$2,751	$2,647	$2,762
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(2,100)	(751)	(823)	(773)	(952)	(942)	(184)	(184)
(-) Capex	(753)	(1,784)	(2,750)	(1,211)	(3,260)	(2,730)	(2,780)	(2,962)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	1,216	193	(510)	185	129	360	--	--
Memo: FCF	($3,218)	($1,584)	($749)	$841	($1,182)	($561)	($317)	($384)
% of Debt	(350.2%)	(172.4%)	(81.5%)	91.5%	(128.7%)	(61.0%)	(34.5%)	(41.7%)

Key Drivers

Driver	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E	Sensitivity	Next 12m impact ($mm)
Net Yield $ per Capacity Day (as reported)	275.80	278.70	298.10	319.65	257.87	278.70	299.59	327.64	265.61	278.70	299.59	327.64	$6.4mm on revenue	(54)
Capacity Days millions of Capacity Days per quarter	6.263	6.393	6.590	6.766	6.430	6.480	6.590	7.130	6.910	6.890	7.000	7.440	$390.7mm on revenue	241
Occupancy % (Passenger Cruise Days over Capacity Days)	101.8	103.8	102.4	106.5	101.8	103.8	102.4	106.5	101.8	103.8	102.4	106.5	$24.2mm on revenue	--
Adjusted Net Cruise Cost excluding Fuel per Capacity Day $ per Capacity Day (as reported)	159.02	168.92	163.82	152.28	161.41	168.92	163.82	152.28	161.41	168.92	163.82	152.28	$6.4mm on cost of revenue	15
Fuel price per metric ton, net of hedges $ per metric ton	662	651	888	819	803	860	860	860	860	860	860	860	$0.3mm on cost of revenue	94

NCL Corporation is in a pricing reset: Net Yield fell 6.5% in Q3 2026 and is guided down about 6.5% again in Q4, so 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of about $2.55 billion sits on 26.2 million Capacity Days with Net Leverage of 5.5x. The credit over the next year turns on whether the guided 1% to 2% Net Yield recovery in 2027 shows up as Norwegian Aura and Oceania Sonata add capacity, whether unit costs stay flat under the savings program, and how much of a fuel price near $800 to $860 a ton, net of hedges, gets through with only 42% of 2027 hedged. Each 1% of Net Yield is about $76 million of annual Adjusted EBITDA, so yield is the swing factor for deleveraging.

Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case

$ in millions	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E
Revenue	$2,244	$2,331	$2,641	$2,947	$2,194	$2,365	$2,650	$3,140	$2,432	$2,525	$2,810	$3,262
Y/Y Growth	6.4%	9.6%	4.9%	0.3%	(2.2%)	1.5%	0.4%	6.6%	10.8%	6.8%	6.0%	3.9%
Adj. EBITDA	$604	$567	$665	$936	$361	$528	$724	$1,034	$411	$545	$747	$1,060
Margin	26.9%	24.3%	25.2%	31.8%	16.4%	22.3%	27.3%	32.9%	16.9%	21.6%	26.6%	32.5%
Free Cash Flow	$22	($625)	$147	($105)	($275)	($153)	($34)	$144	($288)	($179)	($54)	$138
Cash, end of period	204	179	212	251	(24)	(177)	(211)	(66)	(354)	(533)	(587)	(450)
Total Debt, end of period	14,583	959	925	919	919	919	919	919	919	919	919	919
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	5.1x	0.3x	0.2x	0.2x	0.4x	0.4x	0.4x	0.4x	0.5x	0.5x	0.6x	0.5x

Revenue is built from Passenger, Onboard and Other, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.

Earnings call: Q3 2026 · Oct 29, 2026

Slides Webcast and audio replay Investor relations site

NCLH beat its Q3 2026 guidance and raised full-year EBITDA to about $2.55 billion, but yields and EBITDA are still below last year and net leverage rose to 5.5x.

Takeaways

Revenue was flat at $2.95 billion. Net Yield fell 6.7% in constant currency, about 220 basis points better than guided. Close-in demand and onboard spend drove the beat.
Adjusted EBITDA was $937 million, down 8% from $1,019 million a year ago but $63 million above guidance. Unit costs excluding fuel fell 2.3%, helping margins.
Nine-month operating cash flow was $1.71 billion against $2.29 billion of capex. Free cash flow is still negative because of the newbuild program, which is mostly funded with export credit loans.
Total debt was $15.1 billion and net debt $14.8 billion. Net leverage rose to 5.5x from 5.3x at June. Management calls cutting leverage a top priority.
In October NCLC issued $950 million of 8.750% notes due 2031. It used the money to redeem the 6.125% 2028 notes and pay down the revolver. It also upsized the revolver to $2.8 billion. Pro forma liquidity is about $2.1 billion.
Asset sales continue. Oceania Sirena was sold and chartered back to spring 2028. Oceania Insignia is under contract for sale, with handover in September 2027. Nine-month ship sale proceeds were $105 million.

Debt and capital

September 30, 2026 debt: $13.95 billion long term plus $1.13 billion current, against $257 million of cash.
New $950 million 8.750% senior unsecured notes due October 2031. They are callable from October 2028, with a 101% change of control put.
The proceeds redeemed all of NCL Finance's 6.125% notes due 2028 at make-whole, repaid $376 million of revolver borrowings and prepaid $42 million of export credit loans.
The revolver grew to $2.80 billion from $2.49 billion and matures January 2030. Springing maturities apply if certain notes are not refinanced in time. Collateral ships were swapped: Pride of America and Norwegian Epic in, Norwegian Dawn and Norwegian Spirit out.
On October 27 NCLC signed SACE-backed loans of up to about $2.5 billion each for two ships due in 2034 and 2036. They price at SOFR plus 0.90% over 12 years.
The company says there are no significant maturities until 2029. Exchangeable notes due 2030 total about $1.76 billion of principal. Newbuild capex net of export credit is about $1.1 billion in 2027 and $0.5 billion in 2028.
No buybacks or rating actions were mentioned.

Guidance

Full-year 2026 raised. Adjusted EBITDA is now about $2.55 billion, up from about $2.5 billion. Adjusted EPS is about $1.70, up from about $1.50.
Full-year 2026 Net Yield is now down about 4.4% in constant currency, better than the prior view of down about 5%. Unit costs excluding fuel are now down about 0.4%, versus about 0.25% before.
Q4 2026 Net Yield held at down about 6.5%. Q4 Adjusted EBITDA is guided to about $414 million, at a 25.0% margin. A late Seven Seas Prestige delivery and cancelled Suez voyages hurt mix.
First look at 2027: Net Yield growth of 1% to 2%, weighted to the second half. The 12-month booked position is still below the company's ideal range.
On September 30 the company said 2027 net interest expense should be $860 to $880 million after the new notes. It also flagged about $100 million of added run-rate savings, phasing in through 2028.

Tone: Cautiously upbeat about a turnaround, but realistic that yields are still falling this year and leverage is high.

Q2 2026Slides · Webcast
Q1 2026Slides · Webcast
Q4 2025Slides · Webcast

Summary written with AI from Press release, Form 8-K filings and the IR event page. The company does not publish a call transcript or prepared remarks on its IR site or with the SEC, so this is not built from the call itself.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.

Last quarter: Third quarter 2026

Parent NCLH beat third quarter guidance with $937mm Adjusted EBITDA and raised its 2026 outlook, while net leverage rose to 5.5x.

Results

NCL Corp files the earnings release of its parent, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH); all figures are consolidated NCLH results.
Revenue was $2,947mm, flat against $2,938mm a year earlier, as onboard revenue rose to $1,001mm and ticket revenue fell to $1,946mm.
Adjusted EBITDA was $937mm, down from $1,019mm a year earlier but $63mm above the company's $874mm guidance.
Net Yield fell 6.7% in constant currency, about 220 basis points better than the 8.9% decline guided.
GAAP net income was $491mm against $419mm, helped by interest expense falling to $171mm from $329mm, which included a $154mm debt extinguishment loss last year.

Why

The company cited stronger close-in demand and onboard spending than it expected, plus lower unit costs from cost control.
Adjusted net cruise cost excluding fuel per capacity day fell 2.3% in constant currency, against guidance of a 0.9% decline.
Pricing per day is still lower than last year: Net Yield was $320 against $342, and the company says its booked position for the next 12 months remains below its target range.
Fuel cost rose to $196mm from $176mm as the price per metric ton net of hedges rose to $819 from $744.

Balance sheet and guidance

Total debt was $15,087mm and net debt $14,830mm at September 30, 2026; net leverage was 5.5x on trailing Adjusted EBITDA of $2,699mm, up from 5.3x at June 30.
Cash was $257mm. Pro forma for the $950mm of 8.750% senior notes due 2031 issued October 15 and the revolver upsize to about $2.8bn, liquidity would have been about $2.1bn, including $1.8bn of revolver availability.
The company says it has no significant debt maturities until 2029. It sold Oceania Sirena (chartered back through spring 2028) and agreed to sell Oceania Insignia for delivery in September 2027.
Full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA raised to about $2.55bn from about $2.5bn in the July release (the March release had guided about $2.95bn, and May $2.48bn to $2.64bn).
Fourth quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guided to about $414mm, with Net Yield down about 6.5% in constant currency, unchanged from prior guidance.
Full year 2026 capex guided to about $2.9bn of gross newbuild-and-growth spending (about $1.6bn funded by export credit) plus about $540mm of other capex; gross newbuild capex of about $3.1bn is guided for 2027.
The company expects 2027 Net Yield growth of 1% to 2%, weighted to the second half.

What to watch

Whether net leverage starts to fall: it rose to 5.5x as trailing Adjusted EBITDA slipped, and the fourth quarter guide of $414mm is below the $564mm earned in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Bookings for 2027: the first half booked position is below last year, and the 1% to 2% Net Yield growth target depends on the second half improving.
Funding of about $1.2bn of fourth quarter capex (about $594mm export credit financed) and about $3.1bn of 2027 gross newbuild spending against $257mm of cash, a revolver that is the main liquidity source, and new debt priced at 8.750%.

From the company's press release filed Oct 29, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.

Filings

Earnings releases 8

Oct 29, 20268-K for Oct 29, 2026: Results
Jul 30, 20268-K for Jul 30, 2026: Results
May 4, 20268-K for May 4, 2026: Results
Mar 2, 20268-K for Mar 2, 2026: Results
Feb 12, 20268-K for Feb 12, 2026: Results; Director or officer change
Nov 4, 20258-K for Nov 4, 2025: Results
Jul 31, 20258-K for Jul 31, 2025: Results
Apr 30, 20258-K for Apr 30, 2025: Results

Annual reports (10-K) 5

Quarterly reports (10-Q) 12

Current reports (8-K) 20

Oct 30, 20268-K for Oct 27, 2026: Material agreement; New debt
Oct 29, 20268-K for Oct 27, 2026: Director or officer change
Oct 15, 20268-K for Oct 15, 2026: Material agreement; Agreement terminated; New debt; Other event
Sep 30, 20268-K for Sep 30, 2026: Regulation FD
May 29, 20268-K for May 29, 2026: Other event
Mar 27, 20268-K for Mar 26, 2026: Director or officer change
Mar 27, 20268-K for Mar 26, 2026: Director or officer change
Sep 18, 20258-K for Sep 17, 2025: Material agreement; Agreement terminated; New debt; Other event
Sep 11, 20258-K for Sep 11, 2025: Material agreement; New debt; Other event
Sep 8, 20258-K for Sep 8, 2025: Other event
Aug 20, 20258-K for Aug 20, 2025: Director or officer change; Regulation FD
Jul 29, 20258-K for Jul 29, 2025: Other event
Jul 21, 20258-K for Jul 17, 2025: Material agreement; New debt
Jul 10, 20258-K for Jul 10, 2025: Other event
Jun 27, 20258-K for Jun 26, 2025: Material agreement; New debt; Other event
May 8, 20258-K for May 7, 2025: Director or officer change
Apr 7, 20258-K for Apr 7, 2025: Material agreement; New debt
Apr 3, 20258-K for Apr 2, 2025: Other event
Apr 2, 20258-K for Apr 1, 2025: Other event
Feb 7, 20258-K for Feb 5, 2025: Director or officer change

Other filings 8

Oct 9, 2013424B3
Sep 19, 2013S-4
Mar 5, 201310-K/A for Dec 31, 2012
Apr 16, 2012424B3
Oct 13, 2011424B3
Jun 9, 2011S-1/A
Feb 11, 2011S-1/A
Jan 31, 2011S-1/A

Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.

Rating actions

Nov 4, 2025S&P: Senior unsecured issue rating shown as B+ (filing three months earlier showed B); secured note ratings no longer listed. The company's filings stop listing secured note ratings once the secured notes were no longer outstanding, and the unsecured rating moved back to B+ as they ceased to rank ahead of it. · source
Nov 4, 2025Moody's: Senior secured rating (Ba3) no longer listed; issuer B1 and senior unsecured B3 unchanged. Secured notes appear to have been retired, so only the issuer and unsecured ratings remain in the filing. · source
Feb 27, 2025Moody's: Upgraded to B1 from B2 (issuer); senior secured to Ba3 from B1; senior unsecured to B3 from Caa1. Upgrade first appears in the 2024 10-K filed this date (prior 10-Q of 2024-11-07 showed B2); exact action date not confirmed, likely reflecting steady deleveraging and stronger cruise demand. · source

Coming up

Mar 1, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.

Recent 8-K filings

Oct 30, 2026Entered into a material agreement; Took on new debt or an obligation
Oct 29, 2026Director or officer change
Oct 29, 2026Reported results
Oct 15, 2026Entered into a material agreement; Terminated a material agreement; Took on new debt or an obligation; Other event
Sep 30, 2026Regulation FD disclosure
Jul 30, 2026Reported results