NRG is now a retailer with eight million customers sitting on about 25 GW of owned generation after the LS Power deal, so next year's cash flow turns on PJM capacity prices that are already locked at the auction cap through May 2029, power prices in PJM and ERCOT, and Texas weather driving home electricity volumes and retail margins. The company guides 2027 Adjusted EBITDA of $5.5bn to $6.0bn before the $4bn sale of 4.9 GW of New York, New England and Texas gas plants, which is meant to fund $3bn of 2027 debt reduction. Natural gas matters less for earnings than for liquidity: a $0.50 per MMBtu drop would add about $1.4bn of margin collateral.
Leverage falls from 4.9x to 4.5x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
Free cash flow of $1.45bn is projected over the next year, with no itemised debt due in that time.
Net debt shrinks from $22.78bn to $21.33bn.
Liquidity a year out is $4.97bn, against $3.52bn today.
Company guidance for fiscal 2026: adjusted EBITDA of $5.33bn to $5.83bn on its own definition, free cash flow of $2.80bn to $3.30bn.
Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.
Capital Structure
Cap Structure
Amt Out.
Mkt Price
Yield
Lev. Through
View
Unrestricted Cash
$148.0
2.450% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2027 (sustainability-linked)
900.0
100.0%
2.45%
0.2x
Bullish
Revolving Credit Facility ($4.6bn, due 2029)
1,016.0
100.0%
N/a
0.4x
Bullish
4.450% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2029
500.0
100.0%
4.45%
0.5x
Bullish
4.734% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2030
625.0
100.0%
4.73%
0.7x
Bullish
Term Loan B due 2031
2,281.0
100.0%
N/a
1.1x
Bullish
Lightning Term Loan due 2031 (non-recourse)
1,715.0
100.0%
N/a
1.5x
Bullish
4.955% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2031
500.0
98.9%*
5.24%
1.6x
Bullish
Term Loan B due 2033 (2026-1 New Term Loans)
896.0
100.0%
N/a
1.8x
Bullish
7.000% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2033
740.0
100.0%
7.00%
2.0x
Bullish
5.407% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2035
625.0
100.0%
5.41%
2.1x
Bullish
Cedar Bayou 5 TEF loan due 2045
381.0
100.0%
3.00%
2.2x
Bullish
T.H. Wharton TEF loan due 2045
216.0
100.0%
3.00%
2.2x
Bullish
Greens Bayou 6 TEF loan due 2045
204.0
100.0%
3.00%
2.3x
Bullish
Tax-exempt bonds (various, 2038 to 2045)
466.0
100.0%
N/a
2.4x
Bullish
Finance leases
45.0
100.0%
N/a
2.4x
Bullish
5.750% Senior Notes due 2028
821.0
100.1%*
5.55%
2.6x
Bullish
5.750% Senior Notes due 2029
798.0
99.8%*
5.81%
2.7x
Bullish
5.250% Senior Notes due 2029
733.0
99.3%*
5.54%
2.9x
Bullish
3.375% Senior Notes due 2029
500.0
95.3%*
5.43%
3.0x
Bullish
3.625% Senior Notes due 2031
1,030.0
92.1%*
5.63%
3.2x
Bullish
3.875% Senior Notes due 2032 (sustainability-linked)
2.450% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2027 (sustainability-linked)
2.45%
12/2/2027
900.0
100.0%
2.45%
10/2/2027 @ 100
2.45%
Bullish
Revolving Credit Facility ($4.6bn, due 2029)
S + 172
10/30/2029
1,016.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bullish
4.450% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2029
4.45%
6/15/2029
500.0
100.0%
4.45%
3/15/2029 @ 100
4.45%
Bullish
4.734% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2030
4.734%
10/15/2030
625.0
100.0%
4.73%
9/15/2030 @ 100
4.73%
Bullish
Term Loan B due 2031
S + 175
4/16/2031
2,281.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bullish
Lightning Term Loan due 2031 (non-recourse)
S + 175
8/16/2031
1,715.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bullish
4.955% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2031
4.955%
4/30/2031
500.0
98.9%*
5.24%
3/30/2031 @ 100
5.24%
Bullish
Term Loan B due 2033 (2026-1 New Term Loans)
S + 175
4/28/2033
896.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bullish
7.000% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2033
7.00%
3/15/2033
740.0
100.0%
7.00%
12/15/2032 @ 100
7.00%
Bullish
5.407% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2035
5.407%
10/15/2035
625.0
100.0%
5.41%
7/15/2035 @ 100
5.41%
Bullish
Cedar Bayou 5 TEF loan due 2045
3.00%
9/26/2045
381.0
100.0%
3.00%
N/a
N/a
Bullish
T.H. Wharton TEF loan due 2045
3.00%
7/31/2045
216.0
100.0%
3.00%
N/a
N/a
Bullish
Greens Bayou 6 TEF loan due 2045
3.00%
11/20/2045
204.0
100.0%
3.00%
N/a
N/a
Bullish
Tax-exempt bonds (various, 2038 to 2045)
N/a
N/a
466.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bullish
Finance leases
N/a
N/a
45.0
100.0%
N/a
N/a
N/a
Bullish
Total Secured Debt
$11,110.0
2.7x
3.8x
6.2x
2.8x
3.3x
2.4x
2.3x
2.3x
Net Secured Debt
$10,962.0
2.6x
3.8x
6.1x
2.8x
3.2x
2.4x
2.3x
2.3x
5.750% Senior Notes due 2028
5.75%
1/15/2028
821.0
100.1%*
5.68%
1/15/2026 @ 100
5.55%
Bullish
5.750% Senior Notes due 2029
5.75%
7/15/2029
798.0
99.8%*
5.81%
7/15/2026 @ 100
6.09%
Bullish
5.250% Senior Notes due 2029
5.25%
6/15/2029
733.0
99.3%*
5.54%
6/15/2027 @ 100
6.61%
Bullish
3.375% Senior Notes due 2029
3.375%
2/15/2029
500.0
95.3%*
5.43%
2/15/2026 @ 100
13.51%
Bullish
3.625% Senior Notes due 2031
3.625%
2/15/2031
1,030.0
92.1%*
5.63%
2/15/2027 @ 101.208
23.67%
Bullish
3.875% Senior Notes due 2032 (sustainability-linked)
3.875%
2/15/2032
480.0
91.5%*
5.70%
2/15/2027 @ 101.938
27.11%
Bullish
6.000% Senior Notes due 2033
6.00%
2/1/2033
925.0
99.5%*
6.10%
11/1/2027 @ 103
9.49%
Bullish
5.750% Senior Notes due 2034
5.75%
1/15/2034
1,250.0
97.3%*
6.20%
10/15/2028 @ 102.875
8.57%
Bullish
5.875% Senior Notes due 2034
5.875%
5/15/2034
1,050.0
97.4%*
6.31%
5/15/2029 @ 102.938
8.11%
Neutral
6.250% Senior Notes due 2034
6.25%
11/1/2034
950.0
99.6%*
6.31%
11/1/2029 @ 103.125
7.35%
Neutral
6.000% Senior Notes due 2036
6.00%
1/15/2036
2,400.0
97.2%*
6.40%
10/15/2030 @ 103
7.48%
Neutral
6.125% Senior Notes due 2036
6.125%
5/15/2036
1,050.0
98.0%*
6.41%
5/15/2031 @ 103.063
7.25%
Neutral
Other debt, discounts and issuance costs
N/a
N/a
(174.0)
Total Debt
$22,923.0
5.5x
7.9x
12.7x
5.8x
6.8x
4.9x
4.8x
4.8x
Net Debt
$22,775.0
5.4x
7.9x
12.6x
5.8x
6.7x
4.9x
4.5x
4.2x
Adj. EBITDA
$4,182
$2,896
$1,806
$3,944
$3,385
$4,657
$4,759
$4,759
Key Financials
2021A
2022A
2023A
2024A
2025A
LTM
3Q27E LTM
3Q28E LTM
Revenue
$26,989
$31,543
$28,823
$28,130
$30,713
$34,956
$35,058
$35,058
Y/Y Growth
16.9%
(8.6%)
(2.4%)
9.2%
0.3%
0.0%
Implied Costs
(22,807)
(28,647)
(27,017)
(24,186)
(27,328)
(30,299)
(30,299)
(30,299)
Adj. EBITDA
$4,182
$2,896
$1,806
$3,944
$3,385
$4,657
$4,759
$4,759
Margin
15.5%
9.2%
6.3%
14.0%
11.0%
13.3%
13.6%
13.6%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Cash EBITDA
$4,182
$2,896
$1,806
$3,944
$3,385
$4,657
$4,759
$4,759
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)
(433)
(383)
(548)
(626)
(572)
(1,140)
(1,499)
(1,499)
(-) Cash Taxes
(32)
(66)
(48)
(182)
(67)
(331)
(331)
(331)
(-) Capex
(269)
(367)
(598)
(472)
(1,147)
(1,479)
(1,483)
(1,483)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other
(3,224)
(2,087)
(1,431)
(830)
(833)
(1,018)
--
--
Memo: FCF
$224
($7)
($819)
$1,834
$766
$689
$1,446
$1,446
% of Debt
1.0%
(0.0%)
(3.6%)
8.0%
3.3%
3.0%
6.3%
6.3%
Liquidity
Unrestricted Cash
$148.0
Undrawn Revolver
3,372.0
Total Liquidity
$3,520.0
(-) Debt due through 2028
(1,721.0)
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months
689.0
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow
$2,488.0
Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.
The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.
Key Financials
2021A
2022A
2023A
2024A
2025A
LTM
3Q27E LTM
3Q28E LTM
Revenue
$26,989
$31,543
$28,823
$28,130
$30,713
$34,956
$35,058
$35,058
Y/Y Growth
16.9%
(8.6%)
(2.4%)
9.2%
0.3%
0.0%
Implied Costs
(22,807)
(28,647)
(27,017)
(24,186)
(27,328)
(30,299)
(30,299)
(30,299)
Adj. EBITDA
$4,182
$2,896
$1,806
$3,944
$3,385
$4,657
$4,759
$4,759
Margin
15.5%
9.2%
6.3%
14.0%
11.0%
13.3%
13.6%
13.6%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Cash EBITDA
$4,182
$2,896
$1,806
$3,944
$3,385
$4,657
$4,759
$4,759
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)
(433)
(383)
(548)
(626)
(572)
(1,140)
(1,499)
(1,499)
(-) Cash Taxes
(32)
(66)
(48)
(182)
(67)
(331)
(331)
(331)
(-) Capex
(269)
(367)
(598)
(472)
(1,147)
(1,479)
(1,483)
(1,483)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other
(3,224)
(2,087)
(1,431)
(830)
(833)
(1,018)
--
--
Memo: FCF
$224
($7)
($819)
$1,834
$766
$689
$1,446
$1,446
% of Debt
1.0%
(0.0%)
(3.6%)
8.0%
3.3%
3.0%
6.3%
6.3%
Key Drivers
Driver
4Q25A
1Q26A
2Q26A
3Q26A
4Q26E
1Q27E
2Q27E
3Q27E
4Q27E
1Q28E
2Q28E
3Q28E
Sensitivity
Next 12m impact ($mm)
PJM capacity auction price$ per MW-day
269.92
269.92
289.45
329.17
329.17
329.17
330.58
333.44
333.44
333.44
330.66
325.00
$0.6mm on revenue
102
PJM West Hub on-peak power price$ per MWh
65.97
103.38
65.46
99.44
65.97
103.38
65.46
99.44
65.97
103.38
65.46
99.44
$7.3mm on revenue
--
ERCOT Houston on-peak power price$ per MWh
35.81
29.03
37.01
39.68
35.81
29.03
37.01
39.68
35.81
29.03
37.01
39.68
$11.5mm on cost of revenue
--
Home electricity sales volumeGWh per quarter
12,127
12,228
13,511
18,819
12,127
12,228
13,511
18,819
12,127
12,228
13,511
18,819
$0.2mm on revenue
--
Henry Hub natural gas price$ per MMBtu
3.75
5.04
2.90
2.95
3.75
5.04
2.90
2.95
3.75
5.04
2.90
2.95
$82.0mm on cost of revenue
--
NRG is now a retailer with eight million customers sitting on about 25 GW of owned generation after the LS Power deal, so next year's cash flow turns on PJM capacity prices that are already locked at the auction cap through May 2029, power prices in PJM and ERCOT, and Texas weather driving home electricity volumes and retail margins. The company guides 2027 Adjusted EBITDA of $5.5bn to $6.0bn before the $4bn sale of 4.9 GW of New York, New England and Texas gas plants, which is meant to fund $3bn of 2027 debt reduction. Natural gas matters less for earnings than for liquidity: a $0.50 per MMBtu drop would add about $1.4bn of margin collateral.
Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case
$ in millions
4Q25A
1Q26A
2Q26A
3Q26A
4Q26E
1Q27E
2Q27E
3Q27E
4Q27E
1Q28E
2Q28E
3Q28E
Revenue
$7,753
$10,256
$7,481
$9,466
$7,790
$10,293
$7,507
$9,469
$7,792
$10,295
$7,507
$9,463
Y/Y Growth
13.7%
19.5%
11.0%
24.0%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.1%)
Adj. EBITDA
$724
$801
$1,501
$1,631
$827
$858
$1,495
$1,580
$829
$861
$1,495
$1,574
Margin
9.3%
7.8%
20.1%
17.2%
10.6%
8.3%
19.9%
16.7%
10.6%
8.4%
19.9%
16.6%
Free Cash Flow
($175)
($486)
$779
$571
$40
($35)
$720
$721
$42
($33)
$720
$716
Cash, end of period
4,708
178
162
148
188
153
872
1,594
1,636
1,603
2,323
3,039
Total Debt, end of period
16,443
23,154
23,256
22,923
22,923
22,923
22,923
22,923
22,923
22,923
22,923
22,923
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA
3.5x
8.5x
6.0x
4.9x
4.8x
4.7x
4.6x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.3x
4.2x
Revenue is built from one revenue line, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.
Strong third quarter on the acquired LS Power fleet; 2026 guidance held, 2027 guidance set, and a $4 billion gas plant sale funds buybacks and debt paydown.
Takeaways
Adjusted EBITDA rose to $2,013 million from $1,205 million a year earlier. The East segment drove most of the gain, helped by the acquired LS Power plants, CPower and higher capacity prices. Texas also improved on retail margins and hot weather.
Cash flow was strong. Operating cash flow was $1,097 million and free cash flow before growth was $1,242 million for the quarter, up from $828 million.
Liquidity fell to $6.0 billion at September 30 from $9.6 billion at year end, mainly because cash was used to fund the LS Power acquisition. Unrestricted cash was only about $0.1 billion, with $5.9 billion available on credit facilities.
NRG agreed to sell six gas plants (4.9 GW in New York, New England and Texas) to LS Power for $4 billion in cash, about 8.0x 2027 EBITDA. Closing is targeted for the second quarter of 2027 and needs HSR, FERC and New York PSC approval.
Sale proceeds go to $2 billion of extra debt reduction to hold current leverage, an extra $1 billion of buybacks, and $1 billion kept for contracted growth or more debt paydown.
The retained fleet will be about 20 GW, split evenly between ERCOT and PJM, with 1.1 GW of Texas Energy Fund projects due by 2028. The 1.2 GW data center power project remains on track.
Debt and capital
2027 base plan includes $1 billion of debt reduction and $1 billion of buybacks.
After the sale closes, NRG plans another $2 billion of debt reduction, bringing planned 2027 debt paydown to $3 billion, with the stated aim of keeping its current leverage profile.
Pro forma buybacks total $3 billion across 2026 and 2027, including an extra $1 billion starting before the end of Q4 2026, ahead of sale proceeds.
2026 plan returns $1.0 billion through buybacks ($977 million done through October 31) and about $407 million of dividends. The 2027 dividend rises 8% to $2.05 per share.
Buybacks are conditioned on keeping satisfactory credit metrics and ratings. Credit facility and collateral capacity was $9.6 billion at quarter end.
Guidance
2026 guidance held: Adjusted EBITDA $5,325 to $5,825 million, FCFbG $2,800 to $3,300 million, Adjusted EPS $7.90 to $9.90.
2027 guidance initiated: Adjusted EBITDA $5,500 to $6,000 million (midpoint $5,750 million), FCFbG $2,900 to $3,400 million, Adjusted EPS $8.05 to $10.05.
2027 guidance excludes the asset sale. Management will update 2027 guidance and capital allocation after the sale closes.
Tone: Confident and shareholder focused, with debt reduction framed as holding leverage steady rather than lowering it.
Summary written with AI from Press release and asset sale release (company IR site and SEC 8-K). NRG posts its own call transcripts on its IR site, but the Q3 2026 transcript was not yet posted when checked.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.
Last quarter: Third quarter 2026
Adjusted EBITDA rose 67% to $2.0bn on the LS Power assets, 2026 guidance held, and a $4bn sale of six gas plants was agreed.
Results
Revenue was $9,466mm, up from $7,635mm a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA was $2,013mm versus $1,205mm; nine-month Adjusted EBITDA was $4,310mm versus $3,240mm.
GAAP net income was $561mm versus $152mm, after a $155mm mark-to-market loss on economic hedges.
Free cash flow before growth investments (FCFbG) was $1,242mm versus $828mm; cash from operations was $1,097mm.
Maintenance and environmental capex was $78mm in the quarter ($75mm and $3mm); nine-month total capex was $1,181mm.
Why
East segment EBITDA rose $507mm to $614mm from the generation assets and CPower bought from LS Power in January 2026 and higher capacity prices.
Texas EBITDA rose $211mm to $1,018mm on higher retail margins and warm weather, which made up for a mild winter earlier in the year.
Vivint Smart Home EBITDA rose $39mm to $317mm on more new customers and higher monthly service margin.
Interest expense rose to $302mm from $187mm and D&A to $510mm from $360mm because of the acquired assets and acquisition debt.
Balance sheet and guidance
Total debt and finance leases was $22,923mm at September 30, 2026 ($1,079mm current), up from $16,443mm at year end 2025.
Unrestricted cash was $148mm and total liquidity was $6,027mm, down $3.6bn from year end after funding the LS Power deal.
Credit facility and collateral facility capacity was $9.6bn, of which $5,850mm was available.
2026 guidance held, unchanged since the February 2, 2026 update for the LS Power deal: Adjusted EBITDA $5,325mm to $5,825mm and FCFbG $2,800mm to $3,300mm.
New 2027 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA $5,500mm to $6,000mm and FCFbG $2,900mm to $3,400mm, before any effect of the asset sale.
2027 base plan has $1bn of debt reduction and $1bn of buybacks; after the sale closes, debt reduction is planned to rise to $3bn in total, with $1bn more in buybacks starting before year end 2026.
What to watch
Whether the $4bn sale of 4.9 GW to LS Power gets HSR, FERC and New York PSC approval for a second quarter 2027 close, and whether $2bn of the proceeds goes to debt as planned.
Whether buybacks of $1bn more begin before the sale cash arrives, while unrestricted cash is only $148mm and $1,079mm of debt is due within a year.
Fourth quarter results needed to land the 2026 range: nine-month Adjusted EBITDA of $4,310mm implies $1,015mm to $1,515mm in the fourth quarter, against $847mm a year earlier.
From the company's press release filed Nov 9, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.
Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.
Rating actions
May 12, 2025S&P: Affirmed BB issuer credit rating, outlook changed to Stable from Positive. Came the same day NRG agreed to buy about 13 GW of gas plants and CPower from LS Power, a large debt-funded deal; the 10-K does not state the reason, so the link to the deal is our reading. · source
Coming up
Feb 23, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
Dec 2, 2027Maturity. 2.450% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2027 (sustainability-linked): $900mm outstanding comes due.
Jan 15, 2028Maturity. 5.750% Senior Notes due 2028: $821mm outstanding comes due.