Companies / NRG Energy

NRG Energy NRG

Electric Services · Balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026 · $ in millions

Moody's Ba1 (stable)S&P BB (stable)Fitch BB+ (stable)

Next 12 Months: Starting Case
$ in millionsLast 12 MonthsNext Quarter (4Q26E)vs. 4Q25ANext 12 MonthsChange
Revenue$34,956$7,7900.5%$35,0580.3%
Adj. EBITDA$4,657$82714.2%$4,7592.2%
Free Cash Flow$689$40122.6%$1,446109.8%
Net Debt, end of period$22,775$22,735$21,329(6.3%)
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA4.9x4.8x4.5x-0.4x
Total Liquidity, end of period$3,520$3,560$4,96641.1%
The credit over the next year

NRG is now a retailer with eight million customers sitting on about 25 GW of owned generation after the LS Power deal, so next year's cash flow turns on PJM capacity prices that are already locked at the auction cap through May 2029, power prices in PJM and ERCOT, and Texas weather driving home electricity volumes and retail margins. The company guides 2027 Adjusted EBITDA of $5.5bn to $6.0bn before the $4bn sale of 4.9 GW of New York, New England and Texas gas plants, which is meant to fund $3bn of 2027 debt reduction. Natural gas matters less for earnings than for liquidity: a $0.50 per MMBtu drop would add about $1.4bn of margin collateral.

  • Leverage falls from 4.9x to 4.5x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
  • Free cash flow of $1.45bn is projected over the next year, with no itemised debt due in that time.
  • Net debt shrinks from $22.78bn to $21.33bn.
  • Liquidity a year out is $4.97bn, against $3.52bn today.
  • Company guidance for fiscal 2026: adjusted EBITDA of $5.33bn to $5.83bn on its own definition, free cash flow of $2.80bn to $3.30bn.

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure
Cap StructureAmt Out.Mkt PriceYieldLev. ThroughView
Unrestricted Cash$148.0
2.450% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2027 (sustainability-linked)900.0100.0%2.45%0.2xBullish
Revolving Credit Facility ($4.6bn, due 2029)1,016.0100.0%N/a0.4xBullish
4.450% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2029500.0100.0%4.45%0.5xBullish
4.734% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2030625.0100.0%4.73%0.7xBullish
Term Loan B due 20312,281.0100.0%N/a1.1xBullish
Lightning Term Loan due 2031 (non-recourse)1,715.0100.0%N/a1.5xBullish
4.955% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2031500.098.9%*5.24%1.6xBullish
Term Loan B due 2033 (2026-1 New Term Loans)896.0100.0%N/a1.8xBullish
7.000% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2033740.0100.0%7.00%2.0xBullish
5.407% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2035625.0100.0%5.41%2.1xBullish
Cedar Bayou 5 TEF loan due 2045381.0100.0%3.00%2.2xBullish
T.H. Wharton TEF loan due 2045216.0100.0%3.00%2.2xBullish
Greens Bayou 6 TEF loan due 2045204.0100.0%3.00%2.3xBullish
Tax-exempt bonds (various, 2038 to 2045)466.0100.0%N/a2.4xBullish
Finance leases45.0100.0%N/a2.4xBullish
5.750% Senior Notes due 2028821.0100.1%*5.55%2.6xBullish
5.750% Senior Notes due 2029798.099.8%*5.81%2.7xBullish
5.250% Senior Notes due 2029733.099.3%*5.54%2.9xBullish
3.375% Senior Notes due 2029500.095.3%*5.43%3.0xBullish
3.625% Senior Notes due 20311,030.092.1%*5.63%3.2xBullish
3.875% Senior Notes due 2032 (sustainability-linked)480.091.5%*5.70%3.3xBullish
6.000% Senior Notes due 2033925.099.5%*6.10%3.5xBullish
5.750% Senior Notes due 20341,250.097.3%*6.20%3.8xBullish
5.875% Senior Notes due 20341,050.097.4%*6.31%4.0xNeutral
6.250% Senior Notes due 2034950.099.6%*6.31%4.2xNeutral
6.000% Senior Notes due 20362,400.097.2%*6.40%4.7xNeutral
6.125% Senior Notes due 20361,050.098.0%*6.41%5.0xNeutral
Total Debt$22,923.04.9x
Net Debt$22,775.04.9x
Last Twelve Months
Revenue$34,956
Implied Costs(30,299)
Adj. EBITDA$4,657
(-) Interest Expense(1,140)
(-) Capex(1,479)
Memo: FCF$689
Total Liquidity$3,520.0