Nexstar Media (NXST) | Credit Investor

Next 12 Months: Starting Case

$ in millions	Last 12 Months	Next Quarter (4Q26E)	vs. 4Q25A	Next 12 Months	Change
Revenue	$6,811	$1,902	47.6%	$7,943	16.6%
Adj. EBITDA	$2,053	$520	36.8%	$2,267	10.4%
Free Cash Flow	$1,290	$366	169.4%	$1,644	27.4%
Net Debt, end of period	$10,963	$10,597		$9,319	(15.0%)
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	5.3x	4.8x		4.1x	-1.2x
Total Liquidity, end of period	$874	$1,240		$2,518	188.1%

The credit over the next year

Nexstar closed the TEGNA merger on March 19, 2026, lifting quarterly net revenue to $2.13 billion and Adjusted EBITDA to $756 million in Q3 2026, with $1.1 billion of distribution revenue as the stable base and record midterm political advertising of $317 million on top. Debt is $11.4 billion with total net leverage of 4.04x on a two-year average EBITDA covenant basis, so the next year turns on how much of the Q4 2026 political windfall goes to debt paydown before 2027, an off-year when political falls back to tens of millions a quarter. The other swing factors are distribution rate renewals against MVPD subscriber losses, soft core advertising, and whether the preliminary injunction (trial set for July 6, 2027) keeps blocking TEGNA cost synergies in direct operating and SG&A expense.

Leverage falls from 5.3x to 4.1x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
Free cash flow of $1.64bn is projected over the next year, enough to cover the $440mm of debt due in that time.
Net debt shrinks from $10.96bn to $9.32bn; maturing debt is assumed refinanced unless changed in the model.
Liquidity a year out is $2.52bn, against $874mm today.

Due inside a year: 7.25% Notes due 2027 (Belo) ($240mm); 7.75% Notes due 2027 (Belo) ($200mm).

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure

Cap Structure	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	Yield	Lev. Through	View
Unrestricted Cash	$446.0
7.25% Notes due 2027 (Belo)	240.0	100.0%	7.25%	0.1x	Bullish
7.75% Notes due 2027 (Belo)	200.0	100.0%	7.75%	0.2x	Bullish
Mission Term Loan B due 2028 (Term B-4)	285.0	100.0%	N/a	0.4x	Bullish
Term Loan A due 2030 (Term A-7)	1,786.0	100.0%	N/a	1.2x	Bullish
Nexstar Revolving Credit Facility due 2030	292.0	100.0%	N/a	1.4x	Bullish
Mission Revolving Credit Facility due 2030	62.0	100.0%	N/a	1.4x	Bullish
Term Loan B due 2032 (Term B-5)	1,287.0	100.0%	N/a	2.0x	Bullish
6.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2033	3,390.0	100.4%*	6.42%	3.7x	Bullish
Term Loan B due 2033 (Term B-7)	1,200.0	100.0%	N/a	4.3x	Bullish
4.750% Senior Notes due 2028	1,000.0	98.4%*	5.59%	4.7x	Neutral
5.000% Senior Notes due 2029 (TEGNA)	60.0	100.0%	5.00%	4.8x	Neutral
7.250% Senior Notes due 2034	1,725.0	101.3%*	7.02%	5.6x	Bullish
Total Debt	$11,409.0			5.6x
Net Debt	$10,963.0			5.3x

Last Twelve Months

Revenue	$6,811
Implied Costs	(4,758)
Adj. EBITDA	$2,053
(-) Interest Expense	(526)
(-) Capex	(167)
Memo: FCF	$1,290
Total Liquidity	$874.0

Next 12 months, starting case▲ Revenue $6.81bn → $7.94bn▲ Adj. EBITDA $2.05bn → $2.27bn▲ Free cash flow $1.29bn → $1.64bn▼ Net leverage 5.3x → 4.1x▲ Liquidity $874mm → $2.52bn

Nexstar Media

			9/30/26						Face Value / Adj. EBITDA
Cap Structure	Coupon	Maturity	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	YTM	Next Call	Yield to Call	View	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Unrestricted Cash			$446.0
Undrawn Revolver ($750mm facility)			428.0
Total Liquidity			$874.0

7.25% Notes due 2027 (Belo)	7.25%	9/15/2027	240.0	100.0%	7.25%	N/a	N/a	Bullish
7.75% Notes due 2027 (Belo)	7.75%	6/1/2027	200.0	100.0%	7.75%	N/a	N/a	Bullish
Mission Term Loan B due 2028 (Term B-4)	S + 250	6/3/2028	285.0	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
Term Loan A due 2030 (Term A-7)	S + 125 to 200	6/27/2030	1,786.0	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
Nexstar Revolving Credit Facility due 2030	S + 125 to 200	6/27/2030	292.0	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
Mission Revolving Credit Facility due 2030	S + grid matchin...	6/27/2030	62.0	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
Term Loan B due 2032 (Term B-5)	S + 250	6/27/2032	1,287.0	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
6.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2033	6.50%	9/15/2033	3,390.0	100.4%*	6.42%	3/15/2029 @ 103.25	7.52%	Bullish
Term Loan B due 2033 (Term B-7)	S + 275	3/19/2033	1,200.0	100.0%	N/a	9/19/2026 @ 100	N/a	Bullish
Total Secured Debt			$8,742.0						4.8x	4.1x	6.8x	4.7x	6.2x	4.3x	3.9x	3.9x
Net Secured Debt			$8,296.0						4.6x	3.9x	6.4x	4.4x	5.9x	4.0x	3.7x	3.7x

4.750% Senior Notes due 2028	4.75%	11/1/2028	1,000.0	98.4%*	5.59%	11/1/2025 @ 100	7.99%	Neutral
5.000% Senior Notes due 2029 (TEGNA)	5.00%	9/15/2029	60.0	100.0%	5.00%	9/15/2027 @ 100	5.00%	Neutral
7.250% Senior Notes due 2034	7.25%	4/15/2034	1,725.0	101.3%*	7.02%	4/15/2029 @ 103.625	8.01%	Bullish
Other debt, discounts and issuance costs	N/a	N/a	(118.0)
Total Debt			$11,409.0						6.3x	5.4x	8.8x	6.1x	8.1x	5.6x	5.0x	5.0x
Net Debt			$10,963.0						6.1x	5.2x	8.5x	5.9x	7.8x	5.3x	4.1x	3.4x
						Adj. EBITDA			$1,811	$2,127	$1,290	$1,866	$1,412	$2,053	$2,267	$2,267

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$4,648	$5,211	$4,933	$5,407	$4,949	$6,811	$7,943	$7,943
Y/Y Growth		12.1%	(5.3%)	9.6%	(8.5%)		16.6%	0.0%
Implied Costs	(2,837)	(3,084)	(3,643)	(3,541)	(3,537)	(4,758)	(5,676)	(5,676)
Adj. EBITDA	$1,811	$2,127	$1,290	$1,866	$1,412	$2,053	$2,267	$2,267
Margin	39.0%	40.8%	26.2%	34.5%	28.5%	30.1%	28.5%	28.5%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	(15)	(12)	--	--	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$1,811	$2,127	$1,275	$1,854	$1,412	$2,053	$2,267	$2,267
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(273)	(330)	(437)	(431)	(372)	(526)	(228)	(228)
(-) Cash Taxes	(320)	(370)	(169)	(254)	(208)	(100)	(200)	(200)
(-) Capex	(151)	(157)	(149)	(145)	(148)	(167)	(195)	(195)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	(3)	(24)	330	81	59	30	--	--
Memo: FCF	$1,064	$1,246	$850	$1,105	$743	$1,290	$1,644	$1,644
% of Debt	9.3%	10.9%	7.5%	9.7%	6.5%	11.3%	14.4%	14.4%

Liquidity

Unrestricted Cash	$446.0
Undrawn Revolver	428.0
Total Liquidity	$874.0
(-) Debt due through 2028	(1,725.0)
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months	1,290.0
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow	$439.0

Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.

The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$4,648	$5,211	$4,933	$5,407	$4,949	$6,811	$7,943	$7,943
Y/Y Growth		12.1%	(5.3%)	9.6%	(8.5%)		16.6%	0.0%
Implied Costs	(2,837)	(3,084)	(3,643)	(3,541)	(3,537)	(4,758)	(5,676)	(5,676)
Adj. EBITDA	$1,811	$2,127	$1,290	$1,866	$1,412	$2,053	$2,267	$2,267
Margin	39.0%	40.8%	26.2%	34.5%	28.5%	30.1%	28.5%	28.5%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	(15)	(12)	--	--	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$1,811	$2,127	$1,275	$1,854	$1,412	$2,053	$2,267	$2,267
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(273)	(330)	(437)	(431)	(372)	(526)	(228)	(228)
(-) Cash Taxes	(320)	(370)	(169)	(254)	(208)	(100)	(200)	(200)
(-) Capex	(151)	(157)	(149)	(145)	(148)	(167)	(195)	(195)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	(3)	(24)	330	81	59	30	--	--
Memo: FCF	$1,064	$1,246	$850	$1,105	$743	$1,290	$1,644	$1,644
% of Debt	9.3%	10.9%	7.5%	9.7%	6.5%	11.3%	14.4%	14.4%

Key Drivers

Driver	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E	Sensitivity	Next 12m impact ($mm)
Distribution revenue (retransmission, carriage and CW affiliation fees) $ millions per quarter	720	837	1,116	1,091	1,072	1,135	1,116	1,091	1,072	1,135	1,116	1,091	$1.0mm on revenue	650
Political advertising revenue $ millions per quarter	21	47	147	317	21	47	147	317	21	47	147	317	$1.0mm on revenue	--
Non-political (core) advertising revenue $ millions per quarter	528	501	715	706	789	722	715	706	789	722	715	706	$1.0mm on revenue	482
Direct operating expense (network affiliation fees, news and technical) $ millions per quarter	565	611	929	936	565	611	929	936	565	611	929	936	$1.0mm on cost of revenue	--

Nexstar closed the TEGNA merger on March 19, 2026, lifting quarterly net revenue to $2.13 billion and Adjusted EBITDA to $756 million in Q3 2026, with $1.1 billion of distribution revenue as the stable base and record midterm political advertising of $317 million on top. Debt is $11.4 billion with total net leverage of 4.04x on a two-year average EBITDA covenant basis, so the next year turns on how much of the Q4 2026 political windfall goes to debt paydown before 2027, an off-year when political falls back to tens of millions a quarter. The other swing factors are distribution rate renewals against MVPD subscriber losses, soft core advertising, and whether the preliminary injunction (trial set for July 6, 2027) keeps blocking TEGNA cost synergies in direct operating and SG&A expense.

Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case

$ in millions	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E
Revenue	$1,289	$1,396	$1,993	$2,133	$1,902	$1,915	$1,993	$2,133	$1,902	$1,915	$1,993	$2,133
Y/Y Growth	(13.3%)	13.1%	62.2%	78.0%	47.6%	37.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Adj. EBITDA	$380	$406	$560	$707	$520	$527	$525	$695	$520	$527	$525	$695
Margin	29.5%	29.1%	28.1%	33.1%	27.3%	27.5%	26.3%	32.6%	27.3%	27.5%	26.3%	32.6%
Free Cash Flow	$136	$267	$253	$634	$366	$373	$369	$536	$366	$373	$369	$536
Cash, end of period	280	379	218	446	812	1,185	1,554	2,090	2,456	2,829	3,198	3,734
Total Debt, end of period	6,333	12,152	11,744	11,409	11,409	11,409	11,409	11,409	11,409	11,409	11,409	11,409
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	4.3x	8.1x	7.0x	5.3x	4.8x	4.4x	4.3x	4.1x	3.9x	3.8x	3.6x	3.4x

Revenue is built from Distribution Service, Advertising, Other, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.

Earnings call: Q3 2026 · Nov 5, 2026

Slides Webcast and audio replay Investor relations site

First full quarter with TEGNA brought record revenue of $2.13 billion, EBITDA of $756 million and $443 million of adjusted free cash flow, all used to pay down debt.

Takeaways

Net revenue rose 78% to $2.13 billion. TEGNA added $765 million, and political advertising hit a third quarter record of $317 million in the midterm year.
Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $756 million, and margin widened to 35.4% from 29.9%. TEGNA contributed $243 million of the EBITDA.
Operating cash flow was $680 million and adjusted free cash flow was $443 million. Year to date adjusted free cash flow reached $1.1 billion.
Total net leverage fell to 4.04x from 4.22x at June 30, and first lien net leverage fell to 3.03x against a 4.75x covenant. These ratios exclude any TEGNA synergies.
A preliminary injunction still keeps TEGNA held separate, which blocks synergy work. Trial is set for July 6, 2027, so the company dropped synergies from its covenant math.
Legacy non-political advertising was weaker, partly from political crowd-out. Distribution revenue grew on rate increases and streaming subscribers, offset by pay TV attrition and lost CBS affiliations at six stations.

Debt and capital

Consolidated debt, including Mission Broadcasting, was $11.4 billion at September 30, 2026, versus $6.3 billion at year end 2025. Senior secured debt was $8.6 billion.
Debt mix: $4.85 billion of secured credit facilities, $3.80 billion of secured notes and $2.76 billion of unsecured notes. Cash was $446 million.
Nexstar repaid $350 million of debt in Q3 and another $525 million of secured credit facilities after quarter end. Year to date repayments total about $1.3 billion through November 5.
In April 2026 the company issued $1.725 billion of unsecured notes due 2034 to refinance $1.714 billion of notes due July 2027, clearing that near term maturity.
Dividends were $58 million in Q3. There were no share buybacks in 2026 to date, versus $125 million in the first nine months of 2025.

Guidance

No revenue, EBITDA or free cash flow guidance was given in the press release.
Management signaled continued debt reduction and dividends, plus ongoing investment in local news and sports programming.

Tone: Confident on cash generation and deleveraging, while the TEGNA antitrust case remains the main open risk.

Q2 2026Slides · Webcast
Q1 2026Slides · Webcast
Q4 2025Slides · Webcast

Summary written with AI from Press release only. Nexstar does not post earnings slides or a transcript for its calls, and the Q3 2026 results 8-K carries only the press release as exhibit 99.1.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.

Last quarter: Third quarter 2026

TEGNA and election ads lifted revenue 78% to $2.1bn and Adjusted EBITDA to $756mm, while total net leverage eased to 4.04x.

Results

Net revenue was $2,133mm, up 78% from $1,198mm a year earlier; $765mm of the gain came from TEGNA, acquired in the first quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA was $756mm versus $358mm, a 35.4% margin versus 29.9%; TEGNA added $243mm.
Net income was $250mm versus $65mm.
Operating cash flow was $680mm and capex $46mm, giving Free Cash Flow of $634mm; Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $443mm versus $166mm.
Political advertising was $317mm, a third-quarter record for the company.

Why

Distribution revenue rose 54% to $1,091mm, with $352mm from TEGNA plus higher rates and streaming subscribers, partly offset by pay TV subscriber losses and the loss of CBS on six stations.
Advertising revenue more than doubled to $1,023mm, with $405mm from TEGNA and $163mm more political at the legacy stations; political ads crowded out some core advertising.
Interest expense nearly doubled to $186mm from $94mm and the quarter carried $30mm of deal and restructuring costs, both tied to TEGNA.
Working capital timing added to operating cash flow; the company strips this out of Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($258mm reduction in the reconciliation).

Balance sheet and guidance

Consolidated debt, including Mission Broadcasting, was $11,409mm at September 30, down from $11,744mm at June 30; senior secured debt was $8.6bn and cash was $446mm.
Total net leverage under the credit agreements was 4.04x and first lien net leverage 3.03x against a 4.75x covenant test, both excluding TEGNA synergies.
The company repaid $350mm of debt in the quarter and another $525mm of secured credit facilities after quarter end; it paid $58mm of dividends.

What to watch

A preliminary injunction is blocking TEGNA synergies; trial is set for July 6, 2027, close to the September 19, 2027 cutoff for counting synergies in covenant ratios.
Covenant headroom: first lien net leverage was 3.03x against a 4.75x test that the company raised after the TEGNA close for a limited number of quarters.
Whether debt paydown keeps pace once election-year political advertising ($317mm in the third quarter) falls away in 2027.

From the company's press release filed Nov 5, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.

Filings

Earnings releases 8

Nov 5, 20268-K for Nov 5, 2026: Results · Press release
Aug 6, 20268-K for Aug 6, 2026: Results · Press release
May 7, 20268-K for May 7, 2026: Results · Press release
Feb 26, 20268-K for Feb 26, 2026: Results · Press release
Nov 6, 20258-K for Nov 6, 2025: Results · Press release
Aug 7, 20258-K for Aug 7, 2025: Results · Press release
May 8, 20258-K for May 8, 2025: Results · Press release
Feb 27, 20258-K for Feb 27, 2025: Results · Press release

Annual reports (10-K) 5

Quarterly reports (10-Q) 12

Current reports (8-K) 20

Oct 30, 20268-K for Oct 29, 2026: Other event
Aug 3, 20268-K for Jul 30, 2026: Other event
Jun 16, 20268-K for Jun 16, 2026: Shareholder vote; Regulation FD
May 1, 20268-K for Apr 30, 2026: Other event
Apr 2, 20268-K for Apr 2, 2026: Material agreement; New debt
Mar 30, 20268-K for Mar 24, 2026: Material agreement; Agreement terminated; New debt
Mar 20, 20268-K for Mar 20, 2026: Regulation FD
Mar 20, 20268-K for Mar 19, 2026: Material agreement; Acquisition or disposal completed; New debt; Regulation FD
Feb 3, 20268-K for Jan 29, 2026: Other event
Oct 31, 20258-K for Oct 30, 2025: Other event
Oct 30, 20258-K for Oct 28, 2025: Director or officer change; Regulation FD
Oct 29, 20258-K for Oct 28, 2025: Other event
Aug 19, 20258-K for Aug 18, 2025: Material agreement; Regulation FD
Aug 1, 20258-K for Jul 31, 2025: Other event
Jun 30, 20258-K for Jun 27, 2025: Material agreement; New debt; Regulation FD; Other event
Jun 20, 20258-K for Jun 17, 2025: Shareholder vote
May 5, 20258-K for May 2, 2025: Other event
Mar 26, 20258-K for Mar 21, 2025: Director or officer change
Jan 29, 20258-K for Jan 28, 2025: Other event
Nov 4, 20248-K for Oct 31, 2024: Other event

Proxy statements 3

Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.

Coming up

Feb 26, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
Jun 1, 2027Maturity. 7.75% Notes due 2027 (Belo): $200mm outstanding comes due.
Sep 15, 2027Maturity. 7.25% Notes due 2027 (Belo): $240mm outstanding comes due.
Jun 3, 2028Maturity. Mission Term Loan B due 2028 (Term B-4): $285mm outstanding comes due.
Nov 1, 2028Maturity. 4.750% Senior Notes due 2028: $1,000mm outstanding comes due.

Recent 8-K filings

Nov 5, 2026Reported results
Oct 30, 2026Other event
Aug 6, 2026Reported results
Aug 3, 2026Other event
Jun 16, 2026Shareholder vote; Regulation FD disclosure