O-I's credit over the next year turns on whether European margins recover from near zero: segment profit there fell to $2 million in the third quarter as weaker prices met energy contracts that reset higher and a European gas price that jumped to about $21 per MMBtu. Shipments are still falling but by less each quarter (down 9%, 5%, then 3% in 2026), and the company guides flat volume plus about $170 million of further Fit to Win savings in 2027 to rebuild EBITDA from the $925 to $950 million guided for 2026. With free cash flow guided at about negative $300 million for 2026 and leverage heading to 4.5 to 5.0 times, a second year of high gas prices or weak European pricing would leave little cushion.
Leverage falls from 29.9x to 15.0x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
The company burns $532mm of cash over the next year on the starting case, so liquidity has to fund it.
Net debt grows from $4.42bn to $4.95bn.
Liquidity a year out is $1.00bn, against $1.53bn today.
Company guidance for fiscal 2026: adjusted EBITDA of $925mm to $950mm on its own definition, free cash flow of -$300mm.
Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.
Capital Structure
Cap Structure
Amt Out.
Mkt Price
Yield
Lev. Through
View
Unrestricted Cash
$379.0
Term Loans A due 2030 (Tranche A-1 in U.S. dollars and Tranche A-2 in euros)
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow
$809.0
Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.
The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.
The governing debt documents are listed and linked below. The review of baskets and loopholes, and the score, have not been run for this company yet.
Mar 25, 2022Intercreditor Agreement dated March 25, 2022, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. as Administrative Agent and Collateral Agent · intercreditor or security agreement · Sharing of collateral among the Multicurrency Revolving Credit Facility due 2030, Term Loans A due 2030, Term Loans B due 2032 and other permitted secured credit exposure. The 2025 credit agreement defines the Intercreditor Agreement as an amended and restated version dated September 30, 2025, which is not filed. This is the latest public text.
Scores and summaries are an analyst-style reading of the documents produced with AI and checked against the text. They are not legal advice. Read the document before relying on any point.
Glass container shipments (tons, change from a year earlier)% change from a year earlier
-8.2
-9.0
-5.0
-3.0
-2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$16.0mm on revenue
(32)
Average selling price (change from a year earlier)% change from a year earlier
0.0
-0.8
0.2
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$16.0mm on revenue
--
European natural gas price$ per MMBtu
10.24
13.62
15.55
21.45
10.24
13.62
15.55
21.45
10.24
13.62
15.55
21.45
$5.5mm on cost of revenue
--
Fit to Win cost savings$ millions of benefit per quarter
80
35
50
50
45
43
43
43
43
0
0
0
$-1.0mm on cost of revenue
(173)
Euro to US dollar exchange rate$ per euro
1.164
1.170
1.163
1.151
1.164
1.170
1.163
1.151
1.164
1.170
1.163
1.151
$55.0mm on revenue
--
O-I's credit over the next year turns on whether European margins recover from near zero: segment profit there fell to $2 million in the third quarter as weaker prices met energy contracts that reset higher and a European gas price that jumped to about $21 per MMBtu. Shipments are still falling but by less each quarter (down 9%, 5%, then 3% in 2026), and the company guides flat volume plus about $170 million of further Fit to Win savings in 2027 to rebuild EBITDA from the $925 to $950 million guided for 2026. With free cash flow guided at about negative $300 million for 2026 and leverage heading to 4.5 to 5.0 times, a second year of high gas prices or weak European pricing would leave little cushion.
Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case
$ in millions
4Q25A
1Q26A
2Q26A
3Q26A
4Q26E
1Q27E
2Q27E
3Q27E
4Q27E
1Q28E
2Q28E
3Q28E
Revenue
$1,500
$1,540
$1,668
$1,623
$1,468
$1,540
$1,668
$1,623
$1,468
$1,540
$1,668
$1,623
Y/Y Growth
(1.9%)
(1.7%)
(2.2%)
(1.8%)
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Adj. EBITDA
($305)
$106
$183
$164
($263)
$154
$232
$206
($220)
$154
$232
$206
Margin
(20.3%)
6.9%
11.0%
10.1%
(17.9%)
10.0%
13.9%
12.7%
(15.0%)
10.0%
13.9%
12.7%
Free Cash Flow
$309
($436)
($1)
$84
($471)
($59)
$11
($12)
($429)
($59)
$11
($12)
Cash, end of period
759
317
339
379
(92)
(151)
(140)
(153)
(581)
(640)
(629)
(642)
Total Debt, end of period
4,903
4,864
4,856
4,799
4,799
4,799
4,799
4,799
4,799
4,799
4,799
4,799
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA
10.4x
16.0x
20.0x
29.9x
25.7x
20.8x
17.2x
15.0x
14.4x
14.6x
14.6x
14.6x
Revenue is built from Alcoholic Beverages, Food and Other, Nonalcoholic Beverage, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.
Americas held steady but Europe profit nearly vanished, and O-I cut its 2026 EBITDA and cash flow outlook again, with leverage now seen at 4.5x to 5.0x.
Takeaways
Net sales fell 2 percent to $1.62 billion. Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $234 million from $329 million a year ago, and adjusted EPS swung to a $0.09 loss.
Europe segment profit collapsed to $2 million from $95 million on lower prices, weak wine demand in the south, and energy and freight costs about $15 million above plan. The Americas earned $137 million, down only slightly.
Free cash flow for 2026 is now guided to a use of about $300 million, versus a prior range of a $50 to $150 million use. Year to date operating cash flow was negative $35 million after $318 million of capex.
Liquidity was about $1.5 billion at quarter end, made up of $1,154 million of revolver capacity and $379 million of cash. Total debt was about $4.9 billion.
Management expects net leverage of 4.5x to 5.0x at year end, up from 3.5x at the end of 2025. Earlier in the year O-I wrote off $873 million of goodwill and equity fell to $536 million.
O-I proposed permanently closing a European plant, with $100 to $120 million of fourth quarter charges, of which $40 to $50 million is cash. It dropped its 2027 targets and will give 2027 guidance in February.
Debt and capital
In May 2026 subsidiary Owens-Brockway issued $500 million of 9.500% senior notes due 2033 and used the proceeds, revolver borrowings and cash to redeem its 6.625% notes due 2027, clearing that maturity.
Total debt was about $4.9 billion at September 30, 2026, with $183 million due within one year and $4,736 million long term.
Liquidity of about $1.5 billion includes $1,154 million of undrawn revolver capacity.
Share buybacks were $10 million year to date, down from $30 million in the same period of 2025.
Receivables sold under factoring programs stood at $457 million at quarter end.
Management said it is focused on strengthening free cash flow and reducing leverage, but gave no new leverage target.
Guidance
2026 adjusted EBITDA cut to $925 to $950 million from $1.0 to $1.1 billion (2025 actual was $1,218 million).
2026 free cash flow cut to a use of about $300 million from a use of $50 to $150 million; operating cash flow about $125 million and capex about $425 million.
Year end net leverage now expected at 4.5x to 5.0x, versus a prior outlook of 4x or above.
Fit to Win cost savings for 2026 lowered to about $180 million from at least $200 million. The target of at least $650 million cumulative by 2027 was held.
Prior 2027 financial targets withdrawn. Management still expects higher sales, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow in 2027.
Tone: Defensive and cautious, with management owning a weak Europe while pointing to early operating gains and a better 2027.
Summary written with AI from Press release and earnings materials only. O-I does not publish a call transcript or prepared remarks on its IR site or with the SEC.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.
Last quarter: Third quarter 2026
Europe's profit nearly disappeared, adjusted EBITDA fell to $234mm, and the company cut its 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow outlook.
Results
Third quarter net sales were $1.62bn, down 2% from $1.65bn a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA was $234mm against $329mm a year earlier. Segment operating profit was $139mm against $235mm.
Net loss attributable to the company was $13mm, or $0.08 per share, against earnings of $30mm, or $0.19 per share. The adjusted loss was $0.09 per share against adjusted earnings of $0.48.
Cash provided by operating activities was $165mm in the quarter against $214mm, and capital spending was $81mm against $100mm. For the nine months, operating activities used $35mm of cash and capital spending was $318mm.
Why
Europe sales fell 8% to $634mm on 3.8% lower selling prices and 3.7% lower tons shipped. Segment operating profit there was $2mm against $95mm, mostly from price falling behind cost inflation.
Energy and freight costs in Europe ran about $15mm above what management expected going into the quarter. Wine demand in Southern Europe stayed weak.
Americas sales rose more than 3% to $970mm on 1.6% higher prices and currency, with tons down 1.3%. Segment operating profit was $137mm against $140mm.
The Fit to Win cost program delivered about $50mm of benefits in the quarter and $135mm in the nine months. The 2026 target was lowered to about $180mm from at least $200mm.
Balance sheet and guidance
Cash was $379mm at September 30, 2026, down from $759mm at year-end 2025. Total liquidity was $1.53bn, including $1.15bn of revolver capacity.
Long-term debt was $4.74bn, plus $183mm of short-term loans and debt due within one year.
The release does not state leverage at quarter end. The company expects its net debt leverage ratio to be about 4.5x to 5.0x at year-end 2026, against 3.5x at year-end 2025.
Cut: 2026 adjusted EBITDA is now expected at $925mm to $950mm, down from $1.0bn to $1.1bn. 2025 was $1.22bn.
Cut: 2026 free cash flow is now expected to be a use of about $300mm, against a prior use of $50mm to $150mm. That assumes about $125mm of operating cash flow and $425mm of capital spending.
Year-end leverage is now expected at 4.5x to 5.0x, against a prior outlook of 4x or more.
The company withdrew its 2027 targets. It says it expects higher net sales, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow in 2027 and will give guidance with year-end results.
A proposed plant closure in Europe is expected to bring fourth quarter charges of $100mm to $120mm, of which $40mm to $50mm is future cash.
What to watch
Leverage is guided to 4.5x to 5.0x at year end, up from 3.5x a year earlier. Watch where it lands and how much revolver capacity is left after a $300mm free cash flow use.
Europe earned $2mm of segment profit in the quarter. The recovery plan depends on better pricing against energy and freight costs, so watch net price in Europe and any further cost overrun.
The proposed European plant closure adds $40mm to $50mm of future cash cost, and the company cites higher inventory from soft shipments. Watch working capital and restructuring cash in the fourth quarter.
From the company's press release filed Oct 27, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.
Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.
Coming up
Feb 11, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
May 15, 2028Maturity. 6.250% Senior Notes due 2028 (EUR 600mm): $680mm outstanding comes due.