Post (POST) | Credit Investor

Next 12 Months: Starting Case

$ in millions	Last 12 Months	Next Quarter (4Q26E)	vs. 4Q25A	Next 12 Months	Change
Revenue	$8,413	$2,226	(0.9%)	$8,356	(0.7%)
Adj. EBITDA	$1,472	$358	6.4%	$1,447	(1.7%)
Free Cash Flow	$553	$110	(27.3%)	$483	(12.7%)
Net Debt, end of period	$7,367	$7,257		$6,884	(6.6%)
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	5.0x	4.9x		4.8x	-0.2x
Total Liquidity, end of period	$1,242	$1,353		$1,726	38.9%

The credit over the next year

Post is a 4.6x levered cereal, pet food and egg company whose earnings are now coming down from a bird flu windfall. Wholesale egg prices fell from $6.75 a dozen in early 2025 to $0.67 in mid 2026, and management says about $60mm of fiscal 2026 Foodservice profit sits above a $500mm normal run rate. It guides fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA roughly flat at about $1.48bn, down from $1.56 to $1.57bn in fiscal 2026. The credit turns on three things: whether pet food and cereal volume losses of 5% to 14% a year slow down, whether Foodservice egg volume growth replaces the lost bird flu pricing, and whether pricing and productivity hold gross margin near 29% to 30% against tariffs and freight while about $7.7bn of principal debt and continued buybacks keep leverage above 4.5x.

Leverage falls from 5.0x to 4.8x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
Free cash flow of $483mm is projected over the next year, with no itemised debt due in that time.
Net debt shrinks from $7.37bn to $6.88bn.
Liquidity a year out is $1.73bn, against $1.24bn today.
Company guidance for fiscal 2026: adjusted EBITDA of $1.56bn to $1.57bn on its own definition.

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure

Cap Structure	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	Yield	Lev. Through	View
Unrestricted Cash	$265.6
Revolving Credit Facility due 2029	0.0	100.0%	N/a	0.0x	Bullish
6.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2032	1,000.0	100.9%*	6.05%	0.7x	Bullish
2.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027	575.0	100.0%	2.50%	1.1x	Bullish
Municipal bond (Chaska, Minnesota industrial revenue bonds)	1.8	100.0%	N/a	1.1x	Bullish
4.625% Senior Notes due 2030	1,385.4	96.4%*	5.65%	2.0x	Bullish
4.50% Senior Notes due 2031	980.6	93.0%*	6.15%	2.7x	Bullish
6.375% Senior Notes due 2033	1,200.0	98.3%*	6.71%	3.5x	Neutral
6.250% Senior Notes due 2034	1,200.0	96.3%*	6.83%	4.3x	Neutral
6.50% Senior Notes due 2036	1,300.0	96.9%*	6.96%	5.2x	Neutral
Leaseback financial liabilities (Fitzgerald, Georgia nut butter plants)	33.2	100.0%	N/a	5.2x	Neutral
Total Debt	$7,632.6			5.2x
Net Debt	$7,367.0			5.0x

Last Twelve Months

Revenue	$8,413
Implied Costs	(6,941)
Adj. EBITDA	$1,472
(-) Interest Expense	(419)
(-) Capex	(440)
Memo: FCF	$553
Total Liquidity	$1,242.4

Next 12 months, starting case▶ Revenue $8.41bn → $8.36bn▶ Adj. EBITDA $1.47bn → $1.45bn▼ Free cash flow $553mm → $483mm▼ Net leverage 5.0x → 4.8x▲ Liquidity $1.24bn → $1.73bn

Post

			6/30/26						Face Value / Adj. EBITDA
Cap Structure	Coupon	Maturity	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	YTM	Next Call	Yield to Call	View	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Unrestricted Cash			$265.6
Undrawn Revolver ($1,000mm facility)			976.8
Total Liquidity			$1,242.4

Revolving Credit Facility due 2029	S + 150 to 200	2/20/2029	0.0	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
6.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2032	6.25%	2/15/2032	1,000.0	100.9%*	6.05%	2/15/2027 @ 103.125	10.51%	Bullish
Total Secured Debt			$1,000.0						1.1x	1.2x	0.9x	0.7x	0.7x	0.7x	0.7x	0.7x
Net Secured Debt			$734.4						0.8x	0.9x	0.7x	0.5x	0.5x	0.5x	0.5x	0.5x

2.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027	2.50%	8/15/2027	575.0	100.0%	2.50%	N/a	N/a	Bullish
Municipal bond (Chaska, Minnesota industrial revenue bonds)	N/a	3/1/2028	1.8	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Bullish
4.625% Senior Notes due 2030	4.625%	4/15/2030	1,385.4	96.4%*	5.65%	4/15/2027 @ 100.771	9.26%	Bullish
4.50% Senior Notes due 2031	4.50%	9/15/2031	980.6	93.0%*	6.15%	9/15/2026 @ 102.25	24.71%	Bullish
6.375% Senior Notes due 2033	6.375%	3/1/2033	1,200.0	98.3%*	6.71%	9/1/2027 @ 103.188	11.37%	Neutral
6.250% Senior Notes due 2034	6.25%	10/15/2034	1,200.0	96.3%*	6.83%	10/15/2029 @ 103.125	8.27%	Neutral
6.50% Senior Notes due 2036	6.50%	3/15/2036	1,300.0	96.9%*	6.96%	3/15/2031 @ 103.25	7.96%	Neutral
Leaseback financial liabilities (Fitzgerald, Georgia nut butter plants)	9.29%	N/a	33.2	100.0%	N/a	N/a	N/a	Neutral
Other debt, discounts and issuance costs	N/a	N/a	(43.4)
Total Debt			$7,632.6						8.4x	8.9x	6.8x	5.6x	5.3x	5.2x	5.3x	5.4x
Net Debt			$7,367.0						8.1x	8.6x	6.5x	5.4x	5.1x	5.0x	4.8x	4.5x
						Adj. EBITDA			$908	$862	$1,125	$1,362	$1,445	$1,472	$1,447	$1,426

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$4,981	$5,851	$6,991	$7,923	$8,158	$8,413	$8,356	$8,299
Y/Y Growth		17.5%	19.5%	13.3%	3.0%		(0.7%)	(0.7%)
(-) Cost of Revenue	(3,553)	(4,384)	(5,109)	(5,618)	(5,819)	(5,988)	(5,967)	(5,942)
Gross Profit	$1,428	$1,468	$1,882	$2,305	$2,339	$2,425	$2,389	$2,357
Gross Margin	28.7%	25.1%	26.9%	29.1%	28.7%	28.8%	28.6%	28.4%
(-) SG&A	(807)	(905)	(1,078)	(1,330)	(1,309)	(1,360)	(1,351)	(1,342)
(+/-) Other Operating Costs, net of D&A	233	233	203	296	293	314	326	327
EBITDA	$854	$796	$1,006	$1,270	$1,324	$1,378	$1,364	$1,343
(+) Add-backs: stock comp, restructuring, impairments	53	66	119	92	121	93	83	83
Adj. EBITDA	$908	$862	$1,125	$1,362	$1,445	$1,472	$1,447	$1,426
Margin	18.2%	14.7%	16.1%	17.2%	17.7%	17.5%	17.3%	17.2%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	(5)	--	--	(7)	(10)	(10)	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$903	$862	$1,125	$1,355	$1,435	$1,461	$1,447	$1,426
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(348)	(320)	(300)	(321)	(370)	(419)	(428)	(428)
(-) Capex	(191)	(255)	(303)	(430)	(510)	(440)	(436)	(433)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	34	(159)	(75)	(102)	(67)	(50)	--	--
Memo: FCF	$397	$127	$447	$502	$488	$553	$483	$465
% of Debt	5.2%	1.7%	5.9%	6.6%	6.4%	7.2%	6.3%	6.1%

Liquidity

Unrestricted Cash	$265.6
Undrawn Revolver	976.8
Total Liquidity	$1,242.4
(-) Debt due through 2028	(576.8)
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months	553.1
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow	$1,218.7

Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.

The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$4,981	$5,851	$6,991	$7,923	$8,158	$8,413	$8,356	$8,299
Y/Y Growth		17.5%	19.5%	13.3%	3.0%		(0.7%)	(0.7%)
(-) Cost of Revenue	(3,553)	(4,384)	(5,109)	(5,618)	(5,819)	(5,988)	(5,967)	(5,942)
Gross Profit	$1,428	$1,468	$1,882	$2,305	$2,339	$2,425	$2,389	$2,357
Gross Margin	28.7%	25.1%	26.9%	29.1%	28.7%	28.8%	28.6%	28.4%
(-) SG&A	(807)	(905)	(1,078)	(1,330)	(1,309)	(1,360)	(1,351)	(1,342)
(+/-) Other Operating Costs, net of D&A	233	233	203	296	293	314	326	327
EBITDA	$854	$796	$1,006	$1,270	$1,324	$1,378	$1,364	$1,343
(+) Add-backs: stock comp, restructuring, impairments	53	66	119	92	121	93	83	83
Adj. EBITDA	$908	$862	$1,125	$1,362	$1,445	$1,472	$1,447	$1,426
Margin	18.2%	14.7%	16.1%	17.2%	17.7%	17.5%	17.3%	17.2%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	(5)	--	--	(7)	(10)	(10)	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$903	$862	$1,125	$1,355	$1,435	$1,461	$1,447	$1,426
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(348)	(320)	(300)	(321)	(370)	(419)	(428)	(428)
(-) Capex	(191)	(255)	(303)	(430)	(510)	(440)	(436)	(433)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	34	(159)	(75)	(102)	(67)	(50)	--	--
Memo: FCF	$397	$127	$447	$502	$488	$553	$483	$465
% of Debt	5.2%	1.7%	5.9%	6.6%	6.4%	7.2%	6.3%	6.1%

Key Drivers

Driver	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E	Sensitivity	Next 12m impact ($mm)
Post Consumer Brands pet food volume % change vs prior year quarter	-13.2	-6.2	-14.1	-7.8	-13.2	-6.2	-14.1	-7.8	-13.2	-6.2	-14.1	-7.8	$3.2mm on revenue	(132)
Post Consumer Brands cereal and granola volume % change vs prior year quarter	-8.1	-5.1	-3.5	-5.5	-8.1	-5.1	-3.5	-5.5	-8.1	-5.1	-3.5	-5.5	$4.8mm on revenue	(107)
Foodservice volume % change vs prior year quarter	9.3	7.7	6.7	4.3	9.3	7.7	6.7	4.3	9.3	7.7	6.7	4.3	$6.5mm on revenue	182
U.S. wholesale egg price (New York Grade A large) $ per dozen	2.83	1.92	1.25	0.67	2.83	1.92	1.25	0.67	2.83	1.92	1.25	0.67	$25.0mm on cost of revenue	--
Consolidated gross margin % of net sales	26.8	29.4	30.2	29.1	28.2	28.6	29.4	28.3	27.4	28.6	29.4	28.3	$-19.5mm on cost of revenue	20

Post is a 4.6x levered cereal, pet food and egg company whose earnings are now coming down from a bird flu windfall. Wholesale egg prices fell from $6.75 a dozen in early 2025 to $0.67 in mid 2026, and management says about $60mm of fiscal 2026 Foodservice profit sits above a $500mm normal run rate. It guides fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA roughly flat at about $1.48bn, down from $1.56 to $1.57bn in fiscal 2026. The credit turns on three things: whether pet food and cereal volume losses of 5% to 14% a year slow down, whether Foodservice egg volume growth replaces the lost bird flu pricing, and whether pricing and productivity hold gross margin near 29% to 30% against tariffs and freight while about $7.7bn of principal debt and continued buybacks keep leverage above 4.5x.

Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case

$ in millions	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E
Revenue	$2,247	$2,175	$2,043	$1,948	$2,226	$2,180	$2,025	$1,925	$2,206	$2,186	$2,006	$1,901
Y/Y Growth	11.8%	10.1%	4.7%	(1.8%)	(0.9%)	0.3%	(0.9%)	(1.2%)	(0.9%)	0.3%	(0.9%)	(1.2%)
Adj. EBITDA	$337	$414	$370	$351	$358	$388	$358	$343	$341	$388	$356	$341
Margin	15.0%	19.0%	18.1%	18.0%	16.1%	17.8%	17.7%	17.8%	15.5%	17.8%	17.7%	17.9%
Free Cash Flow	$152	$119	$151	$131	$110	$142	$120	$111	$94	$142	$119	$110
Cash, end of period	177	279	269	266	376	518	638	749	843	985	1,104	1,214
Total Debt, end of period	7,423	7,459	7,630	7,633	7,633	7,633	7,633	7,633	7,633	7,633	7,633	7,633
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	5.1x	4.9x	4.9x	5.0x	4.9x	4.9x	4.8x	4.8x	4.7x	4.6x	4.6x	4.5x

Revenue is built from one revenue line, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.

Earnings call: Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) · Aug 7, 2026

Slides Webcast and audio replay Prepared remarks Investor relations site

Q3 sales fell 1.8% to $1.95 billion and Adjusted EBITDA fell 5% to $377 million as egg pricing normalized, while Post narrowed FY2026 guidance and signaled a flat FY2027 and more debt paydown.

Takeaways

Revenue and margin are drifting lower. Excluding deals, sales fell about 9%. Adjusted EBITDA margin slipped to 19.4% from 20.0% as last year's avian flu egg pricing rolled off.
Underlying volumes are weak. Pet food shipments fell 7.8% and cereal and granola 5.5%. Cost cuts lifted margins in cereal and Weetabix, but this is a shrinking top line.
Free cash flow was $131 million in the quarter and $401.5 million for nine months, up from $336.5 million, mainly on lower capex.
Credit agreement net leverage was 4.6x on net debt of $7.41 billion. Interest coverage was 3.8x against a 2.0x incurrence test. Liquidity, cash plus undrawn revolver, was over $1.2 billion.
Buybacks were heavy. Post spent $908.8 million on 9.1 million shares in nine months, about 17% of the share count. Management now says debt reduction will take a bigger share of capital next year, absent M&A.
Portfolio pruning continued: the 8th Avenue pasta business was sold December 1, 2025 and the Crystal Farms cheese business on May 1, 2026. Interest expense rose to $108.2 million from $88.5 million on more debt and higher rates.

Debt and capital

Total principal debt was $7,676.0 million at June 30, 2026, including convertible notes, with cash of $265.6 million.
Net leverage under the credit agreement was 4.6x, which management calls in line with its mid-4x target for current rates.
Excluding the convertible notes, the next bond maturity is about four years out. Weighted-average maturity of the debt ladder is over six years.
December 2025: issued $1.3 billion of 6.50% senior notes due 2036 and redeemed all 5.50% senior notes due 2029, booking a $17.5 million extinguishment loss.
March 2026: added $600 million to the 6.250% senior notes due 2034 at 100.75% of par.
Repurchased 2.1 million shares for $198.9 million in Q3 and another $39.3 million through August 5. About $490.7 million remained under the buyback authorization.
Management expects debt reduction to be a larger part of capital deployment over the next year, while still buying back stock opportunistically.

Guidance

FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA narrowed to $1,560 to $1,570 million from $1,550 to $1,580 million. The midpoint of $1,565 million was held.
Implied Q4 Adjusted EBITDA roughly flat to Q3, with Foodservice falling toward run rate and Refrigerated Retail improving.
FY2026 capex updated to $370 to $390 million, including $80 to $90 million for cage-free egg and Norwalk, Iowa egg plant expansions.
Preliminary FY2027 Adjusted EBITDA is guided roughly flat versus a comparable base of about $1.48 billion. That base strips out about $60 million of Foodservice earnings above its $500 million run rate and about $20 million from divested businesses.
Q4 FY2026 results are scheduled for November 19, 2026, with the Q&A call on November 20, 2026.

Tone: Measured and steady: management framed the earnings decline as the expected unwind of egg pricing and leaned on leverage discipline and a shift toward debt paydown.

Q2 FY2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026)Slides · Webcast
Q1 FY2026 (quarter ended December 31, 2025)Slides · Webcast
Q4 FY2025 (quarter ended September 30, 2025)Slides · Webcast

Summary written with AI from Company-published prepared management remarks plus the Q3 FY2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1). Post publishes remarks in advance and uses the call for Q&A only; no company-published Q&A transcript was found.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.

Last quarter: Third quarter 2026

Sales fell 1.8% and Adjusted EBITDA fell 5% to $377mm as egg pricing normalized; fiscal 2026 guidance was narrowed.

Results

This covers Post's fiscal third quarter, which ended June 30, 2026.
Net sales were $1,948mm, down from $1,984mm a year earlier; 8th Avenue added $142mm.
Adjusted EBITDA was $377mm, down from $397mm, a margin of 19.4% against 20.0%.
Net earnings fell to $63mm from $109mm, and operating profit fell to $189mm from $235mm.
Nine-month free cash flow was $402mm after $290mm of capex; the quarter alone works out to about $131mm of free cash flow on $82mm of capex (nine months less six months).

Why

Foodservice segment Adjusted EBITDA fell 11% to $141mm as the company lapped avian influenza pricing from the prior year, even though volumes rose 4.3%.
Post Consumer Brands segment Adjusted EBITDA rose 11% to $197mm on the 8th Avenue acquisition, but underlying volumes fell 7.1%, with pet food down 7.8% and cereal down 5.5%.
Refrigerated Retail segment Adjusted EBITDA fell 41% to $27mm after the May 1, 2026 sale of the Crystal Farms business and a later Easter.
Interest expense rose to $108mm from $89mm on more debt and a higher average rate.

Balance sheet and guidance

Total principal debt was $7,676mm and cash was $266mm, for net debt of $7,410mm.
Net leverage under the credit agreement was 4.6x, up from 4.5x at March 31, 2026; interest coverage was 3.8x.
Post bought back $199mm of stock in the quarter and $909mm over nine months, with $491mm left on its authorization as of August 5, 2026.
Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was narrowed to $1,560mm to $1,570mm from $1,550mm to $1,580mm.
Fiscal 2026 capex guidance moved to $370mm to $390mm from $350mm to $390mm.
Preliminary fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be roughly flat against a comparable base of about $1.48bn, which strips out about $60mm of above-normal Foodservice earnings and about $20mm from divested businesses.

What to watch

Whether fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA holds near $1.48bn, about $136mm below the $1,616mm trailing twelve months, which would push leverage higher at today's debt.
Leverage drift: net leverage rose to 4.6x while buybacks of $909mm over nine months ran ahead of the $402mm of free cash flow.
Volume declines in pet food and value cereal from distribution losses and category weakness, which pricing and cost savings are meant to offset.

From the company's press release filed Aug 6, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.

Filings

Earnings releases 8

Aug 6, 20268-K for Aug 6, 2026: Results · Press release
May 7, 20268-K for May 5, 2026: Results; Director or officer change; Regulation FD; Other event · Press release · Presentation or supplement
Feb 5, 20268-K for Feb 3, 2026: Results; Director or officer change; Other event · Press release
Nov 20, 20258-K for Nov 18, 2025: Results; Director or officer change · Press release
Aug 7, 20258-K for Aug 5, 2025: Results; Director or officer change; Regulation FD · Press release · Presentation or supplement
May 8, 20258-K for May 8, 2025: Results · Press release
Feb 6, 20258-K for Feb 4, 2025: Results; Other event · Press release
Nov 14, 20248-K for Nov 12, 2024: Results; Director or officer change · Press release

Annual reports (10-K) 4

Quarterly reports (10-Q) 12

Current reports (8-K) 20

Oct 16, 20268-K for Oct 13, 2026: Director or officer change
Mar 13, 20268-K for Mar 13, 2026: New debt
Mar 4, 20268-K for Mar 4, 2026: Other event
Mar 4, 20268-K for Mar 4, 2026: Other event
Feb 5, 20268-K for Feb 5, 2026: Director or officer change; Regulation FD
Feb 4, 20268-K for Jan 29, 2026: Bylaw change; Shareholder vote
Dec 19, 20258-K for Dec 15, 2025: New debt; Other event
Dec 2, 20258-K for Dec 2, 2025: Other event
Dec 1, 20258-K for Dec 1, 2025: Other event
Dec 1, 20258-K for Dec 1, 2025: Regulation FD; Other event
Nov 26, 20258-K for Nov 25, 2025: Other event
Nov 21, 20258-K for Nov 18, 2025: Director or officer change
Oct 20, 20258-K for Oct 16, 2025: Bylaw change
Aug 29, 20258-K for Aug 27, 2025: Regulation FD; Other event
Jul 1, 20258-K for Jul 1, 2025: Other event
Jun 9, 20258-K for Jun 3, 2025: Material agreement
Jun 3, 20258-K for Jun 3, 2025: Regulation FD
Apr 11, 20258-K for Apr 9, 2025: Director or officer change
Apr 9, 20258-K for Mar 26, 2025: Restructuring
Apr 2, 20258-K for Mar 27, 2025: Director or officer change

Proxy statements 3

Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.

Coming up

Nov 20, 2026Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-09-30. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
Aug 15, 2027Maturity. 2.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027: $575mm outstanding comes due.
Mar 1, 2028Maturity. Municipal bond (Chaska, Minnesota industrial revenue bonds): $2mm outstanding comes due.

Recent 8-K filings

Oct 16, 2026Director or officer change
Aug 6, 2026Reported results