QXO Building Products (QXO)

Next 12 Months: Starting Case

$ in millions	Last 12 Months	Next Quarter (3Q26E)	vs. 3Q25A	Next 12 Months	Change
Revenue	$9,899	$4,895	79.4%	$17,455	76.3%
Adj. EBITDA	$27	$155	45.5%	$156	467.9%
Free Cash Flow	$141	$17	(90.8%)	($372)	(363.5%)
Net Debt, end of period	$3,255	$3,238		$3,627	11.4%
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	118.8x	42.7x		23.3x	-95.5x
Total Liquidity, end of period	$4,704	$4,721		$4,332	(7.9%)

The credit over the next year

QXO is now a building products distributor and installer with roughly $17 billion to $18 billion of annual sales after buying Beacon (roofing), Kodiak (lumber and building materials) and TopBuild (insulation), funded with new debt plus common and preferred equity, so the next year turns on whether earnings grow into that debt. The swing factors are roofing volume and price (Roofing and Waterproofing pricing went from down 1.1% in April 2026 to up 4.1% in September, and daily sales rose 9.1% in October), gross margin from combined purchasing and private label, and whether integration and technology spending let operating costs fall back toward 16% of sales after the first quarter of 2026 left adjusted EBITDA near zero. New housing starts drive Kodiak and TopBuild, roughly 40% of sales, and are the main downside risk.

Leverage falls from 118.8x to 23.3x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
The company burns $372mm of cash over the next year on the starting case, so liquidity has to fund it.
Net debt grows from $3.26bn to $3.63bn.
Liquidity a year out is $4.33bn, against $4.70bn today.

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure

Cap Structure	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	Yield	Lev. Through	View
Unrestricted Cash	$2,774.0
Senior Secured Notes due 2031	1,484.0	100.0%	N/a	54.2x	Neutral
6.50% Senior Secured Notes due 2032	2,232.0	100.0%	N/a	135.6x	Neutral
Senior Secured Notes due 2034	1,484.0	100.0%	N/a	189.8x	Neutral
Line Of Credit	11.0	100.0%	N/a	190.2x	Neutral
Total Debt	$6,029.0			220.0x
Net Debt	$3,255.0			118.8x

Last Twelve Months

Revenue	$9,899
Implied Costs	(9,871)
Adj. EBITDA	$27
(-) Interest Expense	(221)
(-) Capex	(112)
Memo: FCF	$141
Total Liquidity	$4,704.0

Next 12 months, starting case▲ Revenue $9.90bn → $17.45bn▲ Adj. EBITDA $27mm → $156mm▼ Free cash flow $141mm → -$372mm▼ Net leverage 118.8x → 23.3x▼ Liquidity $4.70bn → $4.33bn

QXO Building Products

			6/30/26				Face Value / Adj. EBITDA
Cap Structure	Coupon	Maturity	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	YTM	View	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	2Q27E LTM	2Q28E LTM
Unrestricted Cash			$2,774.0
Undrawn Revolver ($2,000mm facility)			1,930.0
Total Liquidity			$4,704.0

Senior Secured Notes due 2031	N/a	2031	1,484.0	100.0%	N/a	Neutral
6.50% Senior Secured Notes due 2032	6.50%	2032	2,232.0	100.0%	N/a	Neutral
Senior Secured Notes due 2034	N/a	2034	1,484.0	100.0%	N/a	Neutral
Line Of Credit	N/a	N/a	11.0	100.0%	N/a	Neutral
Total Secured Debt			$5,211.0				9,372.3x	28,631.9x	NA	NA	48.1x	190.2x	33.5x	33.5x
Net Secured Debt			$2,437.0				4,061.7x	12,185.0x	NA	NA	22.5x	88.9x	15.7x	15.7x

Other debt, discounts and issuance costs	N/a	N/a	818.0
Total Debt			$6,029.0				10,843.5x	33,126.4x	NA	NA	55.6x	220.0x	38.7x	38.7x
Net Debt			$3,255.0				5,854.3x	17,884.6x	NA	NA	30.0x	118.8x	23.3x	25.7x
				Adj. EBITDA			$1	--	--	($36)	$108	$27	$156	$156

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	2Q27E LTM	2Q28E LTM
Revenue	$42	$45	$55	$57	$6,842	$9,899	$17,455	$17,455
Y/Y Growth		7.9%	21.1%	4.4%	11925.0%		76.3%	0.0%
(-) Cost of Revenue	(25)	(27)	(33)	(34)	(5,270)	(7,521)	(13,272)	(13,272)
Gross Profit	$17	$18	$22	$23	$1,573	$2,378	$4,183	$4,183
Gross Margin	41.2%	40.0%	39.6%	40.6%	23.0%	24.0%	24.0%	24.0%
(-) SG&A	--	--	(22)	(93)	(1,395)	(2,040)	(3,222)	(3,222)
(+/-) Other Operating Costs, net of D&A	(17)	(18)	--	(1)	(315)	(492)	(933)	(933)
EBITDA	--	--	--	($71)	($137)	($153)	$28	$28
(+) Add-backs: stock comp, restructuring, impairments	1	--	--	34	245	181	128	128
Adj. EBITDA	$1	--	--	($36)	$108	$27	$156	$156
Margin	1.4%	0.4%	(0.7%)	(64.0%)	1.6%	0.3%	0.9%	0.9%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	(101)	(53)	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$1	--	--	($36)	$8	($26)	$156	$156
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	--	--	--	--	(138)	(221)	(322)	(322)
(-) Cash Taxes	--	--	--	--	(38)	(8)	(8)	(8)
(-) Capex	--	--	--	--	(78)	(112)	(197)	(197)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	--	2	1	121	430	508	--	--
Memo: FCF	--	$2	$1	$85	$183	$141	($372)	($372)
% of Debt	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	3.0%	2.3%	(6.2%)	(6.2%)

Liquidity

Unrestricted Cash	$2,774.0
Undrawn Revolver	1,930.0
Total Liquidity	$4,704.0
(-) Debt due through 2028	-0.0
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months	141.2
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow	$4,845.2

Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.

The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	2Q27E LTM	2Q28E LTM
Revenue	$42	$45	$55	$57	$6,842	$9,899	$17,455	$17,455
Y/Y Growth		7.9%	21.1%	4.4%	11925.0%		76.3%	0.0%
(-) Cost of Revenue	(25)	(27)	(33)	(34)	(5,270)	(7,521)	(13,272)	(13,272)
Gross Profit	$17	$18	$22	$23	$1,573	$2,378	$4,183	$4,183
Gross Margin	41.2%	40.0%	39.6%	40.6%	23.0%	24.0%	24.0%	24.0%
(-) SG&A	--	--	(22)	(93)	(1,395)	(2,040)	(3,222)	(3,222)
(+/-) Other Operating Costs, net of D&A	(17)	(18)	--	(1)	(315)	(492)	(933)	(933)
EBITDA	--	--	--	($71)	($137)	($153)	$28	$28
(+) Add-backs: stock comp, restructuring, impairments	1	--	--	34	245	181	128	128
Adj. EBITDA	$1	--	--	($36)	$108	$27	$156	$156
Margin	1.4%	0.4%	(0.7%)	(64.0%)	1.6%	0.3%	0.9%	0.9%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	(101)	(53)	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$1	--	--	($36)	$8	($26)	$156	$156
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	--	--	--	--	(138)	(221)	(322)	(322)
(-) Cash Taxes	--	--	--	--	(38)	(8)	(8)	(8)
(-) Capex	--	--	--	--	(78)	(112)	(197)	(197)
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	--	2	1	121	430	508	--	--
Memo: FCF	--	$2	$1	$85	$183	$141	($372)	($372)
% of Debt	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	3.0%	2.3%	(6.2%)	(6.2%)

Key Drivers

Driver	3Q25A	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26E	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	Sensitivity	Next 12m impact ($mm)
Residential roofing product sales $ millions per quarter	1,352	1,026	799	1,266	1,352	1,119	799	1,266	1,352	1,119	799	1,266	$1.0mm on revenue	93
Non-residential roofing product sales $ millions per quarter	734	614	464	736	734	670	464	736	734	670	464	736	$1.0mm on revenue	56
Complementary building products sales (includes Kodiak from Q2 2026) $ millions per quarter	629	538	453	1,229	2,795	2,483	2,398	2,579	2,795	2,483	2,398	2,579	$1.0mm on revenue	7,407
Adjusted gross margin % of net sales	25.2	24.2	23.7	24.7	25.2	24.2	23.7	24.7	25.2	24.2	23.7	24.7	$-44.0mm on cost of revenue	--
Adjusted operating costs (SG&A before one time items) % of net sales	14.1	17.3	23.6	16.4	13.8	15.1	17.4	15.4	13.8	15.1	17.4	15.4	$44.0mm on SG&A	(427)

QXO is now a building products distributor and installer with roughly $17 billion to $18 billion of annual sales after buying Beacon (roofing), Kodiak (lumber and building materials) and TopBuild (insulation), funded with new debt plus common and preferred equity, so the next year turns on whether earnings grow into that debt. The swing factors are roofing volume and price (Roofing and Waterproofing pricing went from down 1.1% in April 2026 to up 4.1% in September, and daily sales rose 9.1% in October), gross margin from combined purchasing and private label, and whether integration and technology spending let operating costs fall back toward 16% of sales after the first quarter of 2026 left adjusted EBITDA near zero. New housing starts drive Kodiak and TopBuild, roughly 40% of sales, and are the main downside risk.

Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case

$ in millions	3Q25A	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26E	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E
Revenue	$2,728	$2,194	$1,730	$3,246	$4,895	$4,288	$3,675	$4,596	$4,895	$4,288	$3,675	$4,596
Y/Y Growth	20726.7%	14725.0%	12716.3%	70.3%	79.4%	95.4%	112.4%	41.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Adj. EBITDA	$106	$18	($148)	$51	$155	$75	($148)	$74	$155	$75	($148)	$74
Margin	3.9%	0.8%	(8.6%)	1.6%	3.2%	1.7%	(4.0%)	1.6%	3.2%	1.7%	(4.0%)	1.6%
Free Cash Flow	$183	$158	$48	($248)	$17	($57)	($272)	($60)	$17	($57)	($272)	($60)
Cash, end of period	2,307	2,362	3,046	2,774	2,791	2,734	2,462	2,402	2,419	2,362	2,090	2,030
Total Debt, end of period	3,053	3,057	3,059	6,029	6,029	6,029	6,029	6,029	6,029	6,029	6,029	6,029
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	19.3x	10.0x	NA	118.8x	42.7x	24.9x	26.9x	23.3x	23.2x	23.6x	25.3x	25.7x

Revenue is built from one revenue line, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.

Earnings call: Q3 2026 · Nov 9, 2026

Slides Transcript Investor relations site

QXO pre-released a stronger Q3, with sales of about $4.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $557 million, and reaffirmed its 2030 EBITDA goal.

Takeaways

Q3 2026 preliminary net sales were about $4.90 billion, up 79% year on year, mostly from the Kodiak (April 1) and TopBuild (July 1) acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA was about $557 million, up 85%, for a margin of about 11.4% versus about 11.0% a year earlier. GAAP net loss was about $123 million.
The trend improved through the quarter. Management said September was much stronger than expected. Company pricing moved from minus 1.7% in April to plus 2.3% in September, and roofing gross margin turned up year on year in Q3.
October daily sales rose 5.4% year on year companywide and 9.1% in roofing and waterproofing, which points to a firmer start to Q4.
Management says there are no debt maturities before 2031, the structure is covenant-lite, liquidity is over $2 billion, and nearly two-thirds of debt is fixed rate.
TopBuild was funded in mid-2026 with $3.0 billion of 2031 and 2034 senior unsecured notes, a $3.0 billion incremental term loan due 2033, Series C convertible preferred and cash. TopBuild's 2032 and 2034 notes were tendered for.
Stated priority is to use free cash flow to cut net debt and delever, with no near-term equity issuance planned. Management also left room to sell non-core assets. The CEO is starting a separate venture but says he remains fully committed to QXO.

Debt and capital

No debt maturities before 2031, covenant-lite terms, over $2 billion of available liquidity, and nearly two-thirds of debt at fixed rates, per the November 9 call.
June 17, 2026: QXO Building Products, Inc. issued $1.5 billion of 6.500% senior notes due July 2031 and $1.5 billion of 6.875% senior notes due July 2034. They became unsecured guaranteed obligations once TopBuild closed.
July 1, 2026: a $3.0 billion incremental senior secured term loan due July 1, 2033 was added under the April 2025 term loan agreement, along with 100,000 shares of Series C convertible perpetual preferred, to fund TopBuild.
Capital allocation plan from the July Investor Q&A: free cash flow goes first to net debt reduction and deleveraging, then tuck-in M&A. No near-term equity issuance is planned, and non-core assets could be sold if worth more outside QXO.

Guidance

No formal quarterly or annual guidance was given on the call.
The long-term target was held: grow adjusted EBITDA from about $1.75 billion (current consensus) to $4 billion by 2030 before acquisitions. That figure assumes free cash flow goes to debt paydown.
Management says tuck-in deals funded with internal cash could add up to $1.5 billion more, for about $5.5 billion of EBITDA by 2030. The revenue goal of $50 billion within the decade was reaffirmed.
Other targets: grow TRI-BUILT private label sales from $943 million (trailing twelve months) to over $2 billion in three years, and move most revenue onto the new technology platform within a year.

What analysts asked

What QXO has changed over the past 18 months across people, sales, pricing, procurement and technology.
The building blocks of the bridge from about $1.75 billion to $4 billion of EBITDA by 2030.
How the CEO will split time between QXO and his new venture, and his commitment to QXO.
The new venture's strategy, industry, M&A approach, funding needs, leadership team and timing.

Tone: Confident and promotional, with management stressing better pricing and sales momentum while much of the Q&A turned to the CEO's new venture rather than QXO credit metrics.

Q2 2026Slides
Q1 2026Slides
Q4 2025Slides

Summary written with AI from Company-filed transcript of the November 9, 2026 conference call (8-K Exhibit 99.1), plus the Q3 2026 preliminary results release and the July 2026 Investor Q&A. Full Q3 results are due November 12, 2026.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.

Last quarter: Third quarter 2026

QXO pre-announced third quarter sales of $4.9bn and Adjusted EBITDA of $557mm, both lifted by the Kodiak and TopBuild deals.

Results

These are preliminary, unaudited figures released on November 9, 2026; the company said full third quarter results would follow on November 12, 2026.
Net sales were about $4,895mm, up 79% from $2,728mm a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA was about $557mm, up 85% from $301mm, and the Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 11.4% from 11.1%.
The GAAP net loss was about $123mm, compared with a loss of $139mm a year earlier.
Net interest expense rose to $163mm from $37mm, and amortization rose to $288mm from $118mm.

Why

Most of the growth came from acquisitions: Kodiak is included from April 1, 2026 and TopBuild from July 1, 2026, and neither was in the prior-year quarter.
On the November 9 call, management said company-wide pricing rose 2.2% from a year earlier and organic revenue per day trends improved for a second straight quarter.
Management also said daily sales rose 5.4% in October, with the roofing and waterproofing business up 9.1%.
Add-backs stayed large: transaction costs of $40mm, transformation costs of $28mm, restructuring of $9mm and a $17mm inventory fair value charge tied to acquired inventory.

Balance sheet and guidance

The preliminary release gave no balance sheet, cash or cash flow figures for September 30, 2026.
On the November 9 call, management said there are no debt maturities before 2031, nearly two-thirds of debt is fixed rate, and available liquidity is over $2bn.
At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $6,029mm before the TopBuild close, with $3.0bn of new senior note proceeds held in escrow for that deal and $1,961mm of Series C preferred stock outstanding.

What to watch

The full third quarter release, due November 12, 2026, should show the post-TopBuild debt load, cash, and operating cash flow that the preliminary release left out.
Net interest expense of $163mm in the quarter against $557mm of Adjusted EBITDA; the first quarter is seasonally weak (Adjusted EBITDA was $1.2mm in the first quarter of 2026), so coverage will be tighter in the winter months.
Transaction, transformation and restructuring add-backs totaled $77mm this quarter; watch whether they fall as the Kodiak and TopBuild integrations progress.

From the company's press release filed Nov 9, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.

Filings

Earnings releases 8

Nov 9, 20268-K for Nov 9, 2026: Results
Aug 13, 20268-K for Aug 13, 2026: Results · Press release
May 12, 20268-K for May 12, 2026: Results · Press release
Feb 25, 20268-K for Feb 25, 2026: Results · Press release
Jan 15, 20268-K for Jan 15, 2026: Results; Other event · Press release · Presentation or supplement
Nov 6, 20258-K for Nov 6, 2025: Results · Press release
Oct 28, 20258-K for Oct 28, 2025: Results · Presentation or supplement
Aug 14, 20258-K for Aug 14, 2025: Results · Press release

Annual reports (10-K) 5

Quarterly reports (10-Q) 12

Current reports (8-K) 20

Nov 9, 20268-K for Nov 9, 2026: Regulation FD
Aug 24, 20268-K for Aug 21, 2026: Director or officer change; Other event
Jul 23, 20268-K for Jul 23, 2026: Other event
Jul 9, 20268-K for Jul 9, 2026: Regulation FD
Jul 1, 20268-K for Jul 1, 2026: Material agreement; Acquisition or disposal completed; New debt; Director or officer change; Bylaw change; Regulation FD; Other event
Jun 30, 20268-K for Jun 30, 2026: Other event
Jun 29, 20268-K for Jun 29, 2026: Shareholder vote; Regulation FD
Jun 22, 20268-K for Jun 22, 2026: Other event
Jun 17, 20268-K for Jun 17, 2026: Material agreement; New debt; Other event
Jun 12, 20268-K for Jun 12, 2026: Other event
Jun 4, 20268-K for Jun 4, 2026: Other event
Jun 4, 20268-K for Jun 3, 2026: Regulation FD
Jun 2, 20268-K for Jun 2, 2026: Regulation FD
May 29, 20268-K for May 29, 2026: Other event
May 18, 20268-K for May 15, 2026: Other event
May 11, 20268-K for May 11, 2026: Other event
May 8, 20268-K for May 5, 2026: Shareholder vote
Apr 29, 20268-K for Apr 29, 2026: Other event
Apr 20, 20268-K for Apr 18, 2026: Material agreement; Other event
Apr 1, 20268-K for Apr 1, 2026: Acquisition or disposal completed; Bylaw change; Regulation FD

Proxy statements 3

Other filings 8

Jul 23, 2026424B7
May 29, 2026424B3
May 29, 2026S-4/A
May 18, 2026S-4
Apr 29, 2026424B7
Jan 16, 2026424B5
Jan 16, 2026424B5
Jun 25, 2025424B5

Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.

Coming up

No dated maturity inside two years, and no results date could be estimated.

Recent 8-K filings

Nov 9, 2026Regulation FD disclosure
Nov 9, 2026Reported results
Aug 24, 2026Director or officer change; Other event
Aug 13, 2026Reported results
Jul 23, 2026Other event
Jul 9, 2026Regulation FD disclosure
Jul 1, 2026Entered into a material agreement; Completed an acquisition or disposal; Took on new debt or an obligation; Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure; Other event
Jun 30, 2026Other event