Transocean is guiding fourth quarter 2026 contract drilling revenue of $915 to $965 million and preliminary 2027 revenue of $3.85 to $4.0 billion, roughly flat with the $3.9 to $3.95 billion guided for 2026, even though ultra-deepwater utilization has already slid from 82% to 68% this year as drillships came off contract. The $8.0 billion backlog and roughly 95% contract coverage for 2027 protect cash flow, so the next year turns on whether the uncommitted drillships find work at dayrates near the recent $423,000 average, whether revenue efficiency holds at the 96.5% guide, and how fast the Valaris combination, expected to close December 1, 2026, delivers its $200 million of synergies while debt keeps falling from $4.98 billion.
Leverage falls from 3.1x to 2.8x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
Free cash flow of $711mm is projected over the next year, enough to cover the $74mm of debt due in that time.
Net debt shrinks from $4.52bn to $3.81bn; maturing debt is assumed refinanced unless changed in the model.
Liquidity a year out is $1.62bn, against $912mm today.
Due inside a year: 7.45% Notes due April 2027 ($52mm); 8.00% Debentures due April 2027 ($22mm).
Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.
Capital Structure
Cap Structure
Amt Out.
Mkt Price
Yield
Lev. Through
View
Unrestricted Cash
$499.0
8.00% Senior Secured Notes due September 2028 (Aquila Notes)
165.0
100.0%
8.00%
0.1x
Bullish
8.75% Senior Secured Notes due February 2030
763.0
104.1%*
4.79%
0.6x
Bullish
4.50% Shipyard Loans due September 2027
111.0
100.0%
N/a
0.7x
Bullish
7.45% Notes due April 2027
52.0
100.0%
7.45%
0.8x
Bullish
8.00% Debentures due April 2027
22.0
100.0%
8.00%
0.8x
Bullish
7.00% Notes due June 2028
209.0
100.0%
7.00%
0.9x
Bullish
8.25% Senior Notes due May 2029
900.0
103.9%*
4.48%
1.5x
Bullish
4.625% Senior Guaranteed Exchangeable Bonds due September 2029
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow
$1,264.0
Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.
The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.
Ultra-deepwater average daily revenue$ thousands per operating day
466.0
480.7
455.5
442.1
442.1
442.1
442.1
442.1
442.1
442.1
442.1
442.1
$1.2mm on revenue
(94)
Ultra-deepwater rig utilization% of rig calendar days
82.1
82.1
72.6
67.6
69.5
74.0
74.5
75.0
75.4
75.4
75.4
75.4
$8.1mm on revenue
(93)
Harsh environment average daily revenue$ thousands per operating day
449.8
463.8
510.0
504.3
504.3
504.3
504.3
504.3
504.3
504.3
504.3
504.3
$0.6mm on revenue
54
Harsh environment rig utilization% of rig calendar days
96.6
100.0
94.2
95.1
95.1
95.1
95.1
95.1
95.1
95.1
95.1
95.1
$3.3mm on revenue
(18)
Fleet revenue efficiency% of maximum contract revenue
96.2
97.3
97.0
96.8
96.2
97.3
97.0
96.8
96.2
97.3
97.0
96.8
$8.9mm on revenue
--
Transocean is guiding fourth quarter 2026 contract drilling revenue of $915 to $965 million and preliminary 2027 revenue of $3.85 to $4.0 billion, roughly flat with the $3.9 to $3.95 billion guided for 2026, even though ultra-deepwater utilization has already slid from 82% to 68% this year as drillships came off contract. The $8.0 billion backlog and roughly 95% contract coverage for 2027 protect cash flow, so the next year turns on whether the uncommitted drillships find work at dayrates near the recent $423,000 average, whether revenue efficiency holds at the 96.5% guide, and how fast the Valaris combination, expected to close December 1, 2026, delivers its $200 million of synergies while debt keeps falling from $4.98 billion.
Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case
$ in millions
4Q25A
1Q26A
2Q26A
3Q26A
4Q26E
1Q27E
2Q27E
3Q27E
4Q27E
1Q28E
2Q28E
3Q28E
Revenue
$1,043
$1,081
$966
$937
$939
$976
$964
$997
$987
$987
$972
$1,000
Y/Y Growth
9.6%
19.3%
(2.2%)
(8.9%)
(9.9%)
(9.7%)
(0.2%)
6.4%
5.1%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
Adj. EBITDA
$396
$438
$307
$301
$374
$397
$290
$307
$385
$400
$291
$308
Margin
38.0%
40.5%
31.8%
32.1%
39.8%
40.7%
30.0%
30.8%
39.0%
40.5%
29.9%
30.8%
Free Cash Flow
$321
$136
$212
$131
$211
$233
$126
$142
$220
$235
$127
$143
Cash, end of period
620
330
509
499
710
942
1,068
1,210
1,431
1,666
1,793
1,935
Total Debt, end of period
5,657
5,274
5,119
5,018
5,018
5,018
5,018
5,018
5,018
5,018
5,018
5,018
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA
3.6x
3.1x
3.0x
3.1x
3.0x
3.0x
2.9x
2.8x
2.6x
2.4x
2.3x
2.2x
Revenue is built from Ultra Deepwater Floaters, Harsh Environment Floaters, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.
Steady Q3 with $131 million of free cash flow, more early debt paydown, a bigger and longer revolver lined up, and the Valaris merger set to close about December 1.
Takeaways
Contract drilling revenue fell to $937 million from $966 million in Q2, on lower rig utilization as expected. Revenue efficiency stayed high at 96.8%.
Adjusted EBITDA was flat at $313 million, and the margin rose to 33.4% from 32.2% as operating costs fell. It is still well below the 40.7% margin of Q1.
Free cash flow was $131 million, down from $212 million in Q2. Over nine months, free cash flow totals about $479 million.
Debt principal fell to $4,975 million at September 30 from $5,107 million in June. Cash was $499 million plus $285 million restricted. Total liquidity was about $1.3 billion including the undrawn $510 million revolver.
Backlog grew to about $8.0 billion after $2.0 billion of new awards at about $423,000 a day. The company says 2027 is now about 95% contracted, which supports cash flow visibility.
All regulatory approvals for the all-stock Valaris deal are in hand. Closing is expected about December 1, with $200 million of targeted annual cost savings.
Debt and capital
Debt principal was $4,975 million at September 30, 2026, down $1,322 million from a year earlier. About $460 million is due within one year.
Net debt is roughly $4.2 billion after cash and restricted cash. Against about $1.45 billion of trailing adjusted EBITDA, that is near 2.9 times (our math, not a company figure).
The 8.00% Aquila secured notes due 2028 were repaid in full on October 1, 2026 ($165 million principal plus a call premium), saving about $22 million of interest to maturity.
The 8.375% Titan secured notes due 2028 ($358 million) were repaid early in March 2026.
An amended secured revolver signed October 15 will rise to $750 million from $510 million and extend maturity to October 2031 from June 2028. It only takes effect once the Valaris deal closes, and commitments lapse if that has not happened by May 9, 2027.
The 4.625% exchangeable bonds due 2029 can be exchanged at about $3.44 a share, or about 75 million shares. Their changing value adds non-cash swings to interest expense each quarter.
Management says debt reduction stays a top priority. No buybacks or dividends were announced.
Guidance
FY26 contract drilling revenue of $3,900 to $3,950 million, roughly held, with the top end trimmed from $3,975 million.
FY26 operating and maintenance expense of $2,350 to $2,400 million, low end raised from $2,325 million. G&A raised to $185 to $190 million from $170 to $180 million.
FY26 capex trimmed to $145 million from $150 million. FY26 interest expense guided at $500 million, up from $475 million.
Q4 26 revenue guided at $915 to $965 million and year-end liquidity at $1,300 to $1,500 million, after scheduled debt amortization.
First look at FY27 (preliminary): revenue $3,850 to $4,000 million, O&M $2,375 to $2,500 million, interest expense $415 million, capex $130 to $140 million, year-end liquidity about $1,700 million.
Guidance appears to be for Transocean on its own; the release does not say it includes Valaris.
Tone: Confident and focused on deleveraging, with the release built around cash flow, backlog and getting the Valaris deal closed.
Summary written with AI from Press release, Fleet Status Report, Q3 2026 10-Q and October 2026 8-K filings. Transocean does not publish a call transcript or prepared remarks, and it posts no earnings slide deck, so the call itself was not used.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.
Last quarter: Third quarter 2026
Revenue fell 9% from a year earlier on lower utilization, but Transocean cut debt by $132mm and lifted backlog to about $8.0bn.
Results
Contract drilling revenue was $937mm, down from $966mm in the second quarter and $1,028mm a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA was $313mm (33.4% margin), flat on the prior quarter and down from $397mm a year earlier.
Operating cash flow was $174mm and capex $43mm, giving free cash flow of $131mm versus $235mm a year earlier.
Net income was $26mm, helped by a $101mm income tax benefit; adjusted net income was $1mm.
Revenue efficiency was 96.8%, and about $2.0bn of backlog was added at an average dayrate near $423,000.
Why
The company tied the sequential revenue drop mainly to an expected fall in rig utilization; ultra-deepwater utilization fell to 67.6% from 72.6%.
Adjusted EBITDA excludes a $101mm benefit plan termination settlement cost and $10mm of acquisition and restructuring costs.
Harsh environment rigs held up, with revenue of $347mm and utilization of 95.1%.
Balance sheet and guidance
Debt principal fell to $4,975mm from $5,107mm in June, mostly from scheduled amortization. The last $165mm of Deepwater Aquila notes was redeemed early on October 1, after quarter end; the company counts about $200mm of Aquila debt retired in total.
Cash was $499mm plus $285mm of restricted cash; net debt was $4,191mm, or 2.9x trailing adjusted EBITDA of $1,450mm as reported.
Total liquidity was about $1.3bn, including the undrawn $510mm revolving credit facility.
Full-year 2026 revenue guidance is $3,900mm to $3,950mm, with the top end trimmed from $3,975mm in August.
Fourth quarter revenue guidance is $915mm to $965mm.
Full-year 2026 capex guidance moved to $145mm from $150mm, and year-end liquidity is guided to about $1,300mm.
Preliminary 2027 guidance calls for revenue of $3,850mm to $4,000mm, capex of $130mm to $140mm and year-end liquidity of $1,500mm to $1,700mm.
What to watch
The Valaris combination is expected to close on December 1; watch the combined debt structure and progress on the $200mm of targeted annual synergies.
Ultra-deepwater utilization fell to 67.6%; watch whether new backlog and the claimed 95% 2027 coverage turn into higher utilization.
Debt due within one year was $467mm of principal ($460mm carrying amount); watch how scheduled amortization tracks the guided year-end liquidity of about $1.3bn.
From the company's press release filed Nov 2, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.
Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.
Coming up
Feb 22, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.
Apr 15, 2027Maturity. 7.45% Notes due April 2027: $52mm outstanding comes due.
Apr 15, 2027Maturity. 8.00% Debentures due April 2027: $22mm outstanding comes due.
Jun 1, 2028Maturity. 7.00% Notes due June 2028: $209mm outstanding comes due.
Sep 30, 2028Maturity. 8.00% Senior Secured Notes due September 2028 (Aquila Notes): $165mm outstanding comes due.