SM Energy (SM) | Credit Investor

Next 12 Months: Starting Case

$ in millions	Last 12 Months	Next Quarter (4Q26E)	vs. 4Q25A	Next 12 Months	Change
Revenue	$6,854	$2,291	224.9%	$9,441	37.7%
Adj. EBITDA	$1,797	$1,132	495.7%	$3,325	85.1%
Free Cash Flow	$3,317	$1,126	149.1%	$3,301	(0.5%)
Net Debt, end of period	($442)	($1,568)		($3,743)	(746.9%)
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	-0.2x	-0.6x		-1.1x	-0.9x
Total Liquidity, end of period	$2,940	$4,066		$6,241	112.3%

The credit over the next year

SM Energy closed the Civitas merger on January 30, 2026, roughly doubling output to 433 MBoe/d in Q3 2026, so the credit now turns on oil price and oil volume across the Permian, Uinta, DJ and South Texas. With the WTI strip near $91 and only about half of fourth quarter oil hedged (swaps at $61, collars capped near $66), each $1 a barrel adds about $21 million of quarterly revenue and roughly $10 million after hedges, which is funding debt paydown after net debt fell to $6.0 billion. The other swing items are whether Uinta takeaway clears in early 2027 to lift oil toward 238 MBbl/d, how wide Waha and Rockies gas discounts stay, and whether lease operating expense, up to $7.02 per Boe in Q3 2026 on merger compliance work, settles back near the $6.60 to $6.80 guide.

Leverage falls from -0.2x to -1.1x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
Free cash flow of $3.30bn is projected over the next year, with no itemised debt due in that time.
Net debt shrinks from -$442mm to -$3.74bn.
Liquidity a year out is $6.24bn, against $2.94bn today.

Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.

Capital Structure

Cap Structure	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	Yield	Lev. Through	View
Unrestricted Cash	$442.0
Debt, current portion	0.0	100.0%	N/a	0.0x	Bullish
Debt, long-term	0.0	100.0%	N/a	0.0x	Bullish
Total Debt	$0.0			0.0x
Net Debt	($442.0)			-0.2x

Last Twelve Months

Revenue	$6,854
Implied Costs	(5,057)
Adj. EBITDA	$1,797
(-) Interest Expense	(332)
(-) Capex	--
Memo: FCF	$3,317
Total Liquidity	$2,940.0

Next 12 months, starting case▲ Revenue $6.85bn → $9.44bn▲ Adj. EBITDA $1.80bn → $3.33bn▶ Free cash flow $3.32bn → $3.30bn▼ Net leverage -0.2x → -1.1x▲ Liquidity $2.94bn → $6.24bn

SM Energy

			9/30/26				Face Value / Adj. EBITDA
Cap Structure	Coupon	Maturity	Amt Out.	Mkt Price	YTM	View	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Unrestricted Cash			$442.0
Undrawn Revolver ($2,500mm facility)			2,498.0
Total Liquidity			$2,940.0

Debt, current portion	N/a	N/a	0.0	100.0%	N/a	Bullish
Debt, long-term	N/a	N/a	0.0	100.0%	N/a	Bullish
Total Debt			$0.0				0.0x	0.0x	0.0x	0.0x	0.0x	0.0x	0.0x	0.0x
Net Debt			($442.0)				-1.9x	-0.3x	-0.4x	-0.4x	-0.4x	-0.2x	-1.1x	-2.1x
				Adj. EBITDA			$228	$1,598	$1,007	$1,101	$1,029	$1,797	$3,325	$3,329

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$2,623	$3,359	$2,374	$2,690	$3,154	$6,854	$9,441	$9,480
Y/Y Growth		28.0%	(29.3%)	13.3%	17.2%		37.7%	0.4%
Implied Costs	(2,395)	(1,760)	(1,367)	(1,589)	(2,125)	(5,057)	(6,116)	(6,151)
Adj. EBITDA	$228	$1,598	$1,007	$1,101	$1,029	$1,797	$3,325	$3,329
Margin	8.7%	47.6%	42.4%	40.9%	32.6%	26.2%	35.2%	35.1%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	--	(123)	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$228	$1,598	$1,007	$1,101	$1,029	$1,674	$3,325	$3,329
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(137)	(134)	(87)	(88)	(166)	(332)	--	--
(-) Cash Taxes	1	11	(9)	(27)	(4)	(12)	(24)	(24)
(-) Capex	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	1,068	212	663	797	1,152	1,987	--	--
Memo: FCF	$1,160	$1,686	$1,574	$1,783	$2,011	$3,317	$3,301	$3,305
% of Debt

Liquidity

Unrestricted Cash	$442.0
Undrawn Revolver	2,498.0
Total Liquidity	$2,940.0
(-) Debt due through 2028	-0.0
(+/-) Free cash flow, last twelve months	3,317.0
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow	$6,257.0

The latest filing does not itemise tranches in a form that ties to the balance sheet, so debt is shown as reported there.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.

The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.

Key Financials

	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025A	LTM	3Q27E LTM	3Q28E LTM
Revenue	$2,623	$3,359	$2,374	$2,690	$3,154	$6,854	$9,441	$9,480
Y/Y Growth		28.0%	(29.3%)	13.3%	17.2%		37.7%	0.4%
Implied Costs	(2,395)	(1,760)	(1,367)	(1,589)	(2,125)	(5,057)	(6,116)	(6,151)
Adj. EBITDA	$228	$1,598	$1,007	$1,101	$1,029	$1,797	$3,325	$3,329
Margin	8.7%	47.6%	42.4%	40.9%	32.6%	26.2%	35.2%	35.1%
(-) Restructuring and other cash add-backs	--	--	--	--	--	(123)	--	--
Cash EBITDA	$228	$1,598	$1,007	$1,101	$1,029	$1,674	$3,325	$3,329
(-) Interest Expense (Cash Only)	(137)	(134)	(87)	(88)	(166)	(332)	--	--
(-) Cash Taxes	1	11	(9)	(27)	(4)	(12)	(24)	(24)
(-) Capex	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
(+/-) Working Capital and Other	1,068	212	663	797	1,152	1,987	--	--
Memo: FCF	$1,160	$1,686	$1,574	$1,783	$2,011	$3,317	$3,301	$3,305
% of Debt

Key Drivers

Driver	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E	Sensitivity	Next 12m impact ($mm)
Realized oil price (before hedges) $ per Bbl	58.17	73.69	96.85	85.76	89.75	89.75	89.75	89.75	89.75	89.75	89.75	89.75	$21.2mm on revenue	944
Oil production MBbl per day	108.4	190.3	229.8	230.2	234.0	236.0	238.0	238.0	238.0	238.0	238.0	238.0	$6.5mm on revenue	1,217
Realized gas price (before hedges) $ per Mcf	1.81	1.72	0.17	2.48	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	$84.4mm on revenue	255
Realized NGL price (before hedges) $ per Bbl	20.67	21.58	24.69	29.40	33.35	33.35	33.35	33.35	33.35	33.35	33.35	33.35	$4.6mm on revenue	170
Lease operating expense per Boe $ per Boe	5.55	6.25	6.71	7.02	6.67	6.70	6.70	6.70	6.70	6.70	6.70	6.70	$39.8mm on cost of revenue	49

SM Energy closed the Civitas merger on January 30, 2026, roughly doubling output to 433 MBoe/d in Q3 2026, so the credit now turns on oil price and oil volume across the Permian, Uinta, DJ and South Texas. With the WTI strip near $91 and only about half of fourth quarter oil hedged (swaps at $61, collars capped near $66), each $1 a barrel adds about $21 million of quarterly revenue and roughly $10 million after hedges, which is funding debt paydown after net debt fell to $6.0 billion. The other swing items are whether Uinta takeaway clears in early 2027 to lift oil toward 238 MBbl/d, how wide Waha and Rockies gas discounts stay, and whether lease operating expense, up to $7.02 per Boe in Q3 2026 on merger compliance work, settles back near the $6.60 to $6.80 guide.

Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case

$ in millions	4Q25A	1Q26A	2Q26A	3Q26A	4Q26E	1Q27E	2Q27E	3Q27E	4Q27E	1Q28E	2Q28E	3Q28E
Revenue	$705	$1,479	$2,500	$2,170	$2,291	$2,220	$2,622	$2,308	$2,317	$2,233	$2,622	$2,308
Y/Y Growth	(17.3%)	75.0%	215.3%	167.2%	224.9%	50.1%	4.9%	6.4%	1.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
Adj. EBITDA	$190	($176)	$1,532	$251	$1,132	$199	$1,637	$357	$1,137	$197	$1,637	$357
Margin	27.0%	(11.9%)	61.3%	11.6%	49.4%	9.0%	62.4%	15.5%	49.1%	8.8%	62.4%	15.5%
Free Cash Flow	$452	$640	$1,103	$1,122	$1,126	$193	$1,631	$351	$1,131	$191	$1,631	$351
Cash, end of period	368	449	620	442	1,568	1,761	3,392	3,743	4,875	5,066	6,697	7,049
Total Debt, end of period	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	-0.4x	-0.8x	-0.3x	-0.2x	-0.6x	-0.6x	-1.1x	-1.1x	-1.5x	-1.5x	-2.0x	-2.1x

Revenue is built from one revenue line, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.

Earnings call: Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026) · Nov 4, 2026

Slides Webcast and audio replay Transcript Investor relations site

Cash flow funds a $417 million note redemption as net debt falls to $6.0 billion; oil guide trimmed 1% on Uinta takeaway limits.

Takeaways

Operating cash flow was $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDAX $1.3 billion. Adjusted free cash flow was $397 million after $747 million of capex before accruals.
Net debt fell to $6.0 billion from $7.4 billion at March 31, helped by the $950 million Galvan South Texas sale and free cash flow. Management says it is on track for low one-times leverage at mid-cycle prices by year-end 2026.
All $417 million of 6.625% notes due 2027 were redeemed at par. There are no senior note maturities until mid-2028.
Merger synergies actioned reached about $400 million, double the original $200 million target. Only $50 million was built into the 2026 budget, so the full run rate lands in 2027.
Oil output of 230 MBbl/d was about 2% below the guidance midpoint. Permian compliance downtime is fixed, but Uinta rail takeaway stays tight until a terminal expansion in Q1 2027.
Cash taxes are rising. Tax attributes are used up for 2026, so guidance rose to $100 to $120 million, and similar levels are possible in 2027 if oil stays high.

Debt and capital

Redeemed the $417 million 6.625% senior notes due 2027 at par during Q3.
No senior note maturities until mid-2028.
Net debt of $6.0 billion at September 30, 2026, down about $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion since Q1.
Target remains low one-times leverage at mid-cycle prices by year-end 2026, more than a year ahead of the original plan.
An 80/20 framework splits free cash flow between debt reduction and buybacks. Q3 buybacks were $81 million (2.3 million shares), $165 million year to date, plus a $0.22 quarterly dividend.
Divestiture goal of at least $1 billion within a year of closing is substantially met with the $950 million Galvan sale; more non-core sales remain under review.
Hedge targets lowered to about 30% of volumes from 50% as leverage falls.

Guidance

Full-year 2026 oil production cut about 1% to 220-222 MBbl/d.
Full-year 2026 total production narrowed to 420-422 MBoe/d, effectively held.
Full-year 2026 capex narrowed to about $2.75 billion, the midpoint of the prior range, despite service cost inflation.
Q4 2026: 435-445 MBoe/d total, 229-239 MBbl/d oil, capex about $610 million.
Full-year cash taxes raised to $100-120 million from roughly $50 million previously indicated at $85 oil.
Q4 LOE guided to $6.60-6.80 per Boe, below the Q3 level of $7.02.
2027 guidance due in February. Management called the second-half 2026 run rate of 435-440 MBoe/d and about 238 MBbl/d oil a fair baseline, with 2026 capex less one-time costs a good starting point.

What analysts asked

Uinta rail and terminal takeaway, and whether the expansion adds real capacity.
What the second-half 2026 run rate means for 2027 production and capex amid service cost inflation.
2026 and 2027 cash tax exposure after tax attributes were used up.
Drivers of stronger Delaware Basin and Uinta well results, and spacing changes.
Further cost savings beyond merger synergies, including DJ Basin local sand.
Hedging approach for 2027 given strip volatility.
LOE trend and whether Q3 levels are one-time.
Q4 basin production trends and Q1 seasonality.
Progress toward the $1 billion divestiture target.
Gas and NGL realization outlook and how much synergy shows in 2026 results.

Tone: Confident and balance-sheet focused, with the oil volume shortfall framed as temporary and deleveraging ahead of plan.

Q2 2026Slides · Webcast
Q1 2026Slides · Webcast
Q4 2025 / FY 2025Slides · Webcast

Summary written with AI from Company-published full transcript of the November 4, 2026 call (prepared remarks and Q&A), plus the Q3 2026 earnings release.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.

Last quarter: Third quarter 2026

SM Energy more than doubled revenue and EBITDAX after the Civitas merger, repaid $417mm of notes, and trimmed oil guidance.

Results

Oil, gas and NGL production revenue was $2,160mm, up from $811mm a year earlier, mainly because Civitas joined on January 30, 2026.
Adjusted EBITDAX was $1,341mm versus $588mm a year earlier and $1,406mm in the second quarter.
Adjusted free cash flow was $397mm on operating cash flow of $1,122mm and capital spending of $747mm before accrual changes.
Net income was $93mm, held down by a $477mm non-cash loss on the fair value of hedges; adjusted net income was $465mm.
Production averaged 433 MBoe/d, including 230 MBbl/d of oil, slightly below 440 MBoe/d in the second quarter.

Why

The merger roughly doubled volumes from 214 MBoe/d a year earlier, and realized oil prices rose to $85.76/Bbl from $63.83/Bbl before hedges.
Hedges cost $207mm in cash settlements in the quarter, cutting the realized price per Boe from $54.23 to $49.02.
Oil volumes lost about 2 MBbl/d to Permian downtime on acquired assets and about 4 MBbl/d to Uinta takeaway limits.
The company says it has reached about $400mm of run-rate merger synergies, above its revised $375mm target.

Balance sheet and guidance

All $417mm of 6.625% notes due 2027 were redeemed at par, leaving no maturities until mid-2028.
Senior notes principal was $6,456mm with nothing drawn on the revolver and $442mm of cash, for net debt of $6,014mm, down from $7.4bn at March 31, 2026.
Shareholder returns were $133mm in the quarter: $81mm of buybacks plus the $0.22 per share dividend.
Full-year 2026 capital spending is now about $2.75bn, the midpoint of the prior $2.65bn to $2.85bn range, so held rather than raised or cut.
Full-year oil guidance was cut about 1% to 220 to 222 MBbl/d from 223 to 225 MBbl/d; total production was narrowed to 420 to 422 MBoe/d from 418 to 423 MBoe/d.
Fourth quarter guidance is 435 to 445 MBoe/d, including 229 to 239 MBbl/d of oil, on about $610mm of capital.
Full-year cash tax guidance was updated to $100mm to $120mm.
The company did not give revenue, EBITDAX or free cash flow guidance; it targets low one-times leverage at mid-cycle prices by year-end 2026.

What to watch

Whether Uinta takeaway constraints, which cost about 4 MBbl/d of oil, are resolved in early 2027 as the company expects.
Hedge cash costs: settlements cost $207mm this quarter and derivative liabilities reached $565mm at quarter end, so high oil prices keep draining cash.
Progress toward the stated goal of low one-times leverage by year-end 2026 from $6,014mm of net debt, given fourth quarter capital of about $610mm.

From the company's press release filed Nov 3, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.

Filings

Earnings releases 8

Nov 3, 20268-K for Nov 3, 2026: Results · Press release
Oct 14, 20268-K for Oct 14, 2026: Results
Aug 5, 20268-K for Aug 5, 2026: Results; Regulation FD · Press release · Presentation or supplement
Jul 16, 20268-K for Jul 16, 2026: Results
May 6, 20268-K for May 6, 2026: Results · Press release
Apr 17, 20268-K for Apr 17, 2026: Results
Feb 25, 20268-K for Feb 25, 2026: Results; Other event · Press release · Presentation or supplement
Nov 3, 20258-K for Nov 3, 2025: Results · Press release

Annual reports (10-K) 5

Quarterly reports (10-Q) 12

Current reports (8-K) 20

Nov 9, 20268-K for Nov 9, 2026: Director or officer change
Sep 4, 20268-K for Sep 4, 2026: Agreement terminated
Jun 1, 20268-K for Jun 1, 2026: Agreement terminated
May 22, 20268-K for May 21, 2026: Director or officer change; Shareholder vote
May 12, 20268-K for May 11, 2026: Agreement terminated
Apr 30, 20268-K for Apr 30, 2026: Acquisition or disposal completed; Regulation FD
Apr 2, 20268-K for Apr 2, 2026: Regulation FD
Mar 18, 20268-K for Mar 18, 2026: Regulation FD
Mar 9, 20268-K for Mar 9, 2026: Material agreement; New debt
Mar 5, 20268-K for Mar 4, 2026: Other event
Mar 4, 20268-K for Mar 4, 2026: Other event
Feb 18, 20268-K for Feb 17, 2026: Material agreement; Regulation FD
Feb 9, 20268-K for Feb 4, 2026: Auditor change
Jan 30, 20268-K for Jan 30, 2026: Material agreement; Acquisition or disposal completed; New debt; Bylaw change; Regulation FD
Jan 27, 20268-K for Jan 27, 2026: Shareholder vote; Regulation FD
Jan 26, 20268-K for Jan 20, 2026: Director or officer change
Jan 20, 20268-K for Jan 20, 2026: Other event
Dec 19, 20258-K for Dec 15, 2025: Director or officer change; Regulation FD
Nov 17, 20258-K for Nov 17, 2025: Regulation FD
Nov 3, 20258-K for Nov 2, 2025: Material agreement

Proxy statements 3

Other filings 8

Dec 22, 2025424B3
Dec 17, 2025S-4/A
Dec 5, 2025S-4
Nov 4, 202510-Q/A for Sep 30, 2025
Jun 10, 2021424B5
Jun 9, 2021424B5
Aug 7, 2018424B5
Aug 6, 2018424B5

Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.

Rating actions

Jan 30, 2026Two agencies (not named by the company): Upgraded after the Civitas merger closed (new ratings not stated in filings). The company says two major agencies raised its ratings after the merger closed, citing larger scale, diversification and steady positive free cash flow. · source
Nov 17, 2025S&P: Placed on CreditWatch Positive (as reported by the company; rating level not stated). The pending all-stock combination with Civitas was expected to strengthen scale and the credit profile. · source
Nov 17, 2025Fitch: Placed on Rating Watch Positive (as reported by the company; rating level not stated). The pending Civitas merger was expected to improve size, free cash flow and capacity to cut debt. · source

Coming up

Feb 25, 2027Results. Full-year results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.

Recent 8-K filings

Nov 9, 2026Director or officer change
Nov 3, 2026Reported results
Oct 14, 2026Reported results
Sep 4, 2026Terminated a material agreement
Aug 5, 2026Reported results; Regulation FD disclosure
Jul 16, 2026Reported results