TransDigm's credit rides on how fast its three end markets grow into a fiscal 2027 guide of $11.95bn to $12.15bn of sales and $6.2bn to $6.35bn of EBITDA As Defined, which carries about $2.26bn of net interest. Commercial aftermarket is the swing factor because it is the highest-margin channel and grew 28% to 31% reported in the last two quarters with acquisitions, while the guide assumes only high single digits; defense, now the largest channel at 43% of sales, and a still-recovering Boeing and Airbus build rate set the rest. The EBITDA As Defined margin, guided down to about 52.0% from 52.7% as recent acquisitions dilute it, decides how much of that growth reaches cash for a balance sheet that keeps adding debt to fund acquisitions.
Leverage falls from 5.9x to 4.8x over the next four quarters on the starting case.
Free cash flow of $2.93bn is projected over the next year, enough to cover the $875mm of debt due in that time.
Net debt shrinks from $31.61bn to $28.68bn; maturing debt is assumed refinanced unless changed in the model.
Liquidity a year out is $6.08bn, against $3.14bn today.
Company guidance for fiscal 2027: adjusted EBITDA of $6.20bn to $6.35bn on its own definition.
Due inside a year: Trade Receivable Securitization Facility ($875mm).
Built from the inputs on the Projections tab of the model; change them there. A starting case from history, not a forecast.
Liquidity after maturities and a year of cash flow
$3,913.0
Tranches are from the debt table in the latest quarterly or annual report.Blue figures are inputs in the model. Price is 100% of face unless marked *, which is a bond fund's own valuation from its SEC holdings report, not a traded price.Secured and unsecured are judged from each instrument's name. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus D&A, stock compensation, restructuring and impairment charges as tagged in SEC filings; it is not the company's own adjusted figure. Free cash flow is cash from operations less capital spending.
The basket review for this company has not finished yet. When it does, this tab shows the dollar capacity to move value or prime lenders, the playbook moves that fit, and what they would do to each tranche. Meanwhile, see the liability management playbook.
Commercial aftermarket sales growth% year over year (reported)
8.0
21.1
30.6
28.3
14.0
14.0
14.0
14.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
$8.6mm on revenue
482
Defense sales growth% year over year (reported)
17.4
20.9
19.2
19.9
14.0
14.0
14.0
14.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
$11.2mm on revenue
627
Commercial OEM sales growth% year over year (reported)
15.6
11.0
18.6
21.4
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
$6.1mm on revenue
390
EBITDA As Defined margin% of net sales
52.4
52.6
52.8
53.0
52.0
52.0
52.0
52.0
52.0
52.0
52.0
52.0
$-30.1mm on cost of revenue
84
TransDigm's credit rides on how fast its three end markets grow into a fiscal 2027 guide of $11.95bn to $12.15bn of sales and $6.2bn to $6.35bn of EBITDA As Defined, which carries about $2.26bn of net interest. Commercial aftermarket is the swing factor because it is the highest-margin channel and grew 28% to 31% reported in the last two quarters with acquisitions, while the guide assumes only high single digits; defense, now the largest channel at 43% of sales, and a still-recovering Boeing and Airbus build rate set the rest. The EBITDA As Defined margin, guided down to about 52.0% from 52.7% as recent acquisitions dilute it, decides how much of that growth reaches cash for a balance sheet that keeps adding debt to fund acquisitions.
Bottoms-Up Projections: starting case
$ in millions
1Q26A
2Q26A
3Q26A
4Q26A
1Q27E
2Q27E
3Q27E
4Q27E
1Q28E
2Q28E
3Q28E
4Q28E
Revenue
$2,285
$2,544
$2,741
$2,988
$2,660
$2,919
$3,116
$3,363
$2,879
$3,138
$3,335
$3,582
Y/Y Growth
13.9%
18.3%
22.5%
22.6%
16.4%
14.7%
13.7%
12.5%
8.2%
7.5%
7.0%
6.5%
Adj. EBITDA
$1,169
$1,309
$1,410
$1,513
$1,348
$1,481
$1,518
$1,653
$1,448
$1,582
$1,616
$1,753
Margin
51.2%
51.5%
51.4%
50.6%
50.7%
50.7%
48.7%
49.1%
50.3%
50.4%
48.5%
48.9%
Free Cash Flow
$772
$64
$650
$427
$591
$716
$748
$876
$685
$812
$841
$971
Cash, end of period
2,528
3,884
2,773
2,279
2,870
3,586
4,334
5,211
5,896
6,708
7,549
8,520
Total Debt, end of period
29,322
31,279
32,760
33,890
33,890
33,890
33,890
33,890
33,890
33,890
33,890
33,890
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA
5.6x
5.5x
5.8x
5.9x
5.6x
5.3x
5.0x
4.8x
4.6x
4.4x
4.2x
4.0x
Revenue is built from one revenue line, each driven by volume and by price and mix against the same quarter a year earlier. Every cost line, interest, taxes, capital spending and working capital has its own input on the Projections tab of the model. This is a starting case built from history, not a forecast.
Earnings call: Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026) · Nov 10, 2026
TransDigm beat its own Q4 guidance on 14% organic growth, guided fiscal 2027 EBITDA As Defined up 13%, and pushed out most of its 2028 secured notes with a $3.0 billion 2035 issue, while net leverage stayed near 5.9x.
Takeaways
Q4 net sales rose 23% to $2,988 million, with 14% organic growth. Pro forma commercial OEM grew 15%, commercial aftermarket 17% and defense 12%. Full-year sales rose 20% to $10,557 million.
Margins slipped on acquisition dilution. Q4 EBITDA As Defined rose 20% to $1,583 million, but the margin fell to 53.0% from 54.2%. Management puts recent deal dilution at about two points. The fiscal 2027 guide implies about 52.0%.
Interest cost is rising faster than earnings. Q4 net interest expense jumped 28% to $536 million and GAAP net income fell 4% to $586 million. Fiscal 2027 net interest is guided near $2.255 billion versus $2.008 billion in fiscal 2026.
Leverage is high and roughly steady. Total debt was about $35.0 billion at September 30, or 6.3x EBITDA As Defined, and 5.9x net of $2,279 million cash. Net secured leverage was 4.3x.
Capital deployment was heavy. The company spent about $4.4 billion on acquisitions in fiscal 2026, including Prince Izant for about $1.07 billion in September, and about $2.8 billion on buybacks. Cash fell from $2,808 million a year earlier.
Operating cash flow rose to $2,187 million from $2,038 million. Fiscal 2027 capital spending is guided at $365 million to $395 million.
Debt and capital
In late September the company sold $3.0 billion of 6.75% senior secured notes due January 2035 and used the proceeds to buy back about $1.8 billion of its $2.1 billion 6.75% secured notes due 2028. A $269 million stub of the 2028 notes remains.
Debt at September 30 was about $35.0 billion: $12.8 billion of first-lien term loans maturing 2030 to 2033, $12.7 billion of secured notes, $8.3 billion of senior subordinated notes and an $875 million receivables facility.
Liquidity includes $2,279 million of cash and an undrawn $910 million revolver due February 2029. The $1.0 billion receivables facility renews each July.
The weighted average interest rate was 6.1% in fiscal 2026 and is forecast at 6.5% for fiscal 2027. About 75% of gross debt is fixed or hedged through fiscal 2029 using swaps and collars.
The nearest sizeable maturities are the 2029 notes: $2.75 billion of 6.375% secured notes plus $1.95 billion of subordinated notes.
Q4 buybacks were $943 million for about 820 thousand shares at an average of $1,150. No leverage target or new buyback authorization was set out in the materials.
Guidance
First fiscal 2027 guide issued, so there is no prior range to compare against.
Net sales $11,950 million to $12,150 million, up 14% at the midpoint.
EBITDA As Defined $6,195 million to $6,345 million, up 13% at the midpoint, about a 52.0% margin.
Net income $2,442 million to $2,490 million; adjusted EPS $47.09 to $47.94.
Market assumptions: commercial OEM up high single digits to low double digits; commercial aftermarket and defense each up high single digits.
Other assumptions: net interest expense about $2.255 billion, tax rate 22% to 24%, capex $365 million to $395 million, 56.7 million weighted shares.
Q4 sales and EBITDA As Defined came in above the high end of the most recent fiscal 2026 guidance.
Tone: Confident and growth focused, with management stressing broad end-market strength and ample room to keep funding M&A and buybacks on a highly levered balance sheet.
Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026), call August 4, 2026Slides · Webcast
Q2 FY2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026), call May 5, 2026Slides · Webcast
Q1 FY2026 (quarter ended December 31, 2025), call February 3, 2026Slides · Webcast
Summary written with AI from Press release and slides only. TransDigm does not publish a call transcript or prepared remarks on its IR site or with the SEC.. Slides, audio and any transcript are the company's and open on its own site. Full transcripts from transcript vendors are not reproduced here.
Last quarter: Fourth quarter fiscal 2026
Sales rose 23% and EBITDA As Defined rose 20%, both above the top of guidance, while debt grew to fund acquisitions and buybacks.
Results
Net sales were $2,988mm, up 23% from $2,437mm a year earlier. Organic growth was 14%.
EBITDA As Defined was $1,583mm, up 20% from $1,320mm. The margin was 53.0% against 54.2% a year earlier.
Net income fell 4% to $586mm from $609mm. Net interest expense rose to $536mm from $420mm and the tax provision rose to $192mm from $143mm.
For fiscal 2026, net sales were $10,557mm (up 20%) and EBITDA As Defined was $5,563mm (up 17%), a 52.7% margin.
Cash from operations for the full year was $2,187mm against $2,038mm in fiscal 2025. The release gives no quarterly cash flow, capital spending, free cash flow, total liquidity or net leverage figure.
Why
Acquisitions added to sales. The company put about $4.4bn into deals in fiscal 2026, including Simmonds Precision Products, Jet Parts Engineering, Victor Sierra Aviation and Prince & Izant.
Recent acquisitions carry lower margins. The company says they diluted the EBITDA As Defined margin by about two percentage points.
Add-backs to EBITDA rose to $147mm from $51mm, mainly acquisition costs of $36mm, refinancing costs of $27mm and other items of $44mm.
Management said fourth quarter sales and EBITDA As Defined both came in above the high end of its most recent guidance.
Balance sheet and guidance
Cash was $2,279mm at September 30, 2026, down from $2,808mm a year earlier.
Long-term debt was $33,743mm, up from $29,167mm. The current portion was $147mm and the receivables securitization facility was $873mm.
In September the company issued $3.0bn of 6.75% senior secured notes due January 2035 and used the proceeds to buy back about $1.8bn of its $2.1bn 6.75% secured notes due 2028. It also paid about $1.07bn in cash for Prince & Izant and bought back $943mm of stock in the quarter.
First guidance for fiscal 2027: net sales of $11,950mm to $12,150mm, against $10,557mm in fiscal 2026.
EBITDA As Defined of $6,195mm to $6,345mm, against $5,563mm in fiscal 2026. That implies a margin of about 52.0%.
Net income of $2,442mm to $2,490mm. The midpoint reconciliation assumes net interest expense of $2,255mm.
Assumes commercial OEM sales growth in the high single digits to low double digits, and commercial aftermarket and defense growth each in the high single digits.
This is a new fiscal year, so there is no earlier range to compare. During fiscal 2026 the company raised its guidance in each of the first three quarters. No free cash flow or capital spending guidance is given in the release.
What to watch
Interest cost. Net interest expense was $2,008mm in fiscal 2026 and the guidance reconciliation assumes $2,255mm in fiscal 2027, while balance sheet debt rose by about $4.7bn in the year.
Margin. The fiscal 2027 guide implies an EBITDA As Defined margin of about 52.0%, below the 52.7% reported for fiscal 2026, as acquired businesses weigh on the mix.
Use of cash. The company spent more than $7bn on acquisitions and buybacks in fiscal 2026 and says it has room for more. About $0.3bn of the 6.75% secured notes due 2028 remain after the tender.
From the company's press release filed Nov 10, 2026. Figures in this section are as the company reports them, including its own adjusted EBITDA.
Links open the document on SEC EDGAR. Earnings call transcripts are not SEC filings and belong to their publishers, so they are not reproduced here; the press release and slides filed with each results 8-K are.
Coming up
Feb 2, 2027Results. Quarterly results for the period ending 2026-12-31. The date is an estimate: last year's filing date moved forward a year.